• 03/21/2011, 12:39PM ET

UFC 129 Predictions

CuntryBlumpkin (305-247-64) vs Michael P Hunt (1-4-0)

Main Card only

At least two differences. Method of victory can be a change.

GSP vs Jake Shields

GSP all day. Shields only has wrestling, and you can't convince me his wrestling is better than GSP's. GSP by unanimous decision.

Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick

This will be a closer fight than most think, but Aldo eventually gets the TKO win in the third. Aldo is unstoppable right now. His Muay Thai is up there with the best in MMA, he has great BJJ. Aldo remains champ.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Jason Brilz

Close fight, but I have to give Maty the decision. Both a good wrestlers, but if this fight stays standing, which I think Maty can do, Maty has a significant edge IMO. Both will get taken down a few times, but Maty picks Brilz apart standing.

Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture

Randy is just too old. Machida may be in a slump, but he's still top 5 LHW in UFC. Randy will have trouble taking Machida down, and Randy's standup game isn't that great. Machida wins 2nd round TKO.

Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson

I have Ben Henderson with a third round choke. Henderson has never been TKO'd and hasn't been submitted since 2007. MTC no room

Good luck.


Shields via fourth round submission. GSP is the sexy pick since he hasn't lost in forever - but I'm backing the underdog all day. To say Shields ONLY has wrestling misses the boat AND the ocean entirely. Shields has GREAT BJJ and his standup is good (not great, but it's good). AND Shields has a chin, as taking one of Hendo's right hands and surviving proves.

ALDO vs Hominick

Can't argue with anything you've said here...

Matyushenko vs Brilz

I'd like to pick Matty by TKO but Brilz is one tough SOB, so again I have to agree with you.

Lyoto versus Randy

Here's where I lose whatever votes I still have after picking Shields to beat GSP. I realize Lyoto is a HEAVY favourite, but in truth, Lyoto has looked mediocre to terrible in his last three fights (I was there for the snoozefest in Detroit). And whenever you want to count Randy out, which has been MANY times in his career, he comes up with a HUGE effort. AND Randy is king of the gameplans, and in the clinch, he'll bust up Lyoto's face and break the Karate Kid's Will. Randy by decision.

I agree with Henderson v Bocek as well.

Good luck.

Warning- I am pretty buzzed

Shields submittng GSP would make me take away eveything negative I have ever said about Jake Shields.

You know how many times GSP has been submitted?

Once and that was 7 years ago in the first Matt Hughes fight.

I honestly don't see a path that Shields can beat GSP with. GSP has some of the best wrestling in all of MMA with a black belt in BJJ to go with it, and if he has trouble taking Shields down, GSP has a big advantage standing up.

Shields does have great wrestling, but IMO if GSP can outwrestle Fitch and Kos, he can outwrestle Shields.

The wy I see this fight happening is both fighters have trouble taking the other down, and GSP picks Shields apart standing.

This will be one of the first times Shields hasn't had a wrestling advantage, and I don't think he'll know what to do when GSP keeps the takedown from happening.

Shields has a small chance, bvut the best chance against GSP is a puncher's chance, and Shields doesn't even have that.

GSP wins easily via decision.

Machida over Randy next.

First off, I'm not saying it's going to be easy for Shields. GSP is one of the most well rounded fighters in all of MMA. The fact that his standup is much improved just proved that whoever beats GSP is going to have to have a full toolbox of tools. And Shields does.

You have to go all the way back to Shields' fight against Hendo to see the last time that Shields didn't have an advantage in the wrestling department. Shields was MORE than able to hold his own against Hendo - who has been honing his wrestling a "little" longer than GSP. Shields was fine in the clinch against Hendo, and he was able to control the match when it went to the ground.

GSP likes to neutralize the biggest strength of his opponent. He's said it himself. The problem is, GSP has never faced a fighter as well rounded AND big as Shields. Shields brings very good wrestling, top shelf BJJ and good (not great, but good) standup that he's honed in working with Nick Diaz, king of the compton jab.

Shields will hold his own with GSP on the feet, and when it does go to the ground, which it will, Shields will move from sub attempt to sub attempt until he forces GSP to tap. You read it here first.

If the Couture-Machida fight was 5 years ago, I would agree with you.

But this is 2007, and Randy is pushing 50.

Machida will have the advantage standing and a big speed advantage. The only way Randy can win this fight is if he manages to take Machida to the groun, which isn't easy to do.

Randy has won 3 fights in a row, but one was a qestionable decision over Brandon Vera, a TKO over Mark Colman who is just as old as Randy and in much worse shape, and a choke out of James Tony, a 42 year old professional boxr making his MMA debut.

Somehing ells me that Randy won't be ready for this big of a step up in competition.

Randy can beat the mid to lower level LHWs, but Machida is still near the top.

You can't count Randy out, but Machida is too much for him at this point. Mchida is pretty much fighting for his job, so the intensity and otivation will be in Machida's favor as well.

Personally, I think Mahda is a tool and I don't like him, but I think he ins he fight

I hope I'm wrong though.

Forfeited Turn

Comment #1 has been removed
March 21, 2011  12:54 PM ET

Shogun got embarrassed, to say the least

March 21, 2011  12:57 PM ET

Shogun got embarrassed, to say the least

He'll be back. He started off slow after his last knee injury.

I haven't watched the fights yet, don't say anything else please. I have them recorded at home.

March 21, 2011  12:58 PM ET

Shogun got embarrassed, to say the least

And it was because I changed my avatar. I had a bad feeling about that.

Comment #5 has been removed
March 21, 2011  01:25 PM ET

Shields and Randy? What? You better bring the args, because those two picks are crazy.

I am a firm believer of not counting Randy out. But I think he is gonna have a hard time with clinching Machida against the fence. He's got a great chance but Machida has a lot to fight for. And I give Shields a pretty good chance against GSP but I think Frenchy is gonna take this one. And I like Brilz with a UD against the Janitor. Aldo is obvious and Henderson takes out Bocek with a UD.

Comment #7 has been removed
March 21, 2011  02:28 PM ET

Machida will be way too fast for Couture.

Hey Jim I told ya Jones was gonna win that one. He destroyed Shogun.

March 21, 2011  02:29 PM ET

Hey Jim I told ya Jones was gonna win that one. He destroyed Shogun.

Hush, I haven't watched the fights yet.

Comment #10 has been removed
March 21, 2011  02:54 PM ET

My Bad Bandit. You knew the outcome already though right?

Comment #12 has been removed
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Comment #14 has been removed
March 21, 2011  05:17 PM ET

Kudos for a couple of wild picks - Shields and Randy - the 2 biggest underdogs on the card. You're going to very impressive 2nd and 3rg args to show how a +250 and a +300 fighter are going to come through.

March 21, 2011  05:18 PM ET

going to *need a very impressive

Comment #17 has been removed
March 21, 2011  06:38 PM ET

Well, Shields is a better grappler than GSP, although I'm not sure how he gets it to the ground. You can never count Randy out, but I can't see him winning.

Yeah, Jakes' "American" Jiu-Jitsu or whatever he calls it is his main strength - and it's what he used to beat Hendo. He's a legit opponent - and the toughest test for GSP at WW bar none. He's got plenty of 5 round experience, too. Still, I can't remember the last time I've seen somebody execute their gameplan on GSP.

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