Throwdowns > Closed

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  • 05/29/2009, 01:49PM ET

Who will win the Stanley Cup?

Al Muir (1-1-0) vs Darren Eliot (0-1-0)
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Here's the thing about being so good for so long: people start to take you for granted. How else to explain the near universal belief that Pittsburgh will topple the dynastic Red Wings from their Stanley Cup throne?

Not to belittle the Pens, a motivated team pulsing with confidence, but there's a big leap between knocking off the sixth-place 'Canes and knocking out the reigning champs. And don't try playing the experience card. Losing in the 2008 final may have provided a valuable lesson, but it didn't reveal a hidden cheat code to the Cup. Detroit, on the other hand, is brimming with finals know-how. Adversity? Attrition? No problem. While earning four Cups in 11 years, the core of this team has cleared every hurdle on the path to victory, including injuries.

It's true the Wings are a battered group right now, but don't assume that leaves their underbelly exposed. After all, this group managed to subdue a gifted Chicago team absent the services of Pavel Datsyuk, Nick Lidstrom, Kris Draper and others. Now that Lidstrom is expected back Saturday (with Datsyuk a game-time decision), they're approaching full strength. That leaves only one prudent course of action: Bet on red.


The lessons learned by the Penguins last season weren''t in the losing. The takeaway is in the knowing what it takes once you are in that forum. Suffice it to say this edition of the Pens won't wait until Game 3 to hit the scoresheet, like last year. Even with their early wonderment, they still pushed Detroit to six games.

This time around, the deeper-down-the-middle Penguins -- even if Pavel Datsyuk and Kris Draper are healthy -- have Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby performing at peak power; not so a year ago. That's meant that whether ahead, behind or even, the Pens have found a way to win, going 4-2 when trailing after 20 minutes. The defending champs have been perfect when in front, but haven't yet won when behind after the first or second periods. Throw in their inability to defend while down a man and it's easy to see the Wings have real vulnerabilities. I mean, 15 goals-against while shorthanded just 57 times. This against the varied, dynamic Penguins power play?

And what of motivation? You can't dismiss its importance. Okay, so maybe you can learn something from losing: you don't want to be in that situation again. This year, the Penguins won't be.


The Wings haven't won when trailing? Not sure that's a particularly damning trait considering they've lost just four games in three rounds. What that tells me is three times out of four they grab a lead and don't let go. That tenacity will be a problem for the Pens, a side that???s been guilty of more than a few sleepy starts this spring.

The Wings so often get that early jump thanks to a well-rehearsed brand of team defense. It's a commitment that starts with their forwards and ends with the least appreciated stopper of his era, Chris Osgood.

I'll admit to being among those who wondered if he'd lost it during the regular season. but Osgood has shown he's money when the weather warms up. If backstopping the Wings to a pair of Cups (1998, 2008) doesn???t convince you of his ability to dominate this series, consider this: since replacing Dominik Hasek in the fourth game against Nashville last spring, Ozzie's playoff record is 26-8 with a 1.79 GAA and .927 save percentage. This time around, he's held the opposition to two goals or fewer in 11 of his 16 starts???and he actually won three of the five in which he didn't. That's not just making stops. It's making them when they matter.


Forfeited Turn


Forfeited Turn


Forfeited Turn

May 29, 2009  02:01 PM ET

The Champs are the Champs until dethroned and should be considered the favorites. Should be a good series.

May 29, 2009  02:04 PM ET

This is a different style Pens team than last year.

Last year the Wings out shot the Pens by an average of 13 1/2 shots per game.

This Pens team doesn't get out shot very often.

May 29, 2009  02:12 PM ET

waiting for right, lots of good arguments for the pens in this TD

May 29, 2009  02:37 PM ET

As I recall, Al picked Carolina to beat the Pens.

Waiting for ----------->'s argument/rebuttal, but in the meantime...

"a motivated team pulsing with confidence"

Yep, that's it. That's ALL they have. Nothing else. No talent. No skill. Terrible goaltending. Terrible defense.

Boy, you would have thought the Pens "mailed it in."

May 29, 2009  02:41 PM ET

"...but there's a big leap between knocking off the sixth-place 'Canes and knocking out the reigning champs."

Again, Al picked the Canes to beat the Pens, so I am not sure why the Canes are being dismissed as a fluke now.

May 29, 2009  02:46 PM ET

lil ricky will win the cup!

Comment #8 has been removed
May 29, 2009  02:55 PM ET

"big leap between knocking off the sixth place Canes and knocking out the reigning champs."


There's also a big leap between knocking out a Blackhawks team with very little playoff experience and knocking off a team that was in the finals last year and has gotten better every single year for the past 4 years. What happened last year has absolutely no bearing on what will happen this year. Both teams have some differences in their lineups and the Pens don't even have the same coach as last year. The Pens hung with Detroid after game 2 last year. The Pens have that experience now and they will not come into the first 2 games in Detroit as nervous and overwhelmed as last year. Before every series I've seen many people on here saying that the Pens can't beat whomever they were playing but then after they beat them all of the sudden the excuses come out. The Flyers were undisciplined (or, of course to Flyers fans, the refs cheated), the Caps don't have any defense, Carolina was a fluke the first two rounds etc. Nobody wants to give the Pens any credit for what they've done. I'm sure if the Pens win the Cup everybody will have excuses as to why they beat Detroit also. That's OK though. I see the same thing with the Steelers. Some people just need to rationalize why they're wrong because it's hard for some people to admit that they didn't know what they were talking about.

May 29, 2009  03:19 PM ET

If anyone has listened to anything the Pens players have said or watched any Pens hockey they will know it's a very different style and mindset from last fall nevermind last year. The Pens now dictate the tempo of the game. They aim to play the entire game in the offensive zone, create havoc, and score off opportunities. Very little is scripted except work your ass off, put a ton of pressure on the D and the goalie, and shoot. In the past including last years final Pens were reactive and let Detroit set the tone and hope to turn the puck over in the neutral zone and score that way. This is why the Pens will win the cup in 5 games. The speed, the aggressiveness, and the pressure the Pens will bring will be too much for the injured and slower Wings.

May 29, 2009  03:19 PM ET

You're talking about a Red Wings team that has had more than 35 shots a game for 14 straight games this post season. Not to mention a team with a much better defense than the one you just faced in Carolina

May 29, 2009  03:24 PM ET
QUOTE(#10):

If anyone has listened to anything the Pens players have said or watched any Pens hockey they will know it's a very different style and mindset from last fall nevermind last year. The Pens now dictate the tempo of the game. They aim to play the entire game in the offensive zone, create havoc, and score off opportunities. Very little is scripted except work your ass off, put a ton of pressure on the D and the goalie, and shoot. In the past including last years final Pens were reactive and let Detroit set the tone and hope to turn the puck over in the neutral zone and score that way. This is why the Pens will win the cup in 5 games. The speed, the aggressiveness, and the pressure the Pens will bring will be too much for the injured and slower Wings.

Have you ever watched a Red Wings game before? Do you know basketball? Red Wings hockey is a lot like watching professional basketball. The system warrants itself to surviving the "runs" that other teams will inevitably go on. It's as simple as that. The Wings are built to survive these runs with the front three and the blue liners. Punch, and counter punch. The Wings handle these pushes, and the other team thinks they are controlling the tempo of the game, heck, it certainly looks like it while you are watching it. Until the Wings keep forcing you to increase your tempo as your confidence increases, suddenly its like speeding down a highway at high speed. You think you are in control until you go into a slight skid, then you over-correct. Imagine getting a pass picked off at the blue-line, and because you think you have the Wings on their heels, you have 3 men down below the circle and a defensemen pinching in to pressure puck movement by the defense. Suddenly it's a 2-on-1 and the puck is in the back of the net with you left scratching your head...

May 29, 2009  03:26 PM ET

"You're talking about a Red Wings team that has had more than 35 shots a game for 14 straight games this post season. Not to mention a team with a much better defense than the one you just faced in Carolina "

Right, but you have get out of your own zone and live in the offensive zone to get 35 shots on goal and that won't happen agains the Pens. The Wings will have spurts or flurries but they won't be able to sustain it for long streches. The Pens have too much speed this year.

May 29, 2009  03:28 PM ET
QUOTE(#11):

You're talking about a Red Wings team that has had more than 35 shots a game for 14 straight games this post season. Not to mention a team with a much better defense than the one you just faced in Carolina

thats why this has the markings of a great series. there will be plenty of shots and goals by both teams.

May 29, 2009  03:28 PM ET
QUOTE(#3):

This Pens team doesn't get out shot very often.

This Red Wings team doesn't get out shot very often ethier. Should be a good series.

May 29, 2009  03:30 PM ET
QUOTE(#12):

Have you ever watched a Red Wings game before? Do you know basketball? Red Wings hockey is a lot like watching professional basketball. The system warrants itself to surviving the "runs" that other teams will inevitably go on. It's as simple as that. The Wings are built to survive these runs with the front three and the blue liners. Punch, and counter punch. The Wings handle these pushes, and the other team thinks they are controlling the tempo of the game, heck, it certainly looks like it while you are watching it. Until the Wings keep forcing you to increase your tempo as your confidence increases, suddenly its like speeding down a highway at high speed. You think you are in control until you go into a slight skid, then you over-correct. Imagine getting a pass picked off at the blue-line, and because you think you have the Wings on their heels, you have 3 men down below the circle and a defensemen pinching in to pressure puck movement by the defense. Suddenly it's a 2-on-1 and the puck is in the back of the net with you left scratching your head...

Not this year's Pens sorry. Not with the forwards back checking every shift and not with the defense playing smart every shift. There have been very very few odd man rushes against the Pens in these playoffs. Goals given up have been individual effeorts like Ovechkin, shots from the circles, or 5 off deflections. That's all I am trying to tell you, forget last year, this is a very different team. But we'll see, enjoy.

May 29, 2009  03:37 PM ET
QUOTE(#16):

Not this year's Pens sorry. Not with the forwards back checking every shift and not with the defense playing smart every shift. There have been very very few odd man rushes against the Pens in these playoffs. Goals given up have been individual effeorts like Ovechkin, shots from the circles, or 5 off deflections. That's all I am trying to tell you, forget last year, this is a very different team. But we'll see, enjoy.

When was the last time you saw the Wings win based on individual effort? I appreciate your homerism, everyone does. The Pens are a great team, but trying to compare the Wings against the Hurricanes, who had little business being in the Conference Finals, that just doesn't fly here.

May 29, 2009  03:38 PM ET
QUOTE:

Pretty good opening left.Lidstrom is the best d-man ever!

I think Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey have a say in that

May 29, 2009  03:39 PM ET

I tend to think the Wings will take it, but I'll wait to see right's arguments.

What a lot of people overlooked last year was Detroit's ability to move the puck; the accuracy and liquidity of their passing game. That hasn't changed at all this year. Pittsburgh has a tremendously talented team, but it seems to me that they are a team that thrives on the mistakes of other teams, particularly when the other team fails to set the tempo. Detroit doesn't make a lot of mistakes and is far better at setting the game tempo than Washington or Carolina. However, you Pens fans are right. Last year's final doesn't have much of a bearing on this year's final, but I think the result is going to look the same; Detroit in 6.

PS - You Pittsburgh fans have got to love it this year. If only the Pirates didn't play AAA ball...

May 29, 2009  03:39 PM ET
QUOTE(#16):

Not this year's Pens sorry. Not with the forwards back checking every shift and not with the defense playing smart every shift. There have been very very few odd man rushes against the Pens in these playoffs. Goals given up have been individual effeorts like Ovechkin, shots from the circles, or 5 off deflections. That's all I am trying to tell you, forget last year, this is a very different team. But we'll see, enjoy.

sup rookie

 
May 29, 2009  03:40 PM ET
QUOTE(#19):

I tend to think the Wings will take it, but I'll wait to see right's arguments. What a lot of people overlooked last year was Detroit's ability to move the puck; the accuracy and liquidity of their passing game. That hasn't changed at all this year. Pittsburgh has a tremendously talented team, but it seems to me that they are a team that thrives on the mistakes of other teams, particularly when the other team fails to set the tempo. Detroit doesn't make a lot of mistakes and is far better at setting the game tempo than Washington or Carolina. However, you Pens fans are right. Last year's final doesn't have much of a bearing on this year's final, but I think the result is going to look the same; Detroit in 6.PS - You Pittsburgh fans have got to love it this year. If only the Pirates didn't play AAA ball...

nice one

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