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Bigdleech said 07/06, 10:14 PM
He was the king of grass courts too, wasn't he? And Nadal beat Federer on Roger's surface. So I think that he is the leader of one of three people with a very legitimate shot to beat Federer.

First up is clearly Nadal. He has beaten him in two straight grand slam finals. Granted, neither was on hard court, but that is still a big confidence booster. Nadal actually owns Federer in head to head competition. Even if he doesn't catch him in the points by then, Nadal will still probably be number one in the eyes of most people.

Next is Novak Djokovic. He won the Australian Open over Federer. In case you didn't know, that is a hard court. He also dominated Federer in a US Open warm up last year. He has had a great year, even though his Wimbledon ended in disappointment.

Finally, you can never count out Roddick in this major. He always seems to step it up this time of the year, especially over the last couple years, and he of course won it back in 2003. He was having a pretty good year until he got injured, beating the other three mentioned in this td. The injury probably effected him at Wimbledon, but he will be 100% by the time the US Open rolls around.

Bigdleech said 07/06, 10:42 PM
Federer leads Nadal 3-2 head to head against Nadal. That isn't exactly a big advantage. He had the head to head lead against Nadal on grass too, didn't he? I only mentioned that people would view him as the best player. Where does it seem like I'm trying to argue that he won't be number one? If I was, I wouldn't have mentioned Roddick and Djokovic.

Roddick has beaten him twice. He has beaten him two out of three times, if you count an exhibition match between the two where Roddick slaughtered Federer in two sets. Federer has owned most people. He is having a down year for his standards. Roddick won the last matchup, so why can't he do it again?

Federer had something to prove at Wimbledon after getting embarassed by Nadal in Paris. And he still lost on his own court. Confidence is huge in this sport. And all of the confidence belongs to Nadal. Nadal will be the best player in the world when the US Open rolls around. People thought Federer's advantage on grass was much bigger than his advantage on hard court, so it should be easier for Nadal.

Djokovic is the one guy who has won a hard court grand slam this year, so he might just come in as the favorite.

Bigdleech said 07/06, 11:10 PM
Anyway, TradeAngelos makes a point. But again, its not like Nadal is even the biggest threat to Federer at the US Open. That distinction probably goes to Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic didn't just beat him in the Australian Open this season, he dominated him. He beat him in straight sets. Not many people can do that. Other than Nadal, that is. Nadal may not be the best hard court player, but he has still done better than most over his career against Nadal.

Djokovic has won the only hard court Grand Slam this season. That means a lot more than Federer winning it the last four years. If Federer has won Wimbledon, then he probably would be the favorite to win the US Open. But when he can't win on his surface against a guy that he is supposed to beat on that surface, it doesn't bode well for him.

You want to count the exhibition against Sampras. How about when he beat Federer? Off the top of my head, I want to say that it was back in November. But it was probably even more recent than that.

And again, you can never count off Roddick. This is his country, and he always seems to step it up.

Federer is being passed by Nadal, and the US Open might put Djokovic above him too.