Who are the Best Long Shots to Pull upsets and meet for Stanley? (note this says posible long shots)
Baun-ded said 04/08, 12:27 PM
Rules: Follow format- Pick you teams 1st. Argue 2nd and 3rd arguments.
*note-Detroit, Montreal, San Jose, Pittsburgh are not long shots.
This is not a prediction that they will. This is about two teams, one from each conference, that could upset higher seeds and advance all the way to the final for the Stanley Cup.
Most years have upsets. To predict that that Habs meet the Wings is just a stats pick. It rarely works out that way.
So, my two picks who could upset the apple carts are going to be ...
The Washington Capitals from the East.
vs
The Anaheim Ducks from the West.
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers said 04/08, 12:41 PM
let me get this straight: you say longshots aren't the top 2 seeds of the conference and then you just go with the #3 seed in the East and the third best record in the West as your "long-shots"? Well if you eliminate the #1 and #2 seeds wouldn't the #3 seed be the favorite?
The East is really wide open, and any one of 6 teams could easily represent the East in the Stanley Cup.
Since this TD is titled who is the best long shot - I'll go with the lowest seed I think has a shot to advance: The Philadelphia Flyers.
The series with the Capitals will probably be the most exciting to watch in the first round as both teams are playing their best hockey as of late. I don't think the Capitals have enough physical play to endure a long series or Stanley Cup playoff run. The Flyers on the other hand are built for the playoffs with strong phyically dominating play.
For the West, of course Anaheim is the popular pick if you eliminate the top 2 seeds, so there won't be an argument there. The other "upset" team to watch out for in the West is the Colorado Avalanche. If the Avs can neutralize the Wild's special teams, the Avs should be able to win that series.
Baun-ded said 04/08, 01:28 PM
So...let me get this straight. You take a Td with rules you don't follow.
You argue that you think that Washington is a favourite?
They are ranked 13th of the 16 teams in the playoffs.
The Flyers are a better Odds bet in Vegas and ahead in the standings.
So yeah...the Caps are the bigger long shot here.
And since you have only picked the Flyers...then this comes down to who will win the first round.
The Caps will!
It starts in Goal with Huet. Since arriving he has posted 11W-2L- 1.63GAA
and a .936 Save percentage.
Size- The Caps are the biggest team in the NHL. They're very capable of dealing with the Flyers rough stuff and physical play.
The Capitals will take advantage of the Flyers propensity to take dumb and ill timed penalties.
The Caps have the Best player in the game this year, OV.
Biron has no playoff experience and was a backup goalie in Buffalo.
The Caps are energized and look unstoppable since December going 35-15-6 for 76 pts.
Boudreau is a major reason for this turn-a-round and has this whole team playing...as a team with all due respect to O.V. This is not a one man show.
Hatcher is a question mark and Briere is not 100% either.
Caps in 7.
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers said 04/08, 02:20 PM
What rules did I not follow? The Flyers are not the top 2 team. If you think what I said in the first argument was an arguement, this actual argument will blow your mind...
So wait a second...the Flyers (the 6th seed) are the favorites over the Capitals (the 3rd seed)?
"The Flyers are a better Odds bet in Vegas and ahead in the standings.
So yeah...the Caps are the bigger long shot here."
So by your own admission, the Flyers are the better team right? So how will the Caps win in the first round?
The Flyers are the 6th seed, this means they are the bigger long-shot since they have to overcome home ice advantage the Caps have.
Washington hasn't been in the postseason since 2003 and the Flyers (save last year) are a usual to the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Biron has only 1 regulation loss in his last seven starts and on the season he had 30 wins, a 2.59 GAA and a .918 save percentage.
The Flyers had the league's second best powerplay at 21.8% and Washington had the league's 6th worst penalty kill at 80.5% The Flyers also had the 5th highest total of Short Handed goals with 13 - So the edge in special teams goes to the Flyers.
More to come ....
Baun-ded said 04/08, 04:21 PM
Well, that really blew my mind.zzzzz
I have made no such admission.
As far as how they will win it...see 2nd argument for a start.
Biron has 1 reg loss in last 7?
Huet has 2 losses in last 11...and won his last 9!
Season-Huet wins again
52GP-32W-14L- 2.32GAA-920 %.
Biron?
62GP-30w-20L-2.59GAA-918%
Special Teams
You took reg season stats. They do not paint a clear picture.
Caps record 43-31-8*
Flyers record 42-29-11
Caps season start 6-14-1=13pt-21games.
*Since Bourdreau 37-17-7=81pt-61games.
Factor that stat into your special teams for a look at the real story.
Playoff exp? Non-factor both teams.
The Flyers have the task of beating a team 4 times that has not lost a game since March17.
A team that is high on momentum-proven over their last 61 games they are champion material and will be turning it up with Ovechkin leading the way and with the Caps reg. Defence(all plus players) in front of a much better goalie.
If anything is mind blowing here, it is the solid play and winning attitude that has gripped the Caps since Bourdreau has arrived!
This team has it all-Size-scoring-solid D-Goaltending-Coaching-Momentum...oh yeah-And home ice advantage!
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers said 04/08, 04:38 PM
Philadelphia played in the league's only division to post 4 playoff teams while the Capitals played in the only division to send only 1 team. That means Philadelphia has faced better competition all year. Philly has 21 road wins on the year, tied for 4th in the league.
Philly was a +15 in goals scored to goals allowed while Washington was only +11.
Hatcher will play later in the series and Briere has been declared fit and ready for Game 1, according to the Philadephia Inquirer.
Huet has no playoff experience either. He has played in 6 games and is 2-4.
"The Flyers have the task of beating a team 4 times that has not lost a game since March17"
--Flyers took 5 points out of 8 possible for their regular season matchups
Do you know the last playoff team the Caps beat? The Predators on MARCH 18th!
-Since that date, the Flyers have defeated the Pens (2 seed) Devils (4 seed) and Rangers (twice) (5 seed)
The Flyers are the more complete team and will physically frustrate Ovechkin - he has only 3 goals and 5 points in their 4 games this season.
Wash has only an 18.2% PP against Philly &an awful 77.3% PK against the Flyers
Philly has a 22.7% PP & 81.8% PK vs. Wash
Cheerleader: Best of Summer '08
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Comments (55)
Good luck- Looks like I'll have my work cutout for me considering your record.
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 12:40 PM
Report Offensive Commentthanks you too
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers | 04/08/08, 12:43 PM
Report Offensive CommentThe Ducks are hardly a long shot. They have Selanne back and Niedermeyer. Plus they did kind of win it all last year.
Also, Baun-ded - where doesn't Duquesne's argument make sense? I didnt follow that.
rmustud19 | 04/08/08, 04:09 PM
Report Offensive CommentMustard...I didn't say his argument didn't make sense...I said your argument didn't make sense in your last TD.
The Ducks are out of this argument. We both agreed on them.
And since most are picking- Detroit-SJS or Montreal-Pittsburgh to go to the finals...I wanted 2 teams that were against the flow as those ones will be argued over and over I'm sure.
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 04:29 PM
Report Offensive CommentI'm pretty sure he only picked the Ducks too because you did. He would've gotten destroyed if he picked another team instead of Anaheim. But they still aren't a long shot.
You didnt address what rules he broke.
rmustud19 | 04/08/08, 04:44 PM
Report Offensive CommentI'm pretty sure he only picked the Ducks too because you did. He would've gotten destroyed if he picked another team instead of Anaheim. But they still aren't a long shot.
You didnt address what rules he broke.
rmustud19 | 04/08/08, 04:44 PM
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that is why i picked the ducks...they arent a long shot...but if you pick another team (i.e. colorado) try and argue which team has a better shot of winning the cup...anaheim will come out on top no matter which of the other 5 teams you pick
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers | 04/08/08, 05:01 PM
Report Offensive CommentYou didnt address what rules he broke.
rmustud19 | 04/08/08, 04:44 PM
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The rule was not to start to argue or make a case before the second argument. I said nothing in my first regarding my picks except for calling the teams...
In his first argument he started his case for the Flyers...
"The series with the Capitals will probably be the most exciting to watch in the first round as both teams are playing their best hockey as of late. I don't think the Capitals have enough physical play to endure a long series or Stanley Cup playoff run. The Flyers on the other hand are built for the playoffs with strong phyically dominating play."
That is called making an argument.
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 05:16 PM
Report Offensive Commentthat is not an argument at all
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers | 04/08/08, 06:09 PM
Report Offensive CommentI beg to differ...You clearly provided an advanced reason on a contentious subject with your view as to why the Caps could be taken by the Flyers. Hmmm...let me see, that pretty much "defines" an argument. It also gave you both opening and closing arguments! Your record would indicate you should know better, you are not a "babe in the woods".
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 06:21 PM
Report Offensive Comment1. if i choose to use the space provided I do so.
2. quit whining - look at my second and third arguments - (maybe you should take notes) if i would have broke your rule you would have seen stats and other facts to prove why the Flyers will win.
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers | 04/08/08, 07:12 PM
Report Offensive CommentAS FAR AS ANY REGULAR SEASON STATS ARE CONCERNED...
They go out the window since Boudreau took over...
Since then...Caps and flyer met 3x...Caps won 2 games...in Philly...
Non-playoff team...Last I checked ...the Canes were seeded num 3 before the last week of the reg season.
And the Caps beat them too. Am I supposed to take each weeks standings week by week to see who was a playoff team and who was not as the Caps marched through them all?
The Caps record since Boudreau....puts them in the same Ball park as...the Wings, SJS, Habs, Pens. at about 76 pts.
The Flyers over the same period got 56 points...20 fewer! And the Caps have Ovechkin...Yeah...he's just going to roll over for the Flyers....as will Brashear...and Fedorov has found his second childhood...
You have refuted nothing that I argued!
That is about the same amount of characters you used in your "1st" argument.!
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 07:14 PM
Report Offensive CommentAS FAR AS ANY REGULAR SEASON STATS ARE CONCERNED...
They go out the window since Boudreau took over...
Since then...Caps and flyer met 3x...Caps won 2 games...in Philly...
Non-playoff team...Last I checked ...the Canes were seeded num 3 before the last week of the reg season
--only because that helps your argument...i can manipulate stats to my advantage too
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers | 04/08/08, 07:16 PM
Report Offensive CommentAnd yes...I am not whinning...you said you didn't argue....I'm saying you did. It's obvious.
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 07:17 PM
Report Offensive CommentYes...I've seen nothing but evidence of that fact. Get real...the Caps are by far a superior team since Boudreau.!
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 07:18 PM
Report Offensive CommentYou have refuted nothing that I argued!
That is about the same amount of characters you used in your "1st" argument.!
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 07:14 PM
haha actually you have refuted nothing i argued....
(maybe you should see the huet experience rebuttal, the brier questionmark, and the flyers taking 5 out of 8 pts)
as for your rebuttal....where did you answer:
last win vs a playoff team being almost a month ago?
why ovechkin only has 5 pts in the 4 games?
power-play and penalty kill advantage for the flyers?
"nd the Caps have Ovechkin...Yeah...he's just going to roll over for the Flyers....as will Brashear...and Fedorov has found his second childhood..."
--wow how am i ever going to refute a stat packed "fact" like that?
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers | 04/08/08, 07:19 PM
Report Offensive Commentthe caps will lose in 6...no question about it....it took a collapse by carolina for washington to even be at the dance
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers | 04/08/08, 07:20 PM
Report Offensive CommentThese stats are not manipulated-They are facts.
Since December...
SJS-60gp-37-17-6=80pts
Wings. 56G-37-15-4=78pts
Habs-57GP-34-16-7=75pts
Pens-58GP-36-16-6=78pts
Ducks-55gp-35-16-4=74pts
Caps- 56GP-35-15-6=76pts
Flyers 58GP-28-21-9=65pts
*And you're including what the Flyers did in the last game against the "Tanked Pens" in your stats too?
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 07:38 PM
Report Offensive CommentThats a laugh...In all of your comments on how I refuted nothing came in your FINAL argument...Which left me no room to refute them. However, you had the opportunity to refute mine...you didn't!
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 07:44 PM
Report Offensive Commenti don't need to justify myself anymore...my record speaks for itself and yours does as well...all your points have been refuted...
Dookie: Here We Go Steelers | 04/08/08, 07:53 PM
Report Offensive CommentI notice you never refuted the fact that what you did in your opening argument was in fact an argument...Interesting.
So, what in your book augments an argument? Cheater! The Flyers in Six...hahaha....
Baun-ded | 04/08/08, 07:58 PM
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