LaDainian Tomlinson . . . .
bIGROCKHOGG said 08/01, 11:20 AM
. . . . will break Jerry Rice's Td record of 208 Tds. LaDainian already has 117 total Tds (run,rec,pass). He just turned 28 yrs old and should be an effective weapon for at least another 7 seasons.
Bio1590 said 08/01, 03:26 PM
Not necessarily.
Tomlinson is already 26th in rushes in 6 years. At the rate he's going he'll be at 2734 by the time he's 30, or 14th all time.
By the time he's 31 he'll be at 3075, 5th All-time, ahead of Sanders, Allen, Dickerson, Faulk, etc.
At his current rate of TDs per rush, with 3075 carries he'd be at 150 rushing TDs, and if his receiving goes the same he'll be at 17 receiving TDs, or 167 Total.
Now, given the fact he'll have touched the ball over 3600 times in just 9 years, I cannot see him going much longer.
Tomlinson will be done by the time he's 32 or 33.
bIGROCKHOGG said 08/02, 01:23 AM
L T will not be done by the time he is 32 or 33. He is that type of back that never takes a big hit. U can only get a piece of him. Even if he does retire by 33 he still would get the record at the rate he is scoring Tds. He averages over 19 TDs per season. His TD total has gone up every year of his career. He likely won't put up another 31 this year but is pretty much a lock for at least 20. He has only played 6 years and has 111 tds and 6 more passing. He definately will play at least another 6 years and needs to average just 16 tds per year for the recod. IF he has another monster year then that needed 16 per goes down. LT will get it done before he retires.
Bio1590 said 08/02, 02:58 AM
You realise history is against Tomlinson, right?
You couldn't get a piece of Sanders, and even he retired after 10 years.
Curtis Martin was hard to hit and he finally succumbed.
30 is like a wall to RBs.
Tomlinson will most definitely slow down. Emitt sure as hell did.
I'm not even counting the 369 rushes he had his final season at TCU either. That's a HUGE amount for a college RB.
bIGROCKHOGG said 08/02, 03:56 AM
here goes some guys that were succesful in their 30's
As for Barry he only retired because he was stuck on the Lions. He could have easily played another 4-5 years and been the All-Time Rushing yd leader.
Emmit Smith put up three 1,000+ yd and two 900+ yd seasons in his 30's
and he took way more of a pounding than LT by the age of 28.
Marcus Allen scored 65 touchdowns while being a 30-something RB
Curtis Martin put up 1,500 and 1,900 yds from scrimmage while being over 30. If he still had the desire to play he could.
Bio1590 said 08/02, 04:53 PM
You do realize that Emmit Smith played 8 seasons by the time he was 28, right?
And thank you for pointing out Smith.
His stats per year when he turned 30?
249 Carries, 964.8 Yards (3.8 YPC), 6.5 TDs
A far cry from his 20s
323.8 Carries, 1396.2 Yards (4.3 YPC), 13.9 TDs
His YPC dropped a HALF a yard. Also, his YPC his last 4 years was 3.6.
Tomlinson has more carries in his first 6 years than Emmitt, not including the 369 he took his final year in college. Emmitt never exceeded 290 carries in any year at Florida.
Emmitt and LT are different backs anyways. LT is your flashy Barry Sanders-like guy, while Emmitt just took the rock and ran forward for 3-5 yards. His career high in YPC was 5.3, and his second highest was only 4.7. He got you your TDs and yards.
Marcus Allen had 60 TDs in his 30s. Most of that came from 3 single seasons, not spread out evenly. He had 12, 12, and 11, and in the others he only averaged 5/season. And if you must know, Allen NEVER rushed for over 900 yards in his 30s.
Curtis Martin could still play today? LOL he doesn't even have a freaking working knee. If you noticed, Martin only played 3 seasons in his 30s, and 1 good one
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Comments (27)
passing TDs do not count by the way
J-rod5 | 08/01/07, 11:23 AM
Report Offensive CommentWell if they don't count towards the record then minus 6 Tds from LT and minus 1 Td from Rice. No big deal. He still will get the record.
bIGROCKHOGG | 08/01/07, 11:57 AM
Report Offensive Commentactually, LT still has 117 TDs. 100 rushing, 17 receiving. 208 is the number for rice receiing and returning and maybe rushing i'm not sure
J-rod5 | 08/01/07, 12:03 PM
Report Offensive CommentOK J-rod you should have took this throwdown because this dude took it like 20 minutes ago and has not posted an argument.
bIGROCKHOGG | 08/01/07, 12:21 PM
Report Offensive Commenthe does not have another seven good years in him, maybe five more where he will contribute. 35 would be very old for a running back
Bigdleech | 08/01/07, 12:31 PM
Report Offensive Commentyea but than i realized. how close LT was. if any1 was going 2 do it, it would be LT
J-rod5 | 08/01/07, 12:32 PM
Report Offensive CommentRice has 197 receiving, and 10 rushing. That being said, at 28 years old he only had 79. But LT plays a position that does not get better with age. In fact, after 30, most RBs fall apart. Their knees and shoulders simply cannot take the pounding.
Gruden Again | 08/01/07, 03:21 PM
Report Offensive CommentRice's record is safe.
LT will probably get 150-170.
Fan...Favre Fan | 08/01/07, 08:38 PM
Report Offensive Commenthey favrefan 12 L T will be close to 150 after this season
bIGROCKHOGG | 08/02/07, 01:05 AM
Report Offensive CommentAnd what do you mean?
Tomlinson's at 111 total.
He's still 2 or 3 seasons away from making it to 150, and in two seasons he'll be 30 and in 3 he'll be 31.
He will most definitely slow down after that if he hasn't already.
Bio1590 | 08/02/07, 03:02 AM
Report Offensive CommentHe definately has not slowed down already. He is in his prime right now and will be in his prime for another 2 seasons at least. He just scored 31 tds last season and passed for 2 more. I can see him scoring 20+ TDs for another 4 years and then begin to slow down a little.
bIGROCKHOGG | 08/02/07, 04:03 AM
Report Offensive CommentLT is a workout warrior who keeps himself in top physical shape. He is one of those athletes that can stay healthy and produce for 15 years.
mamaT | 08/02/07, 04:18 AM
Report Offensive CommentI cant believe bigrock said that Curtis Martin could still play if he had the desire. He has no cartiledge in his knee, and its bone on bone. Thats painful even for an everyday person, much less a running back. He wanted to play, but the pain was too excruciating. He loses my vote just for that comment. Plus, there is no way Tomlinson goes for another 7 years. I say 5, maybe 6. He is one nasty hit away from a career ending injury. You cant bank on a guy, that gets that many touches, going completely injury free his entire career. Its way too difficult. I would like to see him do it, but the odds are against him.
C-Money | 08/02/07, 05:58 AM
Report Offensive CommentStarting backs in a single runningback, heavy run team do not last past 30.
Nattybohfiend | 08/02/07, 01:15 PM
Report Offensive CommentAll it takes is that one hit. One surgery and there goes his speed and cutting ability for at least a season. Even after that he'll never be the same.
Nattybohfiend | 08/02/07, 01:16 PM
Report Offensive CommentOfcourse, everybody is one hit away from their career ending. I'm considering the fact that he has stayed healthy so far after 6 years. As of right now he is healthy. Who is to say that he can't play another 6 seasons? And Curtis could sit a year and come back when fully recovered if he wanted. He isn't a guy who would chase a record though. L T loves to put up big numbers. If he gets within reach, I am pretty sure he will go for it.
bIGROCKHOGG | 08/02/07, 01:59 PM
Report Offensive CommentCurtis is done.
His knee doesn't work properly. He completely shredded the cartilage and they had to remove it.
Bio1590 | 08/02/07, 04:54 PM
Report Offensive CommentNO way he breaks it and I am a huge LT fan, nice TD though to you both....
B0mb3rs (HoF) | 08/02/07, 05:00 PM
Report Offensive CommentI love LT too...but he won't break that record. RB's just aren't durable enough.
tp10super | 08/02/07, 05:14 PM
Report Offensive CommentI like LT, and I'll even go as far to give him an outside shot at getting there, but there's no way I can bank on him. He's probably the only RB that has the opportunity to do it, but the fact is that a RB won't get there.
This one is as close as an unbreakable record as the NFL has.
railbird | 08/02/07, 05:22 PM
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