Humans vs. computers: What the polls say

2008-10-01T10:24:08-04:00

2008-09-29T13:45:26-04:00

2008-10-01T10:24:08-04:00

181

CuseFanInSoCal

San Diego 190925

18 The thing is that there's no good reason for the schools and conferences to care about the bowls anymore. The last vestiges of traditional matchups in bowls died with the BCS (where the Big Ten champ has played the Pac 10 champ in the Rose Bowl all of once in the BCS era -- and that was because the computers jobbed Southern Cal out of the BCS title game), and the schools, conferences, and TV networks would undoubtedly make more money with playoffs. 2948638

2008-09-30T23:15:01-04:00

Pollspeak

169617

17 CuseFanInSoCal, your playoff sytem in #14 sounds fine, but is invalidated because you say "if you don't care about keeping the bowls happy..." because "they" do care. They are the schools. The bowls keep the conferences happy, and the conferences keep the schools happy. That's one reason it won't happen any time soon (or at all). So that's a huge "IF" you threw out there. That's like saying, "If we lived on some other planet..." 2946568

2008-09-30T22:47:21-04:00

181

CuseFanInSoCal

San Diego 190925

16 #15, computer rankings are wonky early in the season, especially when, like the computer rankings used for the BCS, they can't use margin of victory. 2946509

2008-09-30T16:23:20-04:00

Piddy Smokes

Denver 571291

15 This is so ridiculous...how can any team such as Cornell even come close to even comparing to a Big Ten team, even at most the SEC....these computers putting TCU who just got killed still in the rankings... they might statistically have a great defense but put them up against the big boys and they will get slammed like High School's vs Pro's 2944770

2008-09-30T13:33:29-04:00

181

CuseFanInSoCal

San Diego 190925

14 #13, it's easy if you don't care about keeping the bowls happy. 16 teams. All 11 conference champs. 5 at-large selected and seeding determined by a committee similar to the one used for basketball. Polls and computer rankings for informational purposes only. 2942249

2008-09-30T11:54:36-04:00

Pollspeak

169617

13 Playoff won't happen anytime soon (if at all). But if a playoff did happen (say 10 years from now) how would we determine who gets into the playoff? BCS Standings? So get used to dealing with the BCS for the rest of your pre-robot-enslaved life. 2940974

2008-09-30T11:12:38-04:00

mj says abc sux

columbia 490612

12 Screw the computers... screw the polls, and let the terminator destroy the BCS! There is only one answer and it starts with a P... Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! Playoff! Playoff! PLAYOFF! 2940318

2008-09-30T06:48:38-04:00

dolphinfansteve

Hollywood 571061

11 You can plug all of the data into a computer but it will never give you accurate results when it comes to sports because there is always the u factor in sports; the uncertainty factor. For that you need the gut feeling that a computer doesn't have. That's why I go for the human poll. 2938258

2008-09-30T05:01:05-04:00

Horn'em

Veradale 477259

10 I'd put TCU's defense against any SEC defense for that matter also. 2938207

2008-09-30T04:59:59-04:00

Horn'em

Veradale 477259

9 Georgia is not a great team. They have a weak offense and their defense in highly overrated, as shown by the 'Bama blowout AT HOME! The SEC is very average this year. Offensively everyone is horrendous except for 'Bama, LSU, and Florida, but Florida and LSU aren't consistent. Tennessee, Miss State, Ole Miss, and Auburn are all horrible. QB play in the SEC is pathetic. Non conference teams have scored just as much on SEC teams as SEC has scored on themselves. It's a joke. Knock Texas' schedule all you want so far, but they've played against far better offenses than LSU, Florida, and Alabama have and still have better defensive stats. And as far as OU goes, I'd put TCU's defense up against any SEC offense any day. 2938206

<div class="photo_container image_center"> <div class="photo"><img src="http://img.fannation.com/upload/si_blog_post_images/alabama.jpg" alt="Alabama" width="614" height="378" /></div> <div class="photo_attributes">Javier Arenas' Alabama team is ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, but three BCS computers put the Tide on top. AP</div> </div>     By Hugh Falk, <a href="http://pollspeak.com/" target="_blank">Pollspeak.com</a> The computers and humans clearly disagree about who is No. 1. The three human polls (including the AP) all have <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&v=0&t1=75&w=6&r=T" target="_blank">Oklahoma</a> in the top spot.  Three of the four released BCS computers have <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&v=0&t1=3&w=6&r=T" target="_blank">Alabama</a> No. 1 (<a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&t1=49&v=403&w=6&r=T" target="_blank">LSU</a> is first in the <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&t1=0&t2=0&v=403&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Billingsley Report</a>).  It's this type of disagreement that's going to cause a Terminator-style takeover by the machines someday. The biggest disparity among the computers this week involves <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&v=0&t1=27&w=6&r=T" target="_blank">Florida</a>, which is ranked 11th by <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&t1=71&t2=&v=189&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Harris Interactive</a> but 67th by the <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&t1=71&t2=&v=405&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Massey Ratings</a>. So which teams do the computers like? <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&v=0&t1=71&w=6&r=T" target="_blank">Northwestern</a> is generally getting far more respect from computers: No. 2 in Massey, No. 4 in the <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&t1=71&t2=&v=404&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Colley Matrix</a> and No. 15 in <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&t1=71&t2=&v=402&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Sagarin (ELO)</a>. Yet the Wildcats are unranked in every human poll. Sagarin loves non-BCS teams, with Utah at No. 2, Boise State No. 4 and TCU No. 18. Colley thinks highly of Vanderbilt (No. 2), South Florida (No. 7) and Ball State (No. 12). The Billingsley Report treats two of last week's upset losers the best, ranking USC fourth and Georgia sixth. Massey likes the ACC and Big East; Duke is seventh, Virginia Tech eighth, and Connecticut 10th.  Massey also includes FCS schools and actually has Cornell No. 24. Let's see what the voters think by looking at the AP poll (which is currently the only one with public ballots, so it gives us an idea how human voters think): Looking at last week's top 10 upsets, <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=0&t2=0&v=8&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Bret Bloomquist</a> of the El Paso Times punished <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&v=0&t1=32&w=6&r=T" target="_blank">Georgia</a> the hardest for the Alabama loss, slotting the Dawgs 18th. <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=0&t2=0&v=7&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Barker Davis</a> (Washington Times) penalized Florida the most, also to No. 18. <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=0&t2=0&v=377&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Doug Segrest</a> (Birmingham News) and <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=0&t2=0&v=23&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Glenn Guilbeau</a> (Gannett Louisiana) dropped Wisconsin all the way to No. 25, and <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=0&t2=0&v=35&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Jon Wilner</a> (San Jose Mercury News) dropped <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&v=0&t1=105&w=6&r=T" target="_blank">USC</a> to 15th after the Oregon State loss.  Excluding Georgia, those voters are much nicer than the toughest computers, which doled out these rankings: Team         Lowest Rank Florida       No. 67 (Massey) Georgia     No. 17 (Colley) USC           No. 42 (Colley) Wisconsin  No. 32 (Massey) The following AP voters ranked losers over winners in head-to-head matchups even though the winner has the same number (or fewer) losses: • <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=12&t2=77&v=24&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Herb Gould</a> (Chicago Sun-Times) ranks Ohio State (No. 8) over USC (No. 14). • <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=12&t2=77&v=142&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Randy Rosetta</a> (Baton Rouge Advocate) and <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=12&t2=77&v=51&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Pete DiPrimio</a> (Fort Wayne News-Sentinel) rank Oregon over Boise State. • <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=106&t2=41&v=389&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Joe Rexrode</a> (Lansing State Journal) has Kansas (No. 14) over South Florida (No. 15). • Guilbeau, <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=30&t2=113&v=33&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">John Hunt</a> (Oregonian) and <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=30&t2=113&v=393&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Randy Harrison</a> (Albuquerque Journal) have Florida State over Wake Forest. • Six voters rank Fresno State over Wisconsin, but <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=31&t2=118&v=57&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Scott Wolf</a> (Los Angeles Daily News) has the largest margin (Bulldogs at No. 16 and Badgets at No. 24). In the Coaches' Poll: Coaches' Pets (ranked highest in the BCS): • Missouri: No. 3 • BYU: No. 7 • Oregon: No. 20 Coaches' Goats (ranked lowest in the BCS): • Alabama: No. 4 • Virginia Tech: No. 24 Finally, the biggest poll news this week is the release of another BCS component: the <a href="http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=8&t1=71&t2=&v=189&w=6&r=V" target="_blank">Harris Interactive College Football Poll</a> (HICFP).  You can find the list of Harris voters <a href="http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/newsletters/bcsnews/BCS_Sept_17_2008.pdf" target="_blank">on its site</a>, but <a href="http://www.pollspeak.com/data/HarrisVoterChanges.htm" target="_blank">here is a quick breakdown</a> of the changes from last year. Harris voters gave the highest BCS rankings to Florida (No. 11), Wisconsin (No. 16) and Fresno State (No. 20). Amazingly, they didn't vote anybody lowest in the BCS top 25.  Harris Interactive does a good job of selecting voters based on conference affiliation.  It is by far the most comprehensive selection process, and aside from using secret ballots, the HICFP is a solid poll. I just hope it can hold its own against a T-1000 when the machines revolt. 9401

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