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  • June 19, 2008 08:19 PM ET

5th SIFS Tourney, Week 1: Who has been the biggest overachiever so far in the 2008 MLB season?

Lifer: Metallica Sucks! (348-131-26) vs thehemogoblin- Gone (81-25-7)
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Simple question...who thus far in the 2008 season has been playing above their head?

I'm going to ignore the sexier picks and go with Ryan Dempster.

He currently has an 8-2 record, 2.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .192 BAA, and 81 Ks over 94.2 IP.

Remember, this is THE Ryan Dempster. You know, the guy who hasn't had an ERA under 4 since 2005, and that was as a closer. The beginning of his career was as a starter, and over the 7 seasons as a starter, only ONCE did he have an ERA under 4.00 (yet he had an ERA above 6.00 three times).

He was then converted into a closer, where he was...well...bad. His first two seasons, he posted ERAs of 3.92 and 3.13, but in his next two seasons (05 and 06), he had ERAs of 4.80 and 4.72...that's right, as a closer.

Now...he's a 31 year old who was supposed to be a washed up scrub. Instead, he was made into a starter for this year, and now you see what happened. Among all starters on his team, Dempster is tied for first in wins, and is first in ERA and 2nd in Ks.

In the NL among starters, he is 4th in Wins and ERA, 3rd in WHIP, and 2nd in BAA. To put it simply, he is putting up elite numbers.


My selection is the Florida Marlins.

Six games above .500 nearly halfway through the season.

WITHOUT Miguel Cabrera or (he was good once) Dontrelle Willis.

The highest paid man on the Marlins is closer Kevin Gregg at a cool $2.5 million.

However, the middle infield tandem of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla has played like no other tandem in baseball save the Phillies' duo of Rollins and Utley, the former with 15 home runs, 17 steals and a slugging percentage of .513, the latter with 21 home runs, 52 RBI and an OPS of .998.

Those two were the two who were most likely to be known as members of the Marlins as well. You've got players such as Jorge Cantu (14 home runs, slugging .500), who was released by the Devil Rays and Reds, and Luis Gonzalez who has better averages now than when the offense-strapped Dodgers released him last year.

On the mound, the Marlins are below average, which makes their success even more abstract. Only three players with WHIPs below 1.25 (all relievers), only four ERAs below 3.50 (all relievers), and only one starter with a BAA lower than .250. There's a grand total of 0 complete games that have been pitched, and prospect Andrew Miller's ERA is 4.87.


Good choice.

My one beef with the Marlins is that, while they've certainly had a good run thus far, they lead neither their own division (Phillies) nor the NL Wild Card (Cardinals). Actually, they're tied for second in the Wild Card with the Brewers.

Ryan Dempster, on the other hand, is the best pitcher on the team with the best record in baseball, the Cubs. On top of that, the Cubs have the 4th best ERA in all of baseball.

The Marlins also have a TON of young talent. Of the six starters, four of them are 25 years old or under. Of the 8 position players, only two of them are older than 30. The Marlins are not a team with a lot of recognizable names, which of course gives them the tag of "overachieving"...but I could see this just as easily being because no one has had the chance to hear their names before.

The Marlins don't put up gaudy stats, but they play in a pretty weak league. The NL has only SIX teams with winning records, including the Marlins.

As for the rest of the NL East...the Nationals have the worst record in the NL, the Mets have had big distractions everywhere but the baseball diamond, and the Braves lost their ace (Smoltz). Only the Phillies have no blemishes.


No, the best pitcher on that team isn't Ryan Dempster, it's Carlos Marmol (2.93 ERA 0.81 WHIP .126 BAA, most appearances on the team).

Dempster had a 3.13 ERA in 2005 pitching only two less innings than he has this year, so he's done this relatively recently. The Marlins only have 11 playoff appearances and 2 rings on their entire team (mostly offered by semi-regulars Luis Gonzalez and Wes Helms).

They may be young, but they're definitely overachieving. Who would think that a franchise who traded their lone star player in Miguel Cabrera for a handful of prospects that have yet to contribute anything to the big club would be contending in the National League.

You said yourself that the Marlins don't put up gaudy statistics, which makes their run even more improbable. The team that they have the most wins against is the Washington Nationals, but the next team after that is the Milwaukee Brewers (whom they are tied with in the Wild Card standings), so they're not JUST beating up on a down and out NL East.

Against your "no blemishes" Phillies, the Fish are .500.


A 2.93 ERA is good for a reliever. A 2.76 ERA is excellent for a starter.

Dempster in 2005 was a closer. You should know that an ERA above 3.00 for a closer is not that impressive, hemo.

Although to be fair, Dempster did start 6 games in 2005...and he went 1-3 with a 5.88 ERA.

So what if the Marlins only have 2 rings and 11 playoff appearances on their team? The Cubs have the best record in baseball, and they only have one ring on their team. Besides, this is the regular season.

Yeah, I said the Marlins don't put up gaudy numbers...but you apparently chose to ignore what I said about their weak league. In their own division, they are:

3-3 vs Phillies (.500)
2-4 vs Mets (.333)
4-5 vs Braves (.444)
8-1 vs Washington (.889)

Congrats, your team has a winning record against the worst team in the NL, and no one else in your own division.

The Marlins are also starting to come back down to earth, anyways. They were 14-10 in April, 15-10 in May, and thus far is 10-13 in June. Dempster, on the other hand, is 3-0 and has a 2.87 ERA in his last 5 starts. While Dempster continues his dominance, the Marlins are starting to fade.


The size of sample is the same, and pitching is still pitching. Dempster has shown recently (by recently, I mean the 3.13 ERA in 2005) the ability to pitch quite well. When was the last time the Marlins contended? 2003. Since then, they've done nothing but sell their best players or let them walk in free agency, a trademark of the Jeffrey Loria years in Miami.

There's only a negligible difference between Florida's ENTIRE TEAM ERA and the ERA of Ryan Dempster over his career, so the Marlins are overcoming poor pitching (which is... SURPRISING) or Ryan Dempster's not as bad over his career as you've made him out to be (which is... not so surprising).

Florida's offense, which is generally lacking in power hitters, has the most home runs in the majors, and they play in a horrible home run ball park. That's surprising.

The Florida Marlins are second to last in the majors in saves, have no complete games, and have given up the fourth most walks in the majors, yet they've STILL got a winning record. That will to win is something that VETERAN teams have, not a team in the midst of a 7 year rebuilding project (at least).

The Florida Marlins ARE the most surprising thing this year in MLB

June 20, 2008  02:05 AM ET

Good luck, Lifer.

June 20, 2008  04:49 PM ET

You too, hemo.

June 21, 2008  05:22 AM ET

The Marlins actually aren't that surprising. They do this every year. A lot of credit has to be given to their owner Jeffrey Loria for stealing Montreal's great scouts and executives. A team like the Orioles have been far more surprising especially when you look at the quality of their division.

June 21, 2008  08:17 AM ET

very good arguments on both sides though, hard to vote against either user

June 21, 2008  09:07 AM ET

Nice job guys. But in this case, I have to give a slight edge to LIFER. As any BP disciple will tell you, Rule #10 clearly states- never draft Ryan Dempster.

The fact that he's overcome that rule is worthy of a vote.

June 21, 2008  01:17 PM ET

Good arguments on both sides. However, Lifer makes a great point about how poorly the Marlins fared vs. their division. Only winning record is against the Nationals, who most teams are beating anyway. Currently, the Marlins are on the bottom half in the NL in both pitching ERA and team hitting(AVG).
Dempster's inidvidual stats, on the other hand, is a little bit more impressive. A 2.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a .192 BAA and an 8-2 record is quite an accomplishment thus far.

 
June 21, 2008  03:07 PM ET

Great arguments by both. I have to give my vote to Hemo though.

Great job by you two.

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