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  • 05/24/2007, 05:29PM ET

Who will win the French Open: Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer?

Jon Wertheim (1-0-0) vs S. L. Price (0-1-0)
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Federer is owed the Swiss equivalent of "mad props" for finally solving the Nadal riddle and beating his nemesis in clay. In taking the Hamburg title last weekend, the Fed raised interest rates headed into the French Open and breathed new life back into the best rivalry in men's tennis since Sampras-Agassi. Still, let's hold onto our bandanas here. Even coming off a loss-which will likely infuse him with that much more motivation-Nadal has won 81 or his last 82 claycourt matches. He is the two-time defending champion in Paris. The fast red clay is ideally suited to his topspin-heavy game. His superior conditioning benefits from the best-of-five format. The current stalemate in men's tennis is something out of classical mythology. No matter how much Nadal wins on clay, he will never be No.1, not so long as Federer is around. And no matter how thoroughly Federer dominates, he will never win that elusive Roland Garros title, not so long as Nadal is around. So it goes...


"Mad props?" The guy deserves a medal. The men's tour has grappled with two weirdly contradictory themes over the past couple years: Federer's inevitability and Nadal's dominance over him, and for things to remain locked up that way would've been deadly for the game. Federer's win in Hamburg tossed all the chips into air as we head onto Roland Garros. Nothing seems predictable, suddenly, and that's all to the good. I'm putting my money on the Fed, though, because it makes absolutely no sense for him to win the French Open now. His spring has been filled with losses, he's adjusting to a new racket, he just fired his, er, coach, Tony Roche: The man's a mess, right? And then, right smack in the midst of all that, he waxes Nadal in Hamburg in a way we've never seen the Spaniard go down. That tells me plenty. Roger has been a bit bored by all that winning the last few years, and all these mini-crises have snapped him awake. It's a dangerous thing to have the world's most talented player feel he's an underdog, that he has no choice but to fight, that he has something to prove. But that's what we have now.


"It's a dangerous thing to have the world's most talented player feel he's an underdog, that he has no choice but to fight, that he has something to prove." Doesn't that describe Nadal on clay? The guy has still won 81 of his last 82 clay court matches, including every match he's ever played at Roland Garros. This spring he played more tennis than anyone should be allowed to play--some of it owing to his unshakable habit of winning; some of it attributed to the nonsensical ATP calendar. Midway through his 20th singles match in barely a month, he runs out of gas in the final. Suddenly amnesia kicks in and he's no longer the player to beat in Paris?


Actually, no, it doesn't describe Nadal. He's not the underdog here, and at Roland Garros he has nothing to prove. Everyone knows he's the king of clay, and now that you mention it, his exhaustion over the past month is yet another reason why Federer is my bet here. And let's not underrate the transformative power of one match. Andre Agassi won in Paris in 1999, and that, in essence, rejiggered the conversation on his entire career. Nadal nearly beat Federer on a hardcourt in Miami in 2005 and it convinced him, and everyone else, that he could battle the man on any surface. As for amnesia, I haven't forgotten that he's the player to beat in Paris. I just happen to know a player who can beat him.


Novak Djokovic? You want to bring him into this, now? One tangential observation about Nadal-Federer, before this point-counterpoint devolves into "Jane, you ignorant slut" territory. I read a report that after Federer won in Hamburg- essentially on the eve of a Grand Slam!-- Nadal approached him and, in the soccer football tradition, asked him his autographed jersey.

Rivalries in sport tend to polarize fans, Roe v. Wade debates that demand taking sides. No one is Yankees AND Red Sox, Ohio State AND Michigan, Man U AND Real Madrid. In the case of Nadal-Federer it's pretty hard to summon much disdain for either guy. And, thus, it is entirely reasonable to root for both of them to win. Just that in this case it will be the Spanish guy with the stringy hair and the wedgie.


Wow, Novak. You really know how to hurt a guy. Personally, I thought the devolution was leading more into Airplane! territory ("Shana, they paid for their tickets; I say let them crash!") Look, I'm right there with you; the odd thing about this Throwdown is that it revolves around two guys who have managed to keep their rivalry free of in-your-face, "Quien es mas macho?" posturing. Their mutual respect is palpable, almost to the extent that it leaves fans confused. When these guys play, they force us to focus on the tennis, not the far easier quirks of personality or clothing. This makes for great technical drama, but it hasn't quite gotten personal yet; save for Fed's one-time complaint about Rafa's coaching, there's no hint of animus in the air. The greatest rivalries, like Sampras-Agassi, have that extra spice.

But maybe that changes here. Federer knows the clock is ticking, and he'll be full of confidence after that 6-0 third in Hamburg. He'll do what he's supposed to do at last: Tuck away his hair (believe me, it's just as much an issue with him as it is with Nadal), serve out the match, and send Senor Wedgie packing.

May 24, 2007  06:10 PM ET

Nadal wins it again!

May 24, 2007  06:56 PM ET

Do they even play tennis in the states?

May 24, 2007  08:48 PM ET

i love the EAGLES

May 24, 2007  08:49 PM ET

i hate New york so neither of u guys get my vote

May 24, 2007  09:08 PM ET

Nadal, Nadal, Nadal!

May 24, 2007  09:08 PM ET

Ferderer is still the best overall player in the world, but Nadal is fantastic on clay and is also 6-3 lifetime against Federer.

May 24, 2007  10:23 PM ET

Yes we do play tennis over here, thats why we have the U.S. Open

May 25, 2007  12:57 AM ET

i say nadal takes it. he's an animal.

May 25, 2007  01:09 AM ET

I think Nadal is the better clay court player, but I think Federer takes it this year.

May 25, 2007  08:08 AM ET

Rafa.

May 25, 2007  09:19 AM ET

A tennis throwdown?!?! Sissy fight, sissy fight. LOL!!

May 25, 2007  11:17 AM ET

What kind of sport is it when the two finalists are so obvious BEFORE the tournament begins? Go Ducks!

May 25, 2007  03:02 PM ET

The bull will rule!

May 25, 2007  04:43 PM ET

Rafa, you beast!! Let's take it for the 3rd time and keep precious Fed from dominating every **** thing!!! This is your house! No one can stop you here.

May 25, 2007  06:15 PM ET

classic: two SI guys going head to head

May 25, 2007  06:48 PM ET

This is Fed's year. I think he has even more surprises in store at the French.

May 25, 2007  07:56 PM ET

Mhh.. intriguing match up... still my head says the Fed. I'm not even sure Nadal will last long enough to see Roger taking it. All the matches between them (withe xception of Rome & Indian Wells) have been determined by how Roger plays not by how well Nadal plays. Like the man himself says, Nadal is consistent.. constistently one-dimensional and very very good at that, so when Roger plays like Roger, we all know what'll happen.

May 26, 2007  12:07 AM ET

Now Roger comes back, and tennis will be awesome again. This year will be Roger's again.

May 26, 2007  12:11 AM ET

Now Roger comes back as Roger again! Tennis will be awesome from now on. Watching Roger plays in every surface is like watching conductor conducts the amazing classical music. This year will be Roger's absolutely , sure!

 
May 26, 2007  12:33 AM ET

Roger Federer is the best all-around tennis player that i have ever seen....Best than my idol Andre Agassi because he has all the weapons needed to be the best among the rest...Yup surely Fed gave us something to look forward to coming to this week's French Open with the man-handling of Rafael Nadal... Not only did he beat him but he dominated Nadal like no other player did... To beat Rafa in a set 6-0 that's something special, meaning roger controls his destiny in winning the French Open... If only his first serve goes in and his backhand is in full speed... then no way can someone beat him, even if that guy is owner of 81 of 82 claycourt matches.. because Federer is simply the best!!!

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