Throwdowns > Completed

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  • July 29, 2007 04:51 AM ET

Out of Bonds, Jr, and A-Rod, who's the best?

Arkus (1-1-0) vs Steelercooz (53-12-2)
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Since it seems that things have boiled down to these three players in all the comments I'm seeing about the HR record, I wanted to throw out this TD.

I'm taking A-Rod as the best HR hitter of the 3 at this point in his career.

Choose one of the other two and throwdown!


Judging objectively by the numbers (and NOT scandal), Barry Bonds is the better home run hitter of three great candidates. If you just want to go by HRs instead of comparing these two fine players by general power numbers, then ok. A-Rod has Bonds through the same part of their career 499-494. Your Throwdown topic kind of ends there. What it doesn't consider is how Bonds has a far higher OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage), which is a far more accurate of a hitter's value.

It also ignores that over Bonds' first eight seasons, he led the league in slugging percentage three times. It took A-Rod until 2003 to lead the league in this stat, and he didn't do it until he had the powerful Yankees lineup protecting him.

I read a comment on FN that put it perfectly: The best hitter Bonds had in his entire career protecting him was probably Jeff Kent. A-Rod has had all kinds of protection, including Griffey for some time when he was in Seattle. Bonds' career leading walks total shows A-Rod has received far more pitches to hit than Bonds.

I don't know about you, but I'll trade five home runs over 14 years for over 700 more walks.


Very good points on Slug%, OBP, OPS, however the HR totals thru 14 season are actually:
1. A-Rod 499 HR's
2. Jr 468 HR's
3. Bonds 445 HR's
And just for comparison Hammerin' Hank had 481 HR's in his 14th.
So it's actually 54 HR's given up for 550 BB's.

Roughly works out to:

A-Rod - 1 HR for every 2 BB's
Bonds - 1 HR for every 3.2 BB's
not a huge diff there.


Walks-to-home-runs isn't exactly a worthy stat, though. It doesn't directly link the value of a guy's power. Bonds was pitched to far less than A-Rod was. This is partially because Bonds never had anyone better than Bobby Bonilla batting behind him, and partially because pitchers would rather put him on first than give him anything to hit.

Let's say Bonds walked the exact amount of times A-Rod did over his first 14 seasons - 880. From Bonds' 1430, that???s 550 more at-bats, or 42 more home runs if you go by his average. That would greatly increase his slugging percentage and OPS.

Along with a better slugging percentage, I'll still gladly take Bonds. If A-Rod hit 54 more home runs over 14 seasons than Bonds, and Bonds walked over 700 times more often, you're trading about four home runs a season for at least 50 times on base.

Again, there's no argument that A-Rod hit more home runs than Bonds over the same stretch of their career, but you cannot accurately gauge the value of a player???s power simply by home runs. When you factor in Bonds production on an even scale with A-Rod, he's far more a valuable power hitter.


Considering that A-Rod only played 65 games combined in his 1st and 2nd season the #???s he???s posting power wise are much more considerable than Bonds.

A-Rod has more:
At-bats
Hits
HR???s
RBI???s
Total Bases
Than Bonds through their 1st 14 years in the Bigs.

A-Rod hit for .500+ Slug% for the first time in his 3rd year, it took Bonds till his 5th. Also in that 3rd year A-Rod actually hit a Slug% of .631, Bonds didn???t get .600+ Slug% till his 7th year. Oh yeah did I mention that A-Rod???s 3rd year was his 1st full year also???..maybe I did.

A-Rod will also be the youngest player to reach 500 HR???s. and will also get 3000 hits faster and even possibly before Bonds.


If you're going to remove the first two years of A-Rod's career, then we can't look at this from an aggregate perspective. Bonds accomplished so much more with less. This largely goes down to protection in the lineup. A-Rod has never played on a team who could not provide him with a solid 4 or 5 hitter. He played with Griffey at his best, and in his MVP year of 1997. He played with Pudge in Texas just two years after he won the MVP.

The best player Bonds had protecting him in his first 14 seasons in the majors is Bobby Bonilla in Pittsburgh in 1990. And guess what happened? Bonds walked twice as much as Bonilla did, and they finished 1 and 2 in the MVP voting. Or, in other words, they pitched to Bonilla, they didn't pitch to Bonds, and Bonds STILL won the MVP.

They both left Pittsburgh, and Bonilla was known for little more than threatening to beat up a reporter with the Mets. Bonds went on to win the MVP five more times. A-Rod, from the start of his career, was surrounded by Hall of Fame talent.

Bonds had to do it alone in the lineup during most of his first 14 seasons, and was given far less to hit.

July 29, 2007  07:04 AM ET

Thank you for voting for the better argument

July 29, 2007  07:51 AM ET

lol Cooz. No ones voted yet. Are you just putting that there for later?

July 29, 2007  08:08 AM ET

It's a polite reminder, that's all. Besides, I've been up working on a BS proposal and I'm sort of wound up on coffee. Jumping the gun, perhaps.

July 29, 2007  08:11 AM ET

Haha I hear ya on the wound up part.

July 29, 2007  08:24 AM ET

Ah coffee. Well I'm on three hours of sleep, Cooz. Went to bed at three and then we had a nast thunderstorm at six this morning. I was so out of it. I got up and asked my dad if it was happening in his room, too.

July 29, 2007  08:29 AM ET

And someone ruins it by voting...

July 29, 2007  09:05 AM ET

LOL! Nice, DJ. Did your dad just throw a slipper at you like mine did when I bugged him in the morning?

July 29, 2007  09:06 AM ET

Good stuff, Atkus...I was hoping this was going to be a good one.

July 29, 2007  09:15 AM ET

I try and thanks for making good arguments aswell.

July 29, 2007  09:19 AM ET

Nah he was up. Just laying in his bed. We got up and made pancakes. It was a pretty nasty storm. Lots of lightning. Still thundering. Some hail. Not exactly what I would like to wake up to in the morning.

July 29, 2007  09:26 AM ET

I like Steelercooz's argument.

A-Rod, despite popular belief, has had plenty of protection.. in Seattle with Griffey and Edgar Ramirez and especially in Texas with Pudge, Rafael Palmeiro, Blalock, Michael Young, and Juan Gonzalez.

By the end of his career, IF he stays healthy, A-Rod will be the only player to hit 800 home-runs.. that IS popular belief.

July 29, 2007  10:20 AM ET

It's popular belief because it's not a stretch to say A-Rod can get there, and even further Pujols could too. In the next 20 or so years it's not completely impossible to see Bonds and Aaron not 1 and 2 on the HR list but maybe 4 and 5.

July 29, 2007  10:28 AM ET

if Jr. Never gets hurt, I'll take him. But now I like Bonds. The OBP is high with him, so even if he doesn't hit, he gets on all the time

July 29, 2007  10:29 AM ET

Cooz out-argued Arkus by a mile.

July 29, 2007  10:35 AM ET

Jr would have if he'd not got hurt I agree. But Bonds is not as far ahead as some would think, there are a couple players that baring injury and if they choose to play long enough could completely destroy any number Bonds puts up.

July 29, 2007  10:44 AM ET

I hate it when you're typing and then get distracted and delete what you typed before you saved it, I forgot to mention A-Rod has a higher BA too.

July 29, 2007  11:19 AM ET

We're not making this argument 10 years from now. We're making it based on the comparable years of their careers. Could A-Rod just get into a Bonds-like zone where he hits 400 home runs in the last eight seasons of his career? Yeah, he could. He's that good of a hitter. But only one of them has already done it past 37, and that's Bonds.

Jury's still out, obviously, on where A-Rod will finish. But his comparison always will be Bonds, and I still think Bonds did more overall with less than A-Rod.

July 29, 2007  11:23 AM ET

True very true on A-Rod comparison to Bonds, I think the biggest obstacle he'll face is in the next 6-8 years he may just say screw it and retire.

July 29, 2007  11:29 AM ET

And to your last argument I wasn't suggesting that we remove the 1st 2 years from A-Rods #'s, I was merely stating that during those 1st 2 seasons he had done practically nothing. Thereby making what he did do in the 12 following seasons more substantial to his ability as a power hitter.

 
July 29, 2007  11:32 AM ET

He'll get out of New York, and I think he'll get some appreciation elsewhere. It really will come down to just money with him. If he accepts less later in his career to play for a winning team that already has pitching in place, he'll be successful. Coincidentally, I think the best bet is to see A-Rod in San Francisco. Bonds will break Aaron's record, and retire. I see A-Rod fitting in quite well there.

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