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  • June 17, 2008 11:07 PM ET

ELITE TD TOURNAMENT: Round 1-#3 vs. #30 matchup-Which MLB team has the best rotation?

Secret Squirrel (78-69-15) vs The Bandit (57-4-3)
3
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3
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I believe that the best rotation in baseball i sthe Toronto Blue Jay rotation of Roy Halladay, Shaun Marcum, A.J. Burnett, Jesse Litsch, and Dustin McGowan.

Individual stats first

Halladay: 8-6 / 107.2 IP / 3.09 ERA / 86 K / 13 BB / 1.03 WHIP
Marcum: 5-3 / 92.2 IP / 2.43 ERA / 80 K / 26 BB / 0.99 WHIP
Litsch: 7-3 / 82.2 IP / 3.70 ERA / 44 K / 13 BB / 1.29 WHIP
McGowan: 5-4 / 85 IP / 3.92 ERA / 67 K / 32 BB / 1.36 WHIP
Burnett: 6-6 / 86.1 IP / 4.90 ERA / 85 K / 45 BB / 1.51 WHIP

The rotation as a whole has a 3.61 ERA, most of that thanks to Burnett, has a WHIP of 1.24, and is averaging 7.14 K/9 innings. Opposing hitters are only hitting .253 against these guys.

The records may not show much, but records for pitchers are not a good indicator as to their success...Each of these guys has at least 5 quality starts this year...

The Toronto rotation has been consistent and consistently good...


Nice pick SS.

I'll go with LA Angels.

The stats

Lackey..........4-1 / 52.0 IP / 39 K // 9 BB / 1.73 ERA / 0.92 WHIP
Saunders..10-3 / 94.0 IP / 46 K / 23 BB / 3.06 ERA / 1.13 WHIP
Santana.......8-3 / 95.1 IP / 82 K / 21 BB / 3.40 ERA / 1.08 WHIP
Garland........6-4 / 89.1 IP / 34 K / 31 BB / 4.13 ERA / 1.46 WHIP
Weaver.........6-7 / 91.1 IP / 65 K / 24 BB / 4.73 ERA / 1.31 WHIP

1st off,we are talking about the rotation "as a whole" and not focusing on one individual pitcher.

LAA rotation has a combined record of 34-18...Toronto has 31-23. W's and L's are not a good barometer towards evaluating a rotation's potential as you stated because they are contingent upon run support.

Plain and simple..we have to look at the combined stats for all 5 starters in terms of WHIP and ERA.

Here' how each rotation fared collectively thus far.

Toronto's 5 starters..463.1 IP / 434 H / 184 ER / 126 BB

LAA's 5 starters. 422.0 IP/ 399 H / 167 ER / 108 BB

From the stats, I've calculated each rotation's ERA and WHIP as a whole.

Toronto....3.576 ERA and 1.209 WHIP
LAA...........3.568 ERA and 1.201 WHIP

Angels are slightly better. More next.


How can a rotation be a rotation without it's separate pieces?

Both teams have a very, very good pitcher...Toronto has Marcum, LA has Lackey...

Both have a solid veteran posting solid numbers...Toronto has Halladay, LA has Santana

Both have a solid young pitcher...Toronto has Litsch, LA has Saunders

Both have two guys who screw up the group Toronto has Burnett and McGowan, LA has Weaver and Garland

Marcum
Halladay>Santana
Litsch=Saunders
Burnett
McGowan>Weaver

Basically, these are the same two teams...(What a waste of 500 characters...)

So if we look at the team stats as well, we see that the Blue Jay pitchers have a higher K/9 ratio, have walked more batters, have given up fewer home runs. No one on the Jays staff has a K/BB ratio lower than 2.02, while the Angels have two below that...The Jays have a 1.234 WHIP and a 3.654 ERA. The Angels have a 1.18 WHIP and a 3.41 ERA...So yes...they have some better numbers...but they aren't better pitchers...


If we're gonna break down each SP and compare..you will see that LA has the better overall talent.

Individual stats are already provided above in the previous arguments, so voters can refer to them.

Lackey has a lower ERA and WHIP than Marcum. Edge JL.
Halladay beats Santana in ERA and WHIP. Edge RH.

"Litsch=Saunders". I disagree with this.

Saunders...3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .238 BAA....10-3 rec
Litsch..........3.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .287 BAA.....7-3 rec

Saunders is better.He beats Litsch in 4 categories.

I agree the rest of our starters are the weak links to our rotation, so that is awashed.

Now let's talk "quality starts" or QS.

A QS is defined as an outing of at least 6 IP allowing 3 or less runs in the process. It is a criteria that determines how successful a starting P is per outing.

Here are the # of "Quality Starts" of each P out of their total starts thus far into the season.

LAA rotation.

JL....7 QS out of 7
ES...10 QS out of 14
JS....9 QS out of 14
JG.....8 QS out of 14
JW....7 QS out of 15 (weak link)

Total: 41 QS out of 64 or 64.1 %

On next argument, I'm going to show you that the Toronto's rotation has a lower % of QS.


Well...I completely blew my chance to have a meaningful argument by having a life...lol...So I'll do my best to get this in in 30 minutes...

Toronto has pitched 428.1 innings this season, LA has gone for 428...That really means nothing, but it adds to my next point.

Toronto has 373 strikeouts, LA has 189. LA has considerably fewer walks, 112 to 127. The Angels have given up 179 runs as a team, Toronto 203, however, 169 of the Angels runs were earned to Toronto's 188. Despite the fact that Toronto has given up more runs, only 92.6% of the runs given up were earned compared to 94.4% of the Angel's runs.

LA's Fielder Independent ERA is 4.01, while Toronto's is 3.60. What does that mean? It means that the Toronto pitchers are doing this more themselves and not completely relying on their fielders to make all the plays for them.

The Toronto pitchers make the outs themselves. They get strikeouts, and they don't give up huge hits (They've allowed fewer HRs than the Angels). The pitchers from Canada are just better than the Angels staff.


Currrently

LAA has allowed 179 R, 169 of which is ER in 428 IP
TOR..211 R, 196 is ER in 469 IP

Calculate each rotation's ERA. Result: LAA is at 3.55... TOR is at 3.76

The 1.8% (94.4 -92.6) diff. in ER as u stated only amounts to TOR giving up 5 less ER. It's miniscule over a span of 70 games.

5 / 70 = 0.07 in less ER a G..or 1 less ER every 14 G. Very unnoticeable. It doesn't hold water. It's a reach.

Now,TOR's % of QS.

RH...9 of 14
SM..11 of 15
JL.6 of 13
DM...9 of 15
AB..7 of 15

Tot: 42 QS out of 72 or 58.3%

What does a terrific rotation offer???

It's quality starts.You can't get more in depth than QS towards measuring how consistently efficient a rotation can be. With LAA's higher % of QS to that of TOR(64% to 58%), they're a more consistent squad.

LAA has 269 K's. NOT 189 as u stated.TOR may get more K's BUT what good is it if they also give up runs in short work. If they can't hold their own by getting shelled on the mound they can't be all that effective. Hence lower % QS. LAA may not be as flashy, but w/ quality pitching.. they get the job done.

Bottom line

Lower ERA and WHIP
Higher % of QS

LAA is BETTER.

June 18, 2008  02:04 PM ET

Nice pick SS. Sorry I got home late and might be out again fo a bit. Thanks for the challenge, it should be a fun TD.

June 18, 2008  02:10 PM ET

BTW, McGowan is 5-5 and not 5-4.

June 18, 2008  05:29 PM ET

They hadn't updated the stats before I posted this last night...

June 18, 2008  10:24 PM ET

Objects in the mirror seem closer than they appear.

I am getting at something, hopefully it will be caught by someone.

June 19, 2008  10:30 AM ET

So close, very good arguments by both, leaning right for now...

June 20, 2008  09:51 AM ET

Just an FYI...the Angels rotation have 269 K's not 189 as SS stated.

June 20, 2008  10:09 AM ET

This is Cal State Northridge vs North Carolina or Kansas or UCLA

June 20, 2008  10:10 AM ET

-------------------------------------------------------->

June 20, 2008  10:17 AM ET

Man, it's been a while since I've TD'ed. Gotta shake off some rust and get back into the groove. I was also kind of ambivalent to this TD because I am a Jays fan, but I had to do what I had to do. Debate against them. lol

June 20, 2008  12:21 PM ET

Just an FYI...the Angels rotation have 269 K's not 189 as SS stated.

The Bandit | 06/20/08, 09:51 AM

Must've missed someone...I thought I hit everyone...

June 21, 2008  12:21 AM ET

Vote to the right. SS, you have incorrect stats and your arguments aren't as good.

 
June 21, 2008  09:31 AM ET

Vote right, just better overall, love all the damn stats you guys came up with, good stuff. As for quality starts, that stat needs to be changed, if a guy gives you a quality start every game, but it is exactly a quality start, he would have a 4.50 ERA. It is an interesting stat but not as hard as it sounds.

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