How many wins will Johan Santana get next year?
badgerfan07 said 02/09, 08:21 PM
I think he'll get 15 wins next year.
Secret Squirrel said 02/09, 08:37 PM
Johan Santana will be a 20 win starter with the Mets in 2008...
badgerfan07 said 02/09, 09:10 PM
I don't think he'll win 20 games next year...look at what Barry Zito did a year ago, just 11 wins. The transfer of going from the AL to the NL is difficult, now he's going to have to worry about hitting on top of pitching...being an NL pitcher takes a lot more strain on a guy than pitching in the AL.
This year he's probably going to pitch fewer innings because of being in the NL and pitchers lack of offensive production...and I'm not sold on the Mets bull pen being able to hold on to games for him.
Secret Squirrel said 02/09, 10:20 PM
Johan Santana is one of the better hitting pitchers in the majors. He has a career .258 average, with two extra base hits in 31 at bats.
Johan proved this year he needs runs support to win games, giving up 4 runs in 12 games, winning 3 of them. If he's giving up four runs a game, he's not gonna win very many games with an offense like the Twins, who were 25th in runs scored last year. The Mets were 10th, scoring about 100 runs more than the Twins did last year.
The Mets bullpen is about equivalent to the Twins this year, with a very good closer, a good setup man, and some spotty middle relief men. If Johan won 15 games with the Twins bullpen this year, I think he can win 20 with the Mets bullpen mixed with the improved offense.
Another consideration would be that Johan is not pitching indoors this year. On grass last year, he was 10-3 with a 2.59 ERA...On turf, he was 5-10 with a 4.08 ERA...
badgerfan07 said 02/09, 10:54 PM
That .258 batting average came in limited at bats..he's going to have to do that consistently.
Last year the Mets scored on average 4.6 runs per game..as compared to the Twins 4.1 runs per game. In actuality he won't be getting that much more run support.
As for the Mets bull pen...last year Billy Wagner blew 5 saves. Compare that with the 37 saves and just 4 blown saves for Joe Nathan. The Mets set up man will probably be Matt Wise, who fell apart at the end of the year in Milwaukee. Then Pat Neshek was pretty consistent through the whole year. The Twins bull pen last year is much better than the Mets bull pen of this year.
Secret Squirrel said 02/10, 11:41 AM
Excluding 2006 (he went 12-0 at the dome...), Johan has historically been a better pitcher away from the friendly confines of the white-roofed H.H.H. Metrodome...(29-9 over 2007, 2005, 2004 away, 22-17 over same time period at home)
0.5 runs per game more is a big stat when you take it into comparison. That's one more run every 81 games. And if these NL games are so much closer than these AL games,. that one extra run can make a huge difference.
Pat Neshek was not consistent the entire year, be it that teams figured him out, or he just wasn't effective, after the All-Star Game, his lowest monthly ERA was 3.97 in July. (Even though the ASG is in July...)
Because one more blown save and three less saves will hurt Santana's performance that much. Both are All-Star caliber closers, and that gives Johan the security behind him....
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Comments (21)
No way he hits 20 Super, but without any arguments from either side I'll hold my vote
BSchwartz07 | 02/09/08, 08:52 PM
Report Offensive Commentwith one of the worse offenses in baseball, he got 15 wins...Now, he gets to pitch in a weaker league and gets an actual offense behind him, you don't think he hits 20?
He finished 7th in ERA, 1st in WHIP, 2nd in Ks, 3rd in BAA and 6th in IP in the AMERICAN LEAGUE, and went 15-13 due to lack of offense...his numbers will improve by playing in the NL and he'll get much better run support...
Jimmer69 IS Darth Caedus! | 02/09/08, 09:04 PM
Report Offensive CommentI don't Jim, Look at other AL stars like Zito, Pedro, and Hudson. None of which matched that success in the NL. Add to that EVERY $100 Million P has stunk it up as well. And then on top of that the Mets ALWAYS sign big names, and never have anything to show for it.
Now I'm not saying he will be bad, but don't expect him to be some amazing stud that owns the NL.
My guess
17-8 with a 3.35
BSchwartz07 | 02/09/08, 09:08 PM
Report Offensive CommentI'll be shocked if he doesn't win 20. He won 15 with virtually no run support in one of the toughest offensive divisions in baseball last year. Going to the N.L. with a FAR better offense behind him and he should be a lock for 20. He's also got a clause in that new contract that adds another year to the deal if he wins the Cy Young award, so the incentive is definitely there, as well.
Cowboys-Celtics-Chisox | 02/09/08, 09:13 PM
Report Offensive CommentMy guess:
18-4 with a 4.12 ERA
DetroitFan* BS: 16-6! | 02/09/08, 09:58 PM
Report Offensive CommentDetfan that's a huge ERA for 18-4.
BSchwartz07 | 02/09/08, 10:09 PM
Report Offensive Commentactually CCC, moving to the NL doesn't help pitchers. It especially won't help you get wins.
If you are in a close game, maybe 6th inning on, and pitching well. In the AL you are good, give it another inning or 3 and hope your guys get you a run or two. In the NL you are gone in the 6th for a pinch hitter hoping to get that run in.
BSchwartz07 | 02/09/08, 10:11 PM
Report Offensive CommentOK..first, two of those guys are Oakland pitchers...numbers get masked by the fact that Oakland is a HUGE park and they've got HUGE amount of foul ball territory...a lot of balls that would normally go foul get caught there...Look at Blanton's home and away numbers last year...
As far as Hudson goes, his ERA went down, his strikeouts went up, and his IP increased hsi first year in the NL...and, after an off 2006, he came back and had an even lower era, even MORE strikeouts and even MORE IP, than his last year in Oakland...
Zito, he hasn't been overally spectular since 2003..can hardly blame the switch...
Pedro lowered his ERA a whole run in his first year back to the NL...been hurt since then...
and, let's face it...Pedro was 4 years older than Santana upon his return to the NL...and Zito and Hudson were NEVER in Santana's class...
Over the last 4 years, Santana's averages are: 2.90, 245 Ks/ 50BBs, .210 BAA, .99 WHIP, 227 IP...Zito and Hudson, pitching in a pitcher's park, didn't sustain those kind of numbers heading into the NL...
Jimmer69 IS Darth Caedus! | 02/09/08, 10:54 PM
Report Offensive Comment'My guess:
18-4 with a 4.12 ERA'
In regards to the ERA, someone is smoking crack :-)
Jimmer69 IS Darth Caedus! | 02/09/08, 10:56 PM
Report Offensive CommentDetfan that's a huge ERA for 18-4.
#1 BSchwartz07 | 02/09/08, 10:09 PM
In regards to the ERA, someone is smoking crack :-)
Jim L. | 02/09/08, 10:56 PM
Do you think I know my baseball that well?
DetroitFan* BS: 16-6! | 02/10/08, 12:27 AM
Report Offensive CommentDfan, come on. 4.12 is an embarrasement
my guess
22-7
2.85
He gets an automatic out every 9 batters instead of facing the likes of Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, and Garry Sheffield.
EFB- K-ROD 54 | 02/10/08, 12:41 AM
Report Offensive CommentI was Kidding, Ef...
DetroitFan* BS: 16-6! | 02/10/08, 01:12 AM
Report Offensive Commenthes hitting .300 this season
Stauff Nation TB | 02/10/08, 02:01 AM
Report Offensive CommentMaybe 17-18 their bullpen will lose a lot of games for him. Kind of like what they did last year.
Chengy: bye FN | 02/10/08, 02:17 AM
Report Offensive CommentI figured you were kidding Detroit...
Jimmer69 IS Darth Caedus! | 02/10/08, 11:42 AM
Report Offensive Comment'Maybe 17-18 their bullpen will lose a lot of games for him. Kind of like what they did last year'
It wasn't his bullpen, it was his lack of offense...bullpen was fine.
In the 2nd half, the Twins were dead latsa in runs scored in the mjaors...the Royals were 29th and they had 22 more runs scored than the Twins...22 less runs than the Royals in 76 games...
Jimmer69 IS Darth Caedus! | 02/10/08, 11:44 AM
Report Offensive CommentI blame Punto...lol...
Secret Squirrel | 02/10/08, 11:50 AM
Report Offensive CommentMy Prediction? 22-6, 2.45 ERA
Basketball Jesus: CHAMPION! | 02/10/08, 12:29 PM
Report Offensive CommentYou werent kidding. Stop trying to cover up.
EFB- K-ROD 54 | 02/10/08, 12:52 PM
Report Offensive CommentI think he will get close to 20. Maybe 17-19. Dont get me wrong he is the best at this time but it is pretty difficult to switch leagues and to have all this pressure apon him it may stop him from gettin 20 wins
JoseyRamos | 02/10/08, 01:00 PM
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