AP
By Hugh Falk, Pollspeak.com
The computers and humans clearly disagree about who is No. 1. The three human polls (including the AP) all have Oklahoma in the top spot. Three of the four released BCS computers have Alabama No. 1 (LSU is first in the Billingsley Report). It's this type of disagreement that's going to cause a Terminator-style takeover by the machines someday.
The biggest disparity among the computers this week involves Florida, which is ranked 11th by Harris Interactive but 67th by the Massey Ratings. So which teams do the computers like?
Northwestern is generally getting far more respect from computers: No. 2 in Massey, No. 4 in the Colley Matrix and No. 15 in Sagarin (ELO). Yet the Wildcats are unranked in every human poll.
Sagarin loves non-BCS teams, with Utah at No. 2, Boise State No. 4 and TCU No. 18. Colley thinks highly of Vanderbilt (No. 2), South Florida (No. 7) and Ball State (No. 12). The Billingsley Report treats two of last week's upset losers the best, ranking USC fourth and Georgia sixth. Massey likes the ACC and Big East; Duke is seventh, Virginia Tech eighth, and Connecticut 10th. Massey also includes FCS schools and actually has Cornell No. 24.
Let's see what the voters think by looking at the AP poll (which is currently the only one with public ballots, so it gives us an idea how human voters think):
Looking at last week's top 10 upsets, Bret Bloomquist of the El Paso Times punished Georgia the hardest for the Alabama loss, slotting the Dawgs 18th. Barker Davis (Washington Times) penalized Florida the most, also to No. 18. Doug Segrest (Birmingham News) and Glenn Guilbeau (Gannett Louisiana) dropped Wisconsin all the way to No. 25, and Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News) dropped USC to 15th after the Oregon State loss.
Excluding Georgia, those voters are much nicer than the toughest computers, which doled out these rankings:
Team Lowest Rank
Florida No. 67 (Massey)
Georgia No. 17 (Colley)
USC No. 42 (Colley)
Wisconsin No. 32 (Massey)
The following AP voters ranked losers over winners in head-to-head matchups even though the winner has the same number (or fewer) losses:
• Herb Gould (Chicago Sun-Times) ranks Ohio State (No. 8) over USC (No. 14).
• Randy Rosetta (Baton Rouge Advocate) and Pete DiPrimio (Fort Wayne News-Sentinel) rank Oregon over Boise State.
• Joe Rexrode (Lansing State Journal) has Kansas (No. 14) over South Florida (No. 15).
• Guilbeau, John Hunt (Oregonian) and Randy Harrison (Albuquerque Journal) have Florida State over Wake Forest.
• Six voters rank Fresno State over Wisconsin, but Scott Wolf (Los Angeles Daily News) has the largest margin (Bulldogs at No. 16 and Badgets at No. 24).
In the Coaches' Poll:
Coaches' Pets (ranked highest in the BCS):
• Missouri: No. 3
• BYU: No. 7
• Oregon: No. 20
Coaches' Goats (ranked lowest in the BCS):
• Alabama: No. 4
• Virginia Tech: No. 24
Finally, the biggest poll news this week is the release of another BCS component: the Harris Interactive College Football Poll (HICFP). You can find the list of Harris voters on its site, but here is a quick breakdown of the changes from last year.
Harris voters gave the highest BCS rankings to Florida (No. 11), Wisconsin (No. 16) and Fresno State (No. 20). Amazingly, they didn't vote anybody lowest in the BCS top 25. Harris Interactive does a good job of selecting voters based on conference affiliation. It is by far the most comprehensive selection process, and aside from using secret ballots, the HICFP is a solid poll. I just hope it can hold its own against a T-1000 when the machines revolt.
Tatiana Golovin
Alison Preston
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Back in Time: July 3
Comments (18) Add A Comment
I agree with the computers. Maybe when OU deserves the top spot if/when it beats up on UT, Mizzou, and KU. TCU is a solid-not-great opponent, while Bama just beat up a stellar Georgia team. It's mostly early-season poll inertia that's got the Sooners as #1.
Pac10Vagabond
Gladstone , OR
Total Comments (15)
"Sagarin loves" - you're basing this statement on the ELO-CHESS column, which only exists because the BSC demanded a set of ratings that does not include margin of victory. Sagarin describes it as the "politically correct" column. If you want to know what Sagarin loves, check the PREDICTOR column instead.
By looking at PREDICTOR instead of ELO-CHESS, Utah isn't #2, they're #25, Boise isn't #4, they're #13, and TCU is #10 instead of #18.
Other examples include GT being rated at #9 instead of #26, and LSU being rated at #19 instead of #3.
TechRules
Tallahassee , FL
Total Comments (1)
Clearly when Skynet is operational and computers take over, they will spare Northwestern because it is the best college football team in the country.
GO CATS! 5-0! Purple to Pasadena!
Chaddogg
Chicago, IL
Total Comments (6)
I agree as well. While I don't merit a 8-spot increase for beat Georgia, I still think they're the most deserving of No. 1. OU is a solid team and is playing great. I don't care who they've played. Scoring 50 at Washington and against a Cincy team returning 10 starters from one of the nation's best defenses a year ago is amazing.
But 'Bama has looked incredible. I'm a die-hard Sooner fan, and while I usually get irritated when people throw in "well I'm a fan of so-and-so and think think that so-and-so is right," I feel it's called for in this instance.
Going "between the hedges," I wasn't completely sold on 'Bama. A blowout against 3-2 Clemson? A soft win against Tulan? A blowout against a bad Arkansas team (Texas beat them even worse -52-10 - albeit it being in Austin vs. Fayettville) was to be expected. I was looking for the true 'Bama to be exposed Saturday against UGA. I couldn't have been more wrong.
Instead, the only thing exposed was how well 'Bama plays in the trenches. They controled the ball and Georgia's defense couldn't touch Parker-Wilson. On the other side, a young inexperienced Georgia offensive line was lit up by 'Bama defenders. The only negative you find in this game is Georgia managing to score 17 unanswered in the second half and that the 'Bama defensive line is still fairly untested. Until they go up against a solid offensive line, LSU perhaps, or Florida, we can't truely tell were the defensive line is. But my bet is that they're pretty damn good.
At this point, an OU-'Bama national title looks pretty intriguing. OU has arguably the nation's best offensive and defensive line, but it's obvious 'Bama can challenge them. Both have play markers and savvy quarterbacks. Both have talented defenses. What a game that would be.
PTHoopster
Glencoe, OK
Total Comments (26)
It's been said before: computers need data, and there's not going to be enough data to work with till at least half-way through the season. Humans, on the other hand, just pick the teams they like most (which has nothing to do, necessarily, with how good they might be). :D
Of course, unless 2 teams actually decide on the field which is better, no one--human or computer--can tell which is "better" (aka "Why the BCS stinks and only a playoff system is desirable" :D).
GlennAllen
Richmond , VA
Total Comments (198)
Fair point and thanks for clarifying. I was definitely referring to the rating system and not the man. Just trying to be less verbose, but I could have said "Sagarin's ELO-CHESS ratings, which are those used by the BCS, love..." I guess that's one of the downsides about being so closely identified with your rating system.
Maybe he should have come up with a cool marketing name like "SEC", which stands for Sagarin Elo-Chess. Oh, and then he could call the formulas for SEC, "The SEC Rules". Hmmmm....on second thought.... :-)
Pollspeak
Total Comments (15)
OU *HAS* beat UT, Mizzou and KU. Where have you been??
OUGirl
Owasso , OK
Total Comments (1)
Pretty sure comment #1 was referring to *THIS YEAR*.
ChunkyChuck
Total Comments (7)
Georgia is not a great team. They have a weak offense and their defense in highly overrated, as shown by the 'Bama blowout AT HOME!
The SEC is very average this year. Offensively everyone is horrendous except for 'Bama, LSU, and Florida, but Florida and LSU aren't consistent. Tennessee, Miss State, Ole Miss, and Auburn are all horrible. QB play in the SEC is pathetic. Non conference teams have scored just as much on SEC teams as SEC has scored on themselves. It's a joke.
Knock Texas' schedule all you want so far, but they've played against far better offenses than LSU, Florida, and Alabama have and still have better defensive stats. And as far as OU goes, I'd put TCU's defense up against any SEC offense any day.
Horn'em
Veradale , WA
Total Comments (42)
I'd put TCU's defense against any SEC defense for that matter also.
Horn'em
Veradale , WA
Total Comments (42)
You can plug all of the data into a computer but it will never give you accurate results when it comes to sports because there is always the u factor in sports; the uncertainty factor. For that you need the gut feeling that a computer doesn't have. That's why I go for the human poll.
dolphinfansteve
Hollywood , FL
Total Comments (1)
Screw the computers... screw the polls, and let the terminator destroy the BCS! There is only one answer and it starts with a P...
Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF!
Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF!
Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF!
Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF!
Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF!
mj says abc sux
Columbia, MO
Total Comments (24)
Playoff won't happen anytime soon (if at all). But if a playoff did happen (say 10 years from now) how would we determine who gets into the playoff? BCS Standings? So get used to dealing with the BCS for the rest of your pre-robot-enslaved life.
Pollspeak
Total Comments (15)
#13, it's easy if you don't care about keeping the bowls happy. 16 teams. All 11 conference champs. 5 at-large selected and seeding determined by a committee similar to the one used for basketball. Polls and computer rankings for informational purposes only.
CuseFanInSoCal
San Diego , CA
Total Comments (181)
This is so ridiculous...how can any team such as Cornell even come close to even comparing to a Big Ten team, even at most the SEC....these computers putting TCU who just got killed still in the rankings... they might statistically have a great defense but put them up against the big boys and they will get slammed like High School's vs Pro's
Piddy Smokes
Denver , CO
Total Comments (1)
#15, computer rankings are wonky early in the season, especially when, like the computer rankings used for the BCS, they can't use margin of victory.
CuseFanInSoCal
San Diego , CA
Total Comments (181)
CuseFanInSoCal, your playoff sytem in #14 sounds fine, but is invalidated because you say "if you don't care about keeping the bowls happy..." because "they" do care. They are the schools. The bowls keep the conferences happy, and the conferences keep the schools happy. That's one reason it won't happen any time soon (or at all). So that's a huge "IF" you threw out there. That's like saying, "If we lived on some other planet..."
Pollspeak
Total Comments (15)
The thing is that there's no good reason for the schools and conferences to care about the bowls anymore. The last vestiges of traditional matchups in bowls died with the BCS (where the Big Ten champ has played the Pac 10 champ in the Rose Bowl all of once in the BCS era -- and that was because the computers jobbed Southern Cal out of the BCS title game), and the schools, conferences, and TV networks would undoubtedly make more money with playoffs.
CuseFanInSoCal
San Diego , CA
Total Comments (181)
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