Throwdowns > Completed

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  • July 02, 2008 02:44 PM ET

I'll try this again.. Who will win the NL East??? A homer td for me..

PhillyFan83: Bring it Brewers (73-30-11) vs Moondizzle... (39-30-10)
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The Phillies.

Despite their recent struggles, they still hold onto 1st place. The past 2 weeks aside,they have been one of the most complete teams in the MLB.

They have the 4th best run differntional in baseball.

They have the best bullpen ERA in the league.
Tom Gordon- J.C. Romero-Brad Lidge has been one of the best combos this year for 7-8-9 inning.

The rotation has been solid. They are 5th in ERA.
Hamels has been very strong for the most part, and the only weak spot in the rotation has been Brett Myers who was optioned to AAA.

The hitting is STILL dangerous. Very dangerous, especially at home.
So what if they are in the middle of the pack for AVG and H. They still are near the top in R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, SB, SB%,and 2B.

They have nice lineup with speed (J-Roll and Victorino), power (Howard, Burrell, Utley), and AVG (Utley, Rollins, Burrell).

The NL East is just not that great this year.

Atlanta is banged up.
The Mets, regardless of manager are still a mess.

The Marlins, while playing good, can't relay on the 3rd worst ERA in the league and swinging for HR's while playing poor defense all year. It's going to catch up to them.


New York Mets

I'd be a little careful insinuating that holding onto the division with such a tenuous lead is a positive. As you said, the NL East is just not that great this year, and they have a small 1.5 game lead over the Marlins.

As far as run differential is concerned, I'm not concerned. They have a 3.5 game lead over the Mets, whose run differential is in the negative (+77 Phils, -4 Mets). Just look at the NL Central, where the run differential between the Cubs & Cards (+100 to +31) gives Chicago a 2.5 game lead.

They're mashing at home gives them a 22-18 record there. Same as the Mets at Shea. Its comparing a bandbox to the field of dreams. With the corn.

Keys to a Mets 2nd half surge:

1. Johan Santana - With the exception to 2007, Santana has been a 2nd half phenom. In 2006 he was just plain scary from Aug-Oct. with 77.1 IP, 7-1 record, 85 SO's, and a 2.07 ERA. Expect more.

2. David Wright - Perennial MVP Candidate. He is Mr. 2nd Half. Last year he hit .394 in Aug., .352 the rest of the way with 12 HR and 41 RBI. 10 SB as well.

3. Stability - No more Willie questions. Set roles for the Bullpen. Interim manager with moxie. More Alou, Church, Pedro.


This was the team I was expecting.

I'll compare the teams..

Both teams have identical AVG 257.

Phils though beat NY in HRs, H, R, 2B, OBP, SLG, while NY beats the Phils in SB, mainly due to Reyes. They have a better AVG with RISP.

Defensively the Phils are better in the field 984% to 981.

The Phils at home- 22-18.
Forget about the past 2 weeks. They picked a bad time to struggle yes, but look at the teams they faced... @STL, BOS, LAA, @OAK, @TEX.... Not exactly gimme series...

1. Johan Santana... true he's a 2nd half pitcher.. but the Phils have their ace in Hamels. Outside of Johan, the staff has been very inconsistent.. Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey have all had up and downs seasons. Pedro has not been the same we've seen over the years and age is a factor.

2. Speaking of age.. the Mets's players might be wearing down. Alou, Delgado, Schnieder, even Wagner we see aren't exactly young anymore.

3. You have Wright.we have Utley. Howard puts up HUGE 2nd half #'s.

4. The Mets still play sloppy. The Phils have an advantage in the bullpen by a long shot. Wagner and Lidge are somewhat close, but outside of that the Mets bullpen is poor. Heart is also a big ??


Let me address something you brought up last. Heart. I'm sick of hearing it, sorry. The 'lack of heart' is overblown by NY papers. When Jose Reyes shows TOO much emotion after an error, he's immature. But his heart? Wagner calling out his teammates? Wrong strategy. Plenty of heart. That topic has to cease.

The defensive statistics are negligible at best, firstly.

22-18 at home is 22-18. The Mets are slightly worse on the road - and have gone West FOUR times.

These teams have barely played one another. Mets have the tiny edge.

My statement on Santana stands. Hamels is not in his territory - YET. Maine hasnt been himself YET, but Pelfrey has been nothing but up the last month. He had never had an 'up' until this season.

Age: Alou hasnt even played. Delgado, if anything, has been 10 times better in June. Schneider is not as old as you think, and all closers blow saves. Wagner still throws high 90's.

Utley isnt the second half player Wright is, though he's had an MVP year so far. In the 2nd half Wright sports a .324 average & .944 OPS to Utley's .293 & .887 respectively.

The Mets bullpen has been solid once roles were re-evaluated. They have UNDER-performed.


The Mets pen is better than it was in previous years.. Schoenweis (spelling?) and Heilman have been better.. but they don't compare to the Phils's Romero (1.67 ERA), Chad Durbin, a nice long reliver (1.65), Rudy Seanez (2.45), and while Tom Gordon's ERA is high.. its mainly due to a few implosions and a couple of bad outings recently...

Lidge- 0 blown saves, .82 ERA, > Wagner

Another thing the Phils have over the Mets is their play against each other. Dating back last year when the Phils beat NY 10 straight ending the year. While this year both teams have been about even vs each other, the Phillies have the Met's number.

I didn't say Utley was the 2nd half player Wright is. But Howard most certainly can compete...

07- 280 AVG, 26 HR, 69 RBI, 611 SLG
06- 355 AVG, 30 HR, 78 RBI, 751 SLG

He's a 2nd half player.

Inconsistency is still a problem with the bats as well....

Beltran this year has gone through cold and hot stretches..
Delgado is in a recent hot surge, but is still hitting 236.
Reyes and Wright produce, but not to their potential just yet...

The Phils have a good enough all-around team and will have enough willpower to regain the NL East crown.


Sorry I've been delinquent, Philly. I'm extremely busy at work and conducting an NBA TD you should check out. (You may see alot of ???'s, as I had to paste this)

I'm not going to take anything away from the bullpen in Philly. It's been very good. I like the makeup of the Mets 'pen, with Duaner Sanchez returning to old form and new roles being allocated to Heilman, Schoenweiss (spelling, awful), and Feliciano.

Correct me if I'm wrong - feel free - but the Mets did win the 2 series played so far this season, right? Last season really means nothing. Just like 2006 meant nothing in 2007. We're talking about the 2008 NL East.

Reyes & Wright not at their potential? Sure, they have been slow to get hot. But Reyes is back at .295 and has 103 hits. He's back, though his defense is slow to rebound. And I described Wright above.

With Myers now in the minors of all places, can Philly really rely on the rest of that rotation to succeed? Hamels is very good, but he's not Santana. I like Jamie Moyer, but you mentioned in argument 1 how the rotation has been 'solid'...why are they barely ahead of the rest? 22-18 at home?

Til now, we still haven't seen the real Mets.

July 2, 2008  02:59 PM ET

I'll sign up for a loss. Good times. Lets have a homer-fest.

July 2, 2008  03:12 PM ET

I'll be watching this.... but its baseball and no one cares till Sept/Oct

July 2, 2008  03:21 PM ET

Prowess.

July 2, 2008  03:25 PM ET

I still have hopes for the Braves but after seeing the Phillies whip them last night I dont think they can overtake the Phillies now.

July 2, 2008  03:32 PM ET

Do yourself a favor. Re-read the throwdown, and determine who argued for the Braves.

July 2, 2008  03:33 PM ET

hey moondizzle i didnt say anyone argued for the braves try to keep up. I am a braves fan, and I hope they will win the East, but I dont think they will. Nor do I think the Mets will win it. The Phillies will win the NL East.

July 2, 2008  04:09 PM ET

Marlins.

July 2, 2008  04:24 PM ET

Thats all you had to say lakers.

July 2, 2008  04:34 PM ET

By the way, I do keep up.

But mentioning the Braves, and not the Mets, a little odd. There are arguments to watch though.

Porkins, when you see this: Whiny enough? Please let me know. I'm striving here.

July 2, 2008  05:00 PM ET

Nationals. Stop whining.

July 2, 2008  05:11 PM ET

A double HOMER TD, sweet.

July 2, 2008  06:05 PM ET

hope the Phils though can do somethin at the deadline. Another bat or pitcher would be nice.

July 2, 2008  06:33 PM ET

Uphill battle I expect to lose, but it will be fun to debate with a Phillies fan that knows his business and doesnt yell like he's in a cage.

July 2, 2008  06:34 PM ET

Uphill battle I expect to lose, but it will be fun to debate with a Phillies fan that knows his business and doesnt yell like he's in a cage.

July 2, 2008  06:50 PM ET

Agreed with phillyfan83

July 2, 2008  07:15 PM ET

Haha as Billy Wagner would say...."F'ing Shocker!"

July 2, 2008  08:01 PM ET

Nice throw man..

 
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