FanNation

Moondizzle...Flying Cows. said 06/17, 12:01 PM
I'm going to go with the Johan Santana change-up. I'll explain shortly here and bring up some stats and such in the follow-ups.

There is arguably no other pitcher in the game who is able to mask an upcoming pitch better than Johan Santana. His change-up is identical to his fastball out of the hand, which befuddles righties and lefties alike.

Rarely can a pitcher 'pitch off' his changeup. Usually, they set up off the fast-ball with slower breaking stuff. He will throw this pitch any time at almost any point in the count.

Rivera does exclusively use the cutter. And yes, he does shave off bats. Indeed: the hitters know its coming and most, if not all of them are powerless against it. But the crux of my argument here is what makes a pitch the best? The fact that it can get 3 men out in a row? Or the fact that it can consistently mow down hitters for 7 straight innings, after the hitters have seen that pitch 3 or even 4 times in the entire game.

If Rivera's pitch were exposed to 20 hitters a game, would players eventually catch on? Yes. You can say that after this many years, they should have caught on. But in the 9th, you cant take pitches and manage counts. You swing.

Moondizzle...Flying Cows. said 06/17, 05:37 PM
Enough players have caught up with Rivera here and there to score big, just like Santana has given up enough runs on his changeup. Its all about sample size though. The fact that Rivera has given up far less over time is simply due to his innings pitched.

The hitter may know whats coming, but keep in mind the mindset of a hitter with 1 out in the 9th. They come up to hack. They cant set up the pitcher, or wait him out to get a read for future at-bats. They need to be on base or score, immediately. I'm not downplaying Mo's greatness, but try running that cutter through the lineup 4 times. It wont fly.

Yes, Santana has a low 90's fastball. Its not 95 though. Low 90's is hittable. His slider is decent. Its the fact that his change is a mirror image of the fastball until the speed is deciphered. Santana can not only mask the delivery, but he can strike the same hitter out over 8 innings 3 or 4 times with the same pitch. Even after a hitter's read throughout the game.

The gameplan is the same for him every game, and yet he's a cy young candidate perennially. Rivera throws the cutter and does it well. But its a tiny sample size compared.

Control isnt much of a factor here

Moondizzle...Flying Cows. said 06/19, 09:47 AM
"In a 4 game series you may see Rivera 4 times"

Highly, highly unlikely.

"Can you hit him? Nope."

Thats a generalization. And hardly something you can predict. The reason I bring up Santana is because he has done such a thing. He HAS gone 8 innings in a game and retired the same batter 4 times using his dynamite change-up, despite the hitter seeing that pitch many times throughout the game, even watching his teammates take hacks.

Regardless of the fact that he has other pitches, the change-up is the pace setter and the set-up for every at-bat he goes through in the lineup.

"The fact that if he were a starter he couldn't use his cutter every time doesn't matter."

It matters because the usefulness of the pitch wears off during the game when hitters employ several strategies over the course of 3 or 4 at-bats. Rivera can throw with no fear. The hitters are hacking.

The usefulness of the change-up goes beyond just swings and misses, where your argument resides. It is the pitch that sets up an entire game, Santana's entire arsenal, and it doesn't let hitters relax even when they are doing what they cant do with Rivera - to take pitches and set up the pitcher.