We the People tourney- Who got the better side of the Johan Santana trade, the Mets or the Twins?
thehemogoblin: home again said 05/26, 02:50 PM
The New York Metropolitans won this trade.
They've got the most dominant pitcher in today's MLB, for a center fielder, and three minor minor league prospects.
Carlos Gomez may be thriving in the Baggydome, but center field was clogged with Carlos Beltran, and Ryan Church has thrived with the playing time that the trading of Gomez facilitated.
One of the prospects that the Twins received, Philip Humber, is already 25 and is recovering from a Tommy John surgery. The odds of him EVER making a difference for the Twins are somewhere between slim and none.
Did I mention that the Mets got Johan Santana?
J23dude8821 said 05/26, 06:37 PM
It seems as though Johan's been declining since his 2006 CY. He's been a good, but not great pitcher these past 18 months. Definately not the Johan of old.
Gomez has revitalized the Twins organization. His speed is more than any Twin since Christin Guzman left, and he might even be faster. His defense has been much better than we expected (though after Puckett and Hunter, expectations were very high).
As far as saying Humber has almost no chance of making an impact for the Twins, that may be harsh. Do you remember in 2004, when Matt Guerrier had been a top prospect for years, and he wasn't doing it, so we said he'd never make it as a starter? Well, he's a top-tier setup man, and he could be the next Twins closer. He could come back as a reliever, and eventually pitch himself in the rotation.
We also got Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey in the deal. Not much is known about these two pitchers, except that they could be good starters and relievers in the future. Whether they pan out or not, Gomez has become the latest star in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, and that star, plus Johan's decline and Humber's potential, makes the Twins the winner of the blockbuster.
thehemogoblin: home again said 05/27, 01:36 AM
I wouldn't say that Gomez is a star. If he's still doing the same things next year he is now, come back to me on that. Has he been a good acquisition, yes. Would I rather have a center fielder playing left because of Carlos Beltran in center or a pitching ace? Still rather have the ace.
So we know that right now the Twins are 1/4 in the deal and we won't know for three or four years whether or not the other pieces in the trade will work out.
Meanwhile, Johan Santana's making the best of his situation in New York. His win totals may not be there, with 5 in ten starts, but his 3.36 ERA and 1.18 WHIP are very good, as is his 4:1 K:BB ratio. His strikeouts are a little down, but altogether, the Mets have gotten exactly what they expected from there 100 Million Dollar Man.
Did you say Johan's decline? When is an ERA under 3.5 and a WHIP under 1.3 on a pitcher who's 29 considered a decline? I just want to know where you get this information, so that I can subscribe to the same school of thought and look just as cool as you.
Contrary to popular thought, Johan Santana is having success pitching for the Metropolitans.
J23dude8821 said 05/27, 08:24 PM
He hasn't exactly produced fully, though. For AL pitchers switching leagues, the expectations are raised, as the NL is a pitching-friendly leauge. He's been mediocre according to expectaitons.
Look at it this way:
When the Mets got Johan for 4 prospects, they thought they fleeced the Twinks. They figured he'd have a sub 3 ERA, with 20 wins and 250+ k's.
Look at it this way: Jose Contreras is having a better year in the majority of the main categories. His ERA is 0.33 runs less. That's big for a pitcher.
Gomez isn't a star yet, but he is in Minnesota. Take it from me, he's a lot of people's favorite Twin, well, besides our homegrown hero, Joe Mauer. People love that he hustles everything out. He plays the game the way it's meant to be played. He'll be loved in Minnesota for a long time.
thehemogoblin: home again said 05/27, 09:38 PM
If a 3.36 ERA is mediocre... that's insane... the league ERA is somewhere around five and you're bashing an ERA of 3.36 in a ten game sample? He's on pace for 180 strikeouts. Santana's ERA+ is still in the 120s. He's still a top-line starter.
New York had no use for Gomez though, that's what makes this trade work. Beltran, with his Koncak, is locked into center field for the foreseeable future, and the leadoff role is thoroughly secured by a certain Jose Reyes. Both roles that Gomez would have are procured, and Ryan Church has done a great job in right, and Moises Alou's just recovering from an offseason injury for left field. There'd be no home for Gomez on the Mets.
ERA of .33 is about one run every 5 6 inning starts... and considering there's only ten starts, that's an approximate difference of two runs so far this season. Big difference. That can all be attributed to Johan Santana's batting average on balls in play against, a statistic that measures basically how many balls that are hit that are getting caught, and his BABIPA is higher than it's been since 2002, so that number's bound to revert back to his career average, bringing all of his statistics into a better focus.
J23dude8821 said 05/28, 06:52 PM
I never said his ERA was mediocre. What I said was he isn't the dominant pitcher everyone expected. more than servicable, by far.
Even though he had no home in New York, you can't deny that he has been a good addition for the Twins. Ever since Shannon Stewart left, we hadn't had a true leadoff hitter, and even he wasn't exactly the definition of "top-of-the-order." Gomez is very good in that spot, and he should be able to hold it for at least a decade.
ERA of .33 isn't that big, but considering last year Johan was immensely better than Contreras makes it worth noting. I know, by the end of the season Santana will probably be better in that category than Jose, but it's still interesting.
Basically, when the Twins traded away Johan, we had low expectations for our guys. We figured none of them would make the pro club right away, much less make an impact. As for the Mets, they expected an instant Cy Young. And in that respect, the Twins won the trade.
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Comments (13)
Good luck
thehemogoblin: home again | 05/26/08, 02:50 PM
Report Offensive CommentYah... Santana hasn't been the "most dominant pitcher" in baseball for over a year and a half.
Peavy. Beckett, Webb, Joe Nathan, Papelbon, Sabathia, all have had better year and a halves than Johan. But I will wait to hear right's argument.
MadMax is..awesome at pingpong | 05/26/08, 03:19 PM
Report Offensive CommentThat's not nice. ^^^
G.O.A.T. | 05/26/08, 04:13 PM
Report Offensive CommentThe Santana trade is just going to hurt their rebuilding efforts after they fire Willie Randolph and start their fire sale at the trade deadline.
ChicksDigMe | 05/26/08, 04:24 PM
Report Offensive CommentIts too early to say for certain, but i think the Mets needed an ace, and they got one.
Cain-Willis. In & Out... | 05/26/08, 07:23 PM
Report Offensive CommentIts too early to say for certain, but i think the Mets needed an ace, and they got one.
Cain-Willis. Amigo. | 05/26/08, 07:23 PM
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Obviously he isn't having the effect on the Mets that people thought he would. People thought that he would erase all of the talk about last year, but that lasted all of about 5 minuets before people realized how bad this team is. Johan might be great but the Twins are in better shape in the immediate futre and long term than the Mets are.
mm881102 | 05/26/08, 09:36 PM
Report Offensive CommentThis hurts to say but it's vote right. The Twins have done better so far. The Mets got a guy in Santana who looks a lot like Carlos Beltran. By that I mean he's a big money guy who is going to drown in a big market. I do not think the bright lights of the big city is for him, and this thing is going to look like a failure for Minaya.
By the way as a Met fan this thing with Willie is ticking me off. It's more Omar's fault for not giving Willie a team to win with. No pitching after Santana (I mean come on how in the hell could he have thought Pedro was going to come back 100 percent) and no hitting after Wright and Reyes (Beltran is a BUST and Delgado is broken down).
This was so expected.
J. HOVA: BROOKLYN'S OWN | 05/27/08, 04:24 PM
Report Offensive CommentThanks for finally starting!(geez)
(Cincy) Eddie Vedder | 05/27/08, 04:44 PM
Report Offensive CommentSorry.
thehemogoblin: home again | 05/27/08, 06:37 PM
Report Offensive CommentToo early to decide. Besides, Johan is notoriously a second half player.
AdamLee | 05/29/08, 01:32 AM
Report Offensive CommentToo early to decide. Besides, Johan is notoriously a second half player.
AdamLee | 05/29/08, 01:32 AM
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Exactly what I was thinking
Foosball | 05/29/08, 10:40 AM
Report Offensive CommentThe Mets are 8-3 in games started by Santana. I think any team would take that %. He hasn't been quite his stellar self, but I agree with the bit about him coming on in the second half- that's his tradition.
That said, Gomez is rocking it out in Minny. The trade certainly looks better for the Twins than it did when they made it.
Long term though, the Mets won this I think.
Porkins: Pisses Excellence | 05/29/08, 10:45 AM
Report Offensive CommentBoth of you guys had decent arguments and made this tournament throwdown a good one. However, since I don't know all that much about baseball, it comes down to who had the more CONVINCING argument. In my mind, it's Hemo. Vote to the left.
G.O.A.T. | 05/29/08, 06:05 PM
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