Who's the hottest team in the Final Four? It looks like North Carolina, but my assessment may be affected by the fact that I just spent last weekend watching the Tar Heels in Memphis. I turned to the efficiency numbers for a second opinion, plotting out each of the four teams' efficiency margins for their past three NCAA tournament games (throwing out the first round because, well, a UNC-Radford or UConn-Chattanooga rout just blows up the stats) and found that, efficiency-wise, it is the Heels:
North Carolina
Opponent Poss OffPPP DefPPP EM
LSU 68 1.241 1.034 .207
Gonzaga 78 1.254 0.986 .268
Oklahoma 65 1.115 0.929 .186
Total 211 .223
UConn
Opponent Poss OffPPP DefPPP EM
Texas A&M 66 1.400 1.005 .395
Purdue 70 1.025 0.854 .171
Missouri 75 1.085 0.994 .091
Total 211 .213
Villanova
Opponent Poss OffPPP DefPPP EM
UCLA 73 1.219 0.945 .274
Duke 74 1.042 0.731 .311
Pitt 67 1.171 1.141 .030
Total 214 .210
Michigan State
Opponent Poss OffPPP DefPPP EM
USC 68 1.084 1.010 .074
Kansas 67 1.006 0.931 .075
Louisville 56 1.135 0.922 .213
Total 191 .115
What we learned from the table above:
• Carolina has been the steadiest team, dominating in each of the past three rounds, while each of the other Final Four clubs has had a close call -- or, at least, one game where the Efficiency Margin was less that 0.10 points per possession.
• UConn started out as the hottest team, blitzing Chattanooga and then Texas A&M in the second round, but the Huskies have been coming back down to earth as the competition has gotten stronger.
• Michigan State, meanwhile, has been the least-hot team between the second round and Elite Eight, but the Spartans played their strongest basketball in the Elite Eight against Louisville. They could be coming to life at the right time.
• Villanova put on the best, single-game defensive performance of any Final Four team when it dismantled Duke in the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils were held to just 0.731 points per possession. For comparison, North Carolina, in its Sweet 16 game against Gonzaga, let the Zags score 0.986 points per possession.



Eva De Goede and Ellen Hoog
Jessica Gomes


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