FanNation

chrono8008 said 04/15, 06:40 PM
This is a strange topic (one I was given, not one I chose). It asks me to pick three rather arbitrary numbers, instead of the players who will take each category. But I signed up for the tourney, so I guess I'll try.

BATTING AVERAGE - .354

Last year's leader was Magglio Ordonez, with a .363 average. In the years before, the leaders had averages of .347, .335, and .372. Batting average has clearly fluctuated over the past four years. It's an incredibly unsteady statistic. So, I went with .354, the mean of the past four year's leading batting averages.

HOME RUNS - 52

Over the past three years, there has been at least one hitter to hit 50 homeruns. I think this year will be the same, but I can't see anyone having a monster year. A-Rod had an insane year last season, but he has his money now, and I don't see him putting up those huge numbers again. Ryan Howard had 58 in 2006, but I think that was probably a one-time deal. Other than Rodriguez and Howard, I only see Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, or maybe even Carlos Pena as legitimate contenders in this category. I think 52 will be the most we'll see.

RBI - 148

The RBI leader is usually in the 140s-150s range. I'll go with 148.

chrono8008 said 04/16, 08:47 PM
1. "the number .350 will seldomly be reached in the next few years."

Well, 6 out of 8 times this decade, at least one player has met or surpassed a .350 average. Most of the recent leaders (3 of the last 4) have come from the American League, and with two of the best American League pitchers (Santana and Haren) leaving for the NL, I think this year could see even more good batting averages. Obviously, two pitchers cannot make a world of a difference, but it could certainly have an effect on AL hitters' success.

2. "but the steroid era is behind us and no one will hit 50 homeruns this year."

Ryan Howard proved that you don't need steroids to hit 50 homers, after smacking 58 of them in '06. A-Rod probably won't lead the league again, but Prince Fielder came out of nowhere to get 50 last year, so why can't someone else do that this year?

3. "There isn't really a great power hitter in a great lineup"

Here are the RBI leaders from last year:

1. Rodriguez
2. Ordonez
3. Holliday
4. Howard
5. Guerrero

Four of those players are in same, similar, or better lineups as last year, (Howard lost Aaron Rowand). Any of them could take the RBI title this year with 148, and maybe more.

chrono8008 said 04/17, 10:45 PM
1. Here's what you just said: "Well, I don't think that A-Rod will hit 52 homeruns again, remember, in the past four years, he had two years with less than 40 homeruns."

Perhaps you missed it, but I already went over that in my second argument: "A-Rod probably won't lead the league again"

2. "I can't think of a power hitter that will hit 52 this year"

Exactly my point. It's basically IMPOSSIBLE to predict a home run leader. Let's look at some recent leaders and the context of their massive home run totals:

2007: Alex Rodriguez (coming off terrible batting and fielding season in '06)

2007 NL: Prince Fielder (no one saw 50 HRs coming)

2006: Ryan Howard (few expected his success to continue in his sophomore season)

2005: Andruw Jones (51 HRs were a full 15 more than his career high)

2004: Adrian Beltre (48 HRs were 25 more than his career high)

As you can see, almost no one could have seen those huge numbers coming from these hitters. But just because you can't think of anyone who can hit 50+ doesn't mean it can't happen. Beltre, Jones, and Fielder came out of nowhere to put up big numbers. The same thing could happen this year.