FanNation - The Republic of Sport

Porkins said 07/14, 01:06 PM
I had to take this one since you live near my old stomping grounds. Portland was my last stop before coming to NC.

Anyhoo, I actually laughed out loud when you said:

"And I won't belive the Cubbies till they actually win it."

The Phillies have won a whopping ONE World Series and that was 28 years ago. Not exactly a tradition of excellence, no offense to Phillies fans.

If you're not going to believe in the Cubs, then that same principle should apply to the Fightin' Phils.

"They have a solid base of young stars"

Do they? As I've said before, their youngest starter is Shane Victorino, age 27. In fact, only two guys younger than Victorino have had at bats this year.

Most of their team is hovering around 30.

And even if they DID have a solid base of young stars, so do plenty of other teams. And some of them aren't even close to sniffing the playoffs.

"Their pitching will imrpove."

Their pitching has actually been pretty good. They have the best bullpen ERA in baseball, and are Top 10 overall.

But that said, they missed out on Sabathia, and probably need another front-end pitcher to solidify their chances in the post-season.

Porkins said 07/14, 02:08 PM
1. You're assuming they win the division. The Phils have the second worst record of any division leader and have the Mets and Marlins with a game and a half.

So with a huge first half from Utley and Howard, career numbers from Burrell AND the game's best bullpen, they've only managed to secure a half-game lead. Not particularly encouraging.

The NL will likely be hotly contested down to the wire. I don't see how it's safe to assume they'll win.

2. If they don't win the East, they could very well miss the playoffs. Arizona and the Cubs will probably take the other division titles, but you'll have the Brewers, Cards, Mets, and Marlins (at least) ALL in contention for the Wild Card.

Philly needs to make some adjustments if they want to secure a post-season spot.

3. Even if they DO make the playoffs, they're going to have to win 2 short series. Look at the some of the other combos:

Arz- Webb/ Haren
Chi- Zambrano/ Harden/ Dempster
Mil- Sheets/ Sabathia

Aside from Hamels, who is going be relied on for a quality effort on the bump? 45 year-old Jamie Moyer?


They're struggling to HANG ON. It's assuming way too much to crown them at this point.

Porkins said 07/14, 02:54 PM
Why won't the Mets come back? Why will the Phills win the East? Why will they beat the D-Backs? Why will they beat the Cubs?

I like the opinions, but you don't offer any evidence of why you believe these things to be true.

As for having MVPs, clearly Rollins and Howard weren't the answers... getting swept by the Rockies in 2007 or missing the playoffs entirely in 2006 aren't very good endorsements of the importance of having an MVP.


Philly had a huge May, averaging a run every 5.8 at bats. But in June, the scoring tailed off big time- down to 1 run every 7.7 at bats.

The June number is pretty much in line with March, April, and July, meaning that it's probably a better predictor of what they'll do in the 2nd half.

ALSO, the Phillies winning % is .542. As I said- 2nd WORST among division leaders. Also worse the Cards & Brewers. The sad part is that their strength of schedule is ranked 20th.

20th out of 30.

They've had THAT EASY a schedule and have only managed .542 baseball? Doesn't impress me.

Of the 21 remaining series, 13 are against ATL, NYM, FLA, CHI, and MIL. It gets HARDER, not easier.

Which makes me worry about their chances.