Throwdowns > Completed

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  • July 09, 2008 10:43 AM ET

Out of the four NBA Conference Finalist, Lakers, Spurs, Pistons, and Celtics, which team will have the biggest drop off.

maxwellinformed (7-21-0) vs T-fo is Medium Pimpin' (132-64-14)
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I'm going to have to say the San Antonio Spurs will not make it back to the Conference Finals. Losing 4-1 to the Los Angeles Lakers age and bench depth appeared to be major factor for the Spurs.

Spurs missed out on Maggette,Orlando Magic have a verbal agreement with Pietrus, now the Spurs are reduce to looking at players like J.R. Smith (who I think Denver will try to keep) and Carlos Delfino. These players don't resolve their problems matching up to quicker deeper teams of the western conference.


I'm going to go with the Pistons.

They won 59 games last year at a 72% winning percentage.

Their big guns of Hamilton, Wallace and Billups are all on the plus side of 30 years old, and Prince is getting close.

I'm not saying they are going to suck, or that they will miss the playoffs, but I can easily see them losing 8 or 9 more games next year to finish say 50 and 32. Still a good record.

On the flip side, if the Spurs lost 9 more games next year they would wind up 47 and 35. I just don't see that happening.


The most glaring difference between Detroit and San Antonio was, Detroit actually got solid production from their young guys. San Antonio had to rely on "Big Shot Bob" and Brick House Michael Finley. As long as, Rodney Stucky and Jason Maxiell keep improving Detroit will be fine.

While both conferences have improved, the Western Conference is still the toughest conference. Even teams that didn't make the playoffs in the west can make the playoffs in the east.

Most improved team next year may be Sixers with Elton Brand (IF he stays healthy), and they still can't compete with Detroit, Boston, Toronto, or Orlando.


. +


Like I said, I'm not saying the Pistons will stink, I'm just saying they have much less room to improve and further to fall.

To make a choice just look at the win totals for each team this year.
Detroit - 59
Spurs - 56

I'm sorry, with a still elite Duncan, I don't see the spurs as a sub-50 win team next year. I see a small fall off, perhaps 3 or 4 games, meaning they would still win 52 or 53 games.

I project similar numbers for Detroit, with an aging roster and a new coach to boot. So lets give the Pistons the same record with 52 or 53 wins.

Since they started out with more though, that translates to a bigger falloff from this year's record, which is what this TD is all about to begin with.


Spurs are an elite team surrounded by other elite tSan Antonio Spurs are in arguabley the toughest division in the league. New Orleans, Houston, Houston and Dallas all competed for best record in the West. Only 7 games seperated 8th place and 1st place in the west. This tells you how close the teams are to each other. Manu has not been 100% since the Finals 2 years ago, and Spurs continue to get older. A MINOR slip up and they are out of conference finals contention or even the playoffs.


However the 1st and 8th in the East are seperated by 26 games. That's a big drop off in talent. Detroit will still be elite in the East. It would take a MAJOR slip up, injury or bad GM decision, for Detroit to fall from Conference contender to pretender.


The Lakers, Utah, and Phoenix are still power houses in the West also, add to that a more athletic and younger Portland (adding Greg Oden) and GS and you see that the odds of San Antonio making it back to the Conference finals are far less than Detroit's in a weaker east.


This TD wasn't about who makes or doesn't make the conference finals, it was about who has the biggest dropoff.

To me, that means change in level of performance. You will get no argument from me that the West is not difficult. That's common knowledge. If the TD tile was "Which of these Four Teams Won't Make the Conference Finals Next Year", your argument would be more in line.

With all that said, I still maintain that the Spurs will remain a very good team. Perhaps not championship level, but still enough to win more than 50 games, and certainly enough to drop off less than the Pistons will during their new retooling of team and coach.

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July 9, 2008  10:58 AM ET
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Spurs and Pistons are definitely the 2 candidates here.

The Spurs are getting plain old.

The Pistons are old (a tad younger than the Spurs, though) and the offseason moves they're undoubtedly are going to make are an unknown factor, unpredictable results.

July 9, 2008  11:04 AM ET
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Pistons because they fired Saunders. I just never put my money againt Duncan and Pop.

July 9, 2008  11:25 AM ET
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i am leaning right currently... i actually expect the creater of this TD to have the pistons i thought it was more of the obvuious choice. however you coudl make good arguements for either. waiting for final arguements

July 9, 2008  11:31 AM ET
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New coach, aging stars, and more room for deterioration...have to go right here. But good choices by both.

July 9, 2008  11:32 AM ET
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Remember that Manu was hurt for most of the playoffs, that had a direct effect on the team. But they are getting old.

July 9, 2008  11:40 AM ET
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Um, Pistons are talking of major changes, never a good sign

July 9, 2008  11:40 AM ET
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Nice arguments on both sides

July 9, 2008  11:52 AM ET
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the Spurs? c'mon man. my vote right.
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July 9, 2008  02:42 PM ET
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i would say the Celts because there is no way they are repeating...oh, sorry I blacked out for a second, um probably the Pistons with the new coach. Seriously, though, I can't stand the NBA anymore, it's like watching a pick up game between millionaires. stop freaking whining.

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