FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Basketball Jesus: CHAMPION! said 01/20, 06:43 PM
Let's talk about Pujols for a second. He's hit over .300 along with 30 HRs and 100 RBIs for 7 straight years. He's obviously one of the best hitters in the game.


Braun's obviously had one of the best rookie seasons, in recent memory. But that's the thing...IT'S JUST ONE SEASON!

In 1930, Wally Berger hit .310 38 HRs and had 119 RBIs in his ROOKIE season. He was probably about just as good as Braun.

What happened after that season? Berger never hit over 35 HRs again, and broke 120 RBIs just twice. He pretty much peaked at his rookie season.

Berger's a bit of an obscure example...so I'll bring up a more contemporary one. Everyone remember Doc Gooden?

Here's what Gooden did for the first 5 years of his career:

91-35 2.62 ERA 1067 Ks

Here's how he did the other 11 years of his career:

103-77 4.14 ERA 1226 Ks

Another incredible dropoff, right? Gooden looked like he was one of the best pitchers in the league. Suddenly he declined.

What's the moral of these two stories? Just because a baseball player comes fast out of the gate, and has 1, or even 5 great seasons, it guarantees ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

Braun looks good now, but wait a couple years before giving the verdict.

Basketball Jesus: CHAMPION! said 01/21, 09:50 AM
Congratulations to Braun for having a solid rookie season, but it means absolutely nothing. For as many great rookies that you listed up there, I can list plenty of rookies that turned out to be busts.

To take a recent example, Anibal Sanchez went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA 2 years ago, and he even pitched a no hitter. How did he do last season? He posted a 4.80 ERA and got demoted to the minors.

Livan Hernandez had a 3.18 ERA in his rookie season. That was the best ERA he'd post in a single season for his entire career. He wasn't necessarily a bust, but his rookie season was likely his best one.

Here are some other young players that were promising, but have turned out to be busts (so far at least):

Kerry Wood
Mark Prior
Clint Barmes
Zach Duke
Dontrelle Willis
Scott Podsednik
Angel Berroa
Jody Gerut
Rick Ankiel (as a pitcher)
Terence Long
Pat Listach
Bob Hamelin
Jerome Walton
Rolando Arrojo
Todd Hollandsworth



All of these players received votes for rookie of the year, and some were rookies of the year. Sure, you have a couple nice examples too, but you definitely can't guarantee Braun's the next Pujols.

Also, it's pretty interesting you have Darryl Strawberry on your list.

Basketball Jesus: CHAMPION! said 01/22, 07:14 AM
"I find it interesting that about 75% of the players you just named were busts only because of injuries, especially your first two examples. And you've been missing the point this whole time."

That's my point! What if Braun does get injured? He wouldn't become the next Pujols then would he?

Look, all those players I listed had great rookie seasons, and turned out to be busts. Rodruiguez has proven himself by performing great year after year. Pujols has done the same. Braun's had 1 great year. JUST 1! I don't care how good it was, YOU can't guarantee he'll be the next Pujols because there's just too many variables.

In fact, there's one thing Braun can't do that Pujols does: walk. Sure, Braun's batting average is nice, but his OBP is a pedestrian .370. Eventually, teams will just start throwing Braun balls out of strike zone, and let Braun swing away.