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  • 09/27/2010, 11:13AM ET

IU will upset Michigan this weekend

Rudedog: Believe The Hype (370-317-81) vs Grue (43-9-3)
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To say that everyone on campus is anxious for this weekend is a gross understatement.

And honestly, there's lots of reasons to be excited.

We have a QB who has a 179 passer rating, 890 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 72.4% completion percentage

We have a WR core that is one of the nation's best. Our 3rd string WR had 160 yards and a TD Saturday.

We have a running back who is one of the most underrated in the conference.

And the game is at The Rock. Is it your typical 100,000 seating Big Ten stadium? No. But it's more than enough. The Rock is underrated in terms of the advantage it gives IU. The place gets extremely loud with 20,000 students going crazy.

And last year, the Hoosiers should have beaten Michigan. They choked away a lead late and couldn't hang on. They weren't used to playing with a lead.

This year, they're more mature. They know each other more. They are better this year.

With IU's pass first offense and Michigan weak in the secondary, IU will pull out an upset this weekend


There's a reason that IU stocks up on cream-puffs in the out-of-conference schedule, it provides the only chance for the Hoosiers to go bowling. Win only 2 conference games against doormats, and you get to enjoy December 20th someplace warm like Boise, Idaho or Detroit. It's brilliant by the AD.

But I wouldn't tout the offensive of Indiana just yet.

According to Jeff Sagarin, the Hoosiers have faced the 200th toughest schedule in combined FCS and FBS. Out of 244 teams in the combined leagues, 199 of them face a tougher schedule.

James Madson (167) is rolling over in his grave. Delaware (181) could have fried those chickens. 'Nova (165) might a football school. Furman (162) thinks it can be a state, too. Both William and Mary (177) could have racked up 10 Touchdowns a piece.

Your opponents:
Towson (149)
Western Kentucky (12)
Akron (91)

Combined for one win, 11 losses, but they have pride.

So you've completed 72% of your passes. Nice.

Against the worst conference schedule (Michigan State's @ 157), Indiana's offense is still 7th in the Big Ten.

One other note:
"He should be OK." - Rich Rodriguez

You know who.

GL, Rude.


Now, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Michigan hasn't played the cream of the crop defensively

Connecticut - 389 ypg, 21 points against/game, 343 yards against Michigan
Notre Dame - 415 ypg, 28 points against/game, 535 yards against UM
UMass - FCS school; 37 points, 439 yards against UM
Bowling Green - 326 ypg, 39 points against/game, 283 yards against UM

UM hasn't played a great defense. Now, I'm not saying IU is that, but I know that they've handled business as they should have.

And IU has an all-conference LB in Tyler Repogle who will likely have the job of QB spy on Robinson for most the day. And he is well rested after sitting out last week's game.

We both agree this will be a shootout. UM hasn't faced a good defense and neither has IU. Don't hold that against IU and not hold it against UM.

And when it all comes down to it, it's easier to stop one guy running the ball than it is to stop 3-5 WRs all over the field. Rarely, in a shootout, can one person keep a team in the game for a long period of time by himself.

Chappell has 4 great WRs and 2 solid TEs
Robinson has no one

I'll take IU


Neither has played a great defense, but that does not mean the opponent's defenses are equal.

What makes this comparison possible is the similarities. We have apples-to-apples.

Team___Point For___Points Against
IU______41.3_________19.3
UM_____41.3_________23.0

So nearly identical performance but better competition for UM.

Breaking down the opponents rank in FBS+FCS:
Opponents of___W-L___Avg Rank
IU____________1-11____171
UM____________7-9_____78




Michigan has a much better offense overall
Against this better competition, Total offense rank

UM: 563 yds (2nd in the NCAA, 1st Big Ten)
IU: 417 yds (43rd NCAA, 7th Big Ten)


Simply put, IU will have absolutely no chance of slowing Michigan's offense. This is the way RichRod envisioned it when he arrived. Denard Robinson is Pat White for the Maize & Blue.

Michigan's D has been shakey, but they've faced tougher competition than IU with comparable resuts. UMass's 20 point 4th quarter comeback is an outlier, and oddity. BTW, UMass has the 6th best offense in FCS. (Because they played Michigan - self zing!)

Along with Vegas (UM -10.5) and even hating UM (11 yrs), UM wins.


First off, of Michigan's opponents' 7 wins, 3 of them came from FCS UMass

Let's just agree that both have played awful schedules. We're debating 4 wins right now.

Now, you discredit IU's offense for racking up huge numbers against weaker opponents, but Michigan has done the same, just at a simply slightly better level.

with comparable resuts.

205 pass yards to UConn, who averages 181
222 to an FCS school
251 to Bowling Green

I think we both can agree IU's passing attack is better than UConn, UMass, and Bowling Green.

I honestly think that UM has as much chance of stopping IU has IU has of UM.

Another thing is that UM has played many close games while IU has played blow outs. What's that mean?

Against Towson, the starting offense played zero snaps in 2nd half
Against WKU, they didn't play the fourth
Against Akron, they didn't play the fourth

So they're average yards per game isn't even with starters playing four quarters

Upsets happen all the time and we haven't had a big one in the Big Ten yet. IU is about to announce it's arrival


Hope springs eternal in the human breast: Man never is, but always to be Blest.
Alexander Pope


I was wondering if you said this with a straight face - "3 of them came from FCS UMass". Considering the FCS Coaches poll currently has UMass ranked #8 and still has 3x the wins of all of your opponents combined. http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/polls?poll=7

IU's passing attack is better than UConn, UMass, and Bowling Green
Michigan's opponents avg rank - 77.
Indiana's current rank - 85.

IU has played blow outs. What's that mean?
IU's opponents were gawd awful. Dead horse beaten.


Let's turn back the clock to 2009 to the thrilla of the vanilla:
Tate "Heisman" Forcier had a stellar day of 11 of 21 for 184 yards, +15 rushing.
Michigan generated a whopping 372 yards of total offense.
Michigan ran the ball 50 time for just 149 yards (3.0/carry).
And Michigan still won.

Fast-forward one year.
D. "Heisman" Robinson averages 355 yards of total offense, 176 rushing.
Michigan averages 563 yards, nearly 200 more per game.
Michigan averages 331 yards per game rushing, more than twice last year vs IU.
And Michigan still wins.

September 27, 2010  11:21 AM ET

Glad I got someone who at least knows Big Ten football

September 27, 2010  11:28 AM ET

I was at the Akron game and IU's Defense could NOT stop them...

September 27, 2010  11:29 AM ET
QUOTE(#2):

I was at the Akron game and IU's Defense could NOT stop them...

It'll be a shootout for sure. I just think IU can win that battle tho

September 27, 2010  11:40 AM ET

I do think it'll be a close game, but man that Defense blows. IU usually win's and loses a game they're not suppose to. After the heartbreak last year vs Michigan maybe their due to beat them. GO HOOSIERS!

September 27, 2010  11:49 AM ET

This is going to be a 52- 42 kind of game. IU better hope it can keep UM's offense off the field. They will RUN all over the Hoosiers. Run and control T.O.P. IU has a great offense but their defense is as bad as UM's, maybe worse. Stop the run or stop the pass. Stopping the run is more important.

September 27, 2010  12:15 PM ET

Gotta love the homer vote right off the bat.

September 27, 2010  12:17 PM ET
QUOTE(#6):

Gotta love the homer vote right off the bat.

been around since 2007 and 13 comments, yet voting? makes me look awfully suspicious

September 27, 2010  12:19 PM ET
QUOTE(#7):

been around since 2007 and 13 comments, yet voting? makes me look awfully suspicious

IU was on his team list. IU fans are numerous than Yankees and Cowboys. It's all good... I'm sure Wolvie2 will cancel it.

September 27, 2010  12:20 PM ET

*Less numerous.

September 27, 2010  01:37 PM ET

Please don't consider this a homer vote, just because I'm from Michigan. If anything I'm a jaded Michigan fan, that always counts on his team to choke, but I believe IU's defense will be more porous than Michigan's. Close game, high scoring, but UofM on top

By the way, speaking of being a jaded fan, can you believe I'm also a Lions, and Raiders fan.....any wonder I'm jaded (see end of Raider game yesterday, LOL)

September 27, 2010  01:47 PM ET
QUOTE(#10):

Please don't consider this a homer vote, just because I'm from Michigan. If anything I'm a jaded Michigan fan, that always counts on his team to choke, but I believe IU's defense will be more porous than Michigan's. Close game, high scoring, but UofM on topBy the way, speaking of being a jaded fan, can you believe I'm also a Lions, and Raiders fan.....any wonder I'm jaded (see end of Raider game yesterday, LOL)

I'm sure Rude would echo - reasonable comments with any vote are appreciated.

September 27, 2010  01:53 PM ET
QUOTE(#11):

I'm sure Rude would echo - reasonable comments with any vote are appreciated.

Yup

I just wish everyone would post their reasoning for voting

September 27, 2010  01:55 PM ET
QUOTE(#12):

YupI just wish everyone would post their reasoning for voting

I don't like Rude. Vote right.

September 27, 2010  02:05 PM ET

Can't see IUs defense stopping any Big Ten team, except maybe Illinois. But then Illinois usually stops themselves on offense.

September 27, 2010  02:47 PM ET

Indiana put those pretty numbers up against who again?.. Oh thats right Towson, Western Kentucky and Akron... Michigan is overrated, but they can still beat the "mighty" Hoosiers.

September 27, 2010  04:59 PM ET

"There's a reason that IU stocks up on cream-puffs in the out-of-conference schedule." Yup, and Michigan stocks up on powerhouses like UMass, Bowling Green, and a weak Notre Dame. Think before you type.

September 27, 2010  05:00 PM ET

Good point by right regarding strenght of schedule. Michigans defense is going to be what decides this game, if they can at least stop a few drives the wolverines will get the W, because the offense is going to run wild. No vote yet, although I don't find it all that realistic for Indiana to win, I also didn't find it all that realistic that my team only beat Umass by 5.

September 27, 2010  05:07 PM ET

I wish I had this Rude....

September 27, 2010  05:28 PM ET
QUOTE(#16):

"There's a reason that IU stocks up on cream-puffs in the out-of-conference schedule." Yup, and Michigan stocks up on powerhouses like UMass, Bowling Green, and a weak Notre Dame. Think before you type.

The point being Michigan expects to win enough in conference to make a bowl game. There are different sets of expectations and the programs plan accordingly. While not stellar, UMs non confirm schedule is much tougher than IUs.

 
September 27, 2010  05:29 PM ET

Conference. Stupid iPod autocomplete.

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