FanNation

JDEnquist said 07/13, 12:56 AM
I admit that the USA has had problems in the past few olympics, especially against countries that have played as a team for a longer period, but they have to be the odds on favorite to win the gold.

As of now, nine countries have clinched a birth in the summer games with USA in Group B, a far easier group than Group A. Group B contains China, Angola, Spain, and two TBD qualifiers. USA will likely be in the knock-out round, as they need only finish in the top four of the group, and could very well win Group B. The serious contender in Group B, besides the US has got to be Spain. Spain finished 2nd in Eurobasket (2007) and won the World Championships (2006). Spain's roster contains 7 past, present and future NBA players. At worst the US finishes 2nd in Grp B.

You mentioned China and Yao Ming. Is this the same Yao that hasn't performed well in past olympics and the NBA playoffs? The same Yao coming off a foot injury? Yao was dominated by M Okur and C Boozer in the '07 playoffs, and was healthy in '07. China's best finish in international competition was 8th, in the '94 olympics and '04 World Championships. China finished 15th in the '06 World's, which had Yao on the roster.

JDEnquist said 07/13, 01:18 AM
I see your argument that Argentina has played together and could be dangerous. But Argentina has a glaring problem with their roster...Manu Ginobili. Argentina is successful in international competition by the way the move the ball and most of that comes from the space created by Manu driving the lane, forcing teams to collapse. But Manu has an ankle injury, making his penetration less effective, which was also seen in the SAS/LAL playoff series. Argentina's big guys (Oberto/Scola) feed off put backs and are only 6'10", which would allow for the smaller big men of the US to also compete on the boards. Argentina has enough talent to win (or worst case 2nd) in Grp A.

If both the US and Argetina win their groups, they only meet in the gold medal game. If the US wins Grp B, Spain likely ends up second, forcing Argentina and Spain to meet in the 2nd round, likely ending in a Spain win.

The US has been beaten in past international competitions by poor shooting, the inability to break the zone, and the lack of perimeter defense on opposing teams' guards. I believe those situations have been rectified, which will be addressed in the next argument.

JDEnquist said 07/14, 12:55 AM
Manu will put it all on the line, but the ankle will be Argentina's doom.

As I mentioned, the US got killed by the perimeter scoring of other teams, by their own lack of perimeter D. That situation has been rectified, w/ the guard line of CP3, D-Will, and even the likes of Kobe and Lebron on the perimeter. For example, look at the '07 FIBA America's team. Kobe was playing lock down defense, in addition to his scoring. CP3 led the NBA in steals, with Lebron finishing 5th. D-Will has the big body to be physical with opposing point guards. Even Michael Redd dusted off the D in the "07 FIBA's.

Shooting improved over the last roster in '04. The roster is built to break the zone. Kobe, Lebron, Melo, CP3, Redd, D-Will, D-Wade can all hit the 3. Even Bosh shot 40% from 3 last season and can spread the floor. Boozer has range to 18 ft and Howard is a beast mopping up anything that comes off the rim. The aforementioned players can all drive and dish, exploiting poor rotation on a zone, and that exploitation becomes easier with a longer shot clock, making CP3/D-Will/Kidd kids in a candy store finding the open man with ball rotation.

Their are other teams, but the US is the favorite