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  • August 09, 2007 06:43 AM ET

OATTA II: Which NFL team, in 2007, from Week 1 is the most likely to go the longest undefeated?

Steelercooz (53-12-2) vs TheGreat1 (22-11-0)
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Will the 1972 Dolphins have a roommate in Canton this year? Nah, probably not. But one thing we can count on is that we'll be reading stories about this into Week 10.

Preparation is paramount today's game, it???s tough to out-prepare an opponent for 19 straight games. But to make it into Week 10 without a loss, it seems a team need experienced coaching (Dungy in 2005, Vermeil in 2003), explosive offense and a shored-up defense. Perhaps bigger than everything is a favorable schedule.

Consider this: The home team was 12-6 in 18 MNF games last season, and OAK, AZ and MN (a combined 35 losses between them) make up three of those home losses. It's reasonable to suggest the team taking an undefeated record the furthest will have coaches who know how to prepare their teams, a dependable offense and defense, and a lack of a road Monday Night game.

The Denver Broncos have the best mix of this. Travis Henry gives them an improved running game, the improvement of Jay Cutler will help keep the safety out of the box. Their D is always outstanding.

Biggest of all, they don't have a road MNF game until Dec. 13. Against Houston. Reliant Stadium doesn't exactly scare Mike Shanahan.


Year after year we ponder a team joining the ranks of the 72 Dolphins. The Colts were so close a few years back before falling to the Chargers and there have been countless conversations beyond week 10 of a team going undefeated. If you look at each teams schedule in 07 you might find that talk will cease around???week 6? Yep

Denver is an excellent team but I don???t even see them making it past week 5 undefeated. They may not have a road MNF game until Dec. 13, but they still have to get past Jax, Indy, AND the best team in the regular season league last year the Chargers in their 1st 5 games. 2 suffocating defenses and a goofy looking boy from N???Awlans that threw 49 TDs in 2004. Ouch

For this reason the Steelers have the best chance to go the longest, and I am only calling that to week 6. The combined record of their 1st 5 opponents is 33-51, compared to the Broncos at 43-37. Almost 20 games under .500 starting with Clev, Buff, SF, AZ, and Seattle, 4 of those at home. That shouldn???t make new head coach Mike Tomlin shudder. Their defense is always tough and Krustyberger will be fully recovered from his accident. Add the development of Santonio Holmes and that???s a potent offense


Ah! Well played!

Ben sucks, doesn't he? Losing Porter is going to be a problem, I thought. Since Polamalu has long hair, OBVIOUSLY he ain't squat either. Only three of those games are at home, by the way, and SF is picked by most to be a sleeper team, right behind AZ. Familiarity breeds contempt, and Cle. has been familiar with getting stomped by the Steelers for several games in a row. They're gonna beat all three of those teams, plus win the grudge match against Seattle? Boy, you're gonna be popular in SteelerNation.

The main issue with the Broncos seems to be that of their schedule. They get two extended pre-season games, starting off the year at BUF and home against OAK. Jacksonville at home is certainly a winnable game.

Then everyone's main worry: At Indianapolis.

That goofy boy from N'Awlins has a ring, and it sure is nice to hear about. However, he doesn't have an LT with experience now. The Broncos greatly improved their secondary, and Manning with less time to throw = Manning on the ground. And no DT McFarland? The Colts can't stop the run anyway. Shanahan marches Henry straight through the Dome and onto the Brickyard. 4-0. Next, SD.


Ok, I???ll play your little game. Pitt gets 2 xtra preseason games too against Clev and Buff.

Denver gets Jax at home, but they have a great front 4 that is going to put pressure on Cutler and Den will have trouble running against Big Bad Stroud and Henderson. Jones Drew and Fragile Freddy combine as one of the most formidable attacks in the NFL. Not as winnable as you make it sound.

Mr Commercial has trouble throwing against Champ and Bly, but no matter, Gonzalez has a break out game going against nickel backs Payman or Foxworth. ???Who??? you say. Exactly. I don???t see Denver putting enough pressure on him even with inesperienced Ugoh. Meanwhile Dwight starts earning his pay going against the undersized Denver line

Then to SD, where there is no more Marty ball, but Turner isn???t stupid, he knows his best chance to let LT do his thang and run, catch, throw, dodge, dip, duck, dive, and dodge.

Pitts chances against 2 sleeper teams and the Hawks, who aren???t who they used to be, are much better. Losing Porter hurts, but they planned for that in advance and have depth at LB. Fast Willie runs the Steel City right in to a bye week at 5-0 and on to???.Den


JAX has size up front, but Denver drafts OL for precision, because they zone-block. This neutralizes bigger, toilet-clogging linemen like Stroud and Henderson. Henry is a great back for this kind of offense. They'll dictate the tempo all game.

The only guy using the Five Ds of Dodgeball will be The De-Caf QB. He won't use 3-WR sets because he's going to be in max protect the whole time. As soon as the Denver figures out Tony Ugoh "Screw Yourself" is in, they'll come straight at him, making the DCQB chant "Cut that tackle! Cut that tackle!"

You're counting on a Norv Turner-coached team against a great secondary? I hope you're not drinking in Vegas that weekend. SD lost their best WR to a foot injury, and might not even play against Denver. Even if he does, the big play will be limited. Denver will own the box, and hog-tie LDT every time he touches the ball. Cutler will be able to bide his time, control the clock and let his defense win it. 5-0.

Yeah, the Steelers "depth" at Porter's LB spot was drafted with the 15th pick, and as of this afternoon, has missed 16 practices because of an injury, or **** or something. No athletic LB, no chance to get on the QB in a 3-4.


Why Pitt has a better chance
Clev ??? Do I need to say anything here? Maybe next year, but theyre still rebuilding.
Buff ??? Lynch is still adjusting, Pitt easily neutralizes him. Evans still doesnt have any 1 to help him
SF ??? Good team, but Smith is still learning, hes played cupcake defenses in the NFC West. Their DF is getting better, but are still weak against the run, allowing Willie to run wild. Another win
AZ ??? Getting better, still not great. Pitt will get enough pressure against a transition O line allowing the CBs to cover Boldin and Fitz. Edge loses a gold teeth on a hit from Troy
Seattle ??? Hassleback rips out his remaining hair, spends most of the day on his back. Alexander never gets going, Pitt stacks the box, not being scared of playing Man coverage on Burleson and Branch, who at best are 2 and 3 receivers
Pitt has Haggans, Farrior, Foote, and Harrison starting, Plenty good enough to allow Timmons to rest. Den is worn down with the stretch of 3 playoff caliber teams. They might win 2, but will not win 3. Plus Norv has one of the greatest players in the game to carry the team. Shawn Steroidman wreaks havoc and stops Henry. Cutler cant prove hes the next Elway

Comments (68) Add A Comment

August 9, 2007  06:43 AM ET
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There is a lot of points to be made. Please do not vote until both sides have posted an argument.

August 9, 2007  08:50 AM ET
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man Steerlercooz i want to vote for you now more than ever. But i will say that Denver faces Indy and San Diego early. You have so many points and you picked my team. That said i am not a homer, and consider myself fair so i will wait.

Send out another fanmail so people do not forget to check in later.

August 9, 2007  09:32 AM ET
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Ravens have the easiest schedule till week 12

August 9, 2007  10:12 AM ET
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All points that I'm sure my worthy opponent will mention...lots of arguments left to make, my own included.

(but it does seem to me Indy lost key players at key positions recently, both of which will greatly affect their matchup advantage with Denver, and they are at home against the Chargers. The Ravens have the Bengals on the road in the first MNF game of the year)

August 9, 2007  10:29 AM ET
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WOW! Steeler, you sure took the hard way out!

While Indy and NE and San Diego all play the Broncos, and all play each other early, those 3 HAD the tools in place last year, and most tools are still there.

That being said, I think the AFC got more competitive over the offseason, and think that the winner of this particular TD should be a NFC team.


Oh yeah, I sure hope the Colts beat the 'Boys tonight.

August 9, 2007  10:38 AM ET
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I don't understand the logic that because the NFC isn't very strong, someone should go undefeated longer than anyone else. If it isn't strong top to bottom, how is one team good enough to go 10-0 (to throw out an arbitrary number) to start the year?

Please don't convict me without my day in trial =)

August 9, 2007  10:39 AM ET
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NO way Denver goes 10-0!!! Jay Cutler will have a bad game, or two, or three, at some point during the early part of the season... especially when he'll have to try (TRY!) to keep up w/ the other freakishly super powered Offenses in the AFC. Indy, SD, NE...

August 9, 2007  10:42 AM ET
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Seems to me people said the same thing about Phillip Rivers leading the Chargers last year...Travis Henry certainly isn't Tomlinson, but that's a pretty solid system to get 1,500 yards...Doesn't seem like Cutler will have to do all that much.

August 9, 2007  10:43 AM ET
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Denver beat NE last year, and lost a shootout to Indy, which they lost b/c of a Plummer fumble that handed indy the lead. A year later Denver is improved in about every position, and indy has Manning (which is enough to keep them as a top team reguardless of who they lost) I think Denver can make up the 3 points that they lost by last year.

And SD is the most over rated team in the NFL that doesn't play in boston. Everyone makes so much about coaches yet says nothing when SD hires a known loser. Norv will be fired within 2 non playoff seasons with the Bolts (please quote me on that, i can't wait to say I told you so)

August 9, 2007  10:48 AM ET
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(<AHEM> san diego lost their only playmaking receiver to a foot injury, which destroys a WRs speed after it's healed. NO vertical passing game, 9.5 guys in the box to stop Tomlinson without a strong ability to pass their way out of it...)

August 9, 2007  11:38 AM ET
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Any NFC team would has a better chance of going long without a loss, but in such a weak conference where teams decide to take weeks off and not play up to potential its hard to jump on their bandwagon.

August 9, 2007  11:38 AM ET
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I haven't convicted.......I just saw the steelers up against the broncos in the longest undefeated streak in the nfl next year..


I need to wait for ALL ARGUMENTS for this one.

August 9, 2007  11:40 AM ET
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krustyberger as you call him. just left practise limping!

August 9, 2007  11:49 AM ET
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Yeah, right after I posted that I saw the headline to the right.
Maybe he's just trying to act gangsta...

August 9, 2007  12:03 PM ET
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Ugh...I feel so dirty all of a sudden!

August 9, 2007  12:04 PM ET
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That was yesterday, Lana. He got stepped on coming out of the snap. Stupid Chukky Okobi...

August 9, 2007  12:08 PM ET
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Technically, I look at it like this:

NFC is STRONGER than the AFC because all the teams have more equal talent and so that means the records will be closer; whereas in the AFC the talent levels are off balance because three or four teams have the highest levels of talent...

August 9, 2007  12:18 PM ET
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Yeah, that's what I was tryin' to say, Ben. If they aren't any good, how can one team beat all of them without losing? The NFC is more even top to bottom because the bulk of the heavyweights are in the AFC.

August 9, 2007  12:18 PM ET
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No vote yet, both people have good arguments. I'll have to see how Great1 counters.

 
August 9, 2007  12:24 PM ET
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because there are 2 standout teams in the NFC that can do it,

most of the AFC has decent teams, and would be harder to run the table on them.

That is where I am coming from.

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