- 06/24/2011, 03:31PM ET
Hip Hip Jorge said 06/24, 03:40 PM
I say YES
He already has 1000 strikeout in the first 5 years in the major league and I think the speed and off speed that he has should be enough for him to get in the top 10 of all time.
He already averages 7.3 strikeout per outing which is ridiculous. All he need is to get to 462 games started by the end of his career to be able to pass Greg Maddux as number 10 of all time.
To put how many starts that is into perspective. Halladay 33 already has 362 starts and will be able to easily get 100 more in 4 years. I think if Timmy can avoid injury then he should be able to do it.
I mean Maddux who is in 10th has 750+ starts in his career to get to the number but Tim only needs about 462 with the average he is going. I know he is in his prime and will slow down but he should still be able to make the list.
He also has showed that he is good at avoiding injury and has not been out for a serious injury his whole career. If he shows that he is durable over the next 2 years. I think there is no question asked that he will be 8 or 9 all time when it is said and done
tdbubba15 said 06/24, 04:03 PM
It cant be as easy as "all he needs to do is get another 462 games started by the end of his career"
He's also not gonna avg 7.3 K's a game for the rest of his career.
Not to mention he has also got to stay healthy.
I'm gonna say NO!
Would I love to see it? Sure I would but you just can't believe he will based on his per game avg right now. As he gets older he'll have to rely on other ways to get guys out.
Hip Hip Jorge said 06/24, 04:12 PM
I said it in my argument that he probably would not keep up the average, I know that he will not be able to do it in that many games. I was just putting it into perspective.
He should have 154 total games by the end of this season. By next 5 season, lets say he misses 15 starts he will still have over 300 starts and only be 32. Say he missed 45 the next 5 years because of injury or something else near 462 and still will have only about 2 years left.
I also do not think with his durability that he will miss 60 games over the season. I think that he will be about to get to 500 to 550 games till he is about 40. You know if he is close to the record and not there by 40 he will still play.
I think that you can still say that he will keep up a good strikeout average though. I mean over 4 full years as a starter he is going to have 200+ K's every season. I do not think that he will substantial drop off.
He is a good kid that stays out of trouble which is another reason that he should be able to reach the record. I say that he will be in his prime for 3-4 more years with 200 K's getting him to near 2000 and then over 10 years should be able to get 1000 more.
tdbubba15 said 06/25, 08:04 AM
I can't think of Many pitchers that throughout their 1st ten years in the league have only missed 15 starts. I'm sure their are plenty out their but in this day in age of the sport players are considered investments and are being put on the DL more and more over minor injuries.
Cain is a young kid right now and he's rolling along nice and easy right now, but age catches up to everyone, and it affects different people in different ways.
Some pitchers have long careers cause they can rely on many different ways to get batters out. And some pitchers just fizzle out out of nowhere.
The Odds are stacked against him and it's to far down the road to tell the future of this kid and to know how long he can pitch for with the same authority velocity he has now.
All the guys in the top 10 have pitched for a lot of years. A LOT!
Randy Johnson pitched 22 years, Nolan Ryan 27 years, Roger Clemens 24 years, Steve Carlton 24 years, Bert Blyleven 22 years, Tom Seaver 20 years, Don Sutton 23 years, Gaylord Perry 22 years, Walter Johnson 22 years, and Greg Maddox 23 years.
Now think of all the other great pitchers and how long they played for and yet they aren't in the top 10.
Hip Hip Jorge said 06/25, 08:51 AM
Well right now you are just predicting the he will age and wear out. So far, even as he is going slowly out of his prime from years ago, he still get strikeouts and he is durable.
I do not think that injury will be the thing that catches up to Lincecum. He may lose strikeout per year but you forgot to look at my stat last argument.
2012: 1380 because we know he will not be out of his prime by next year
2013: 1600 this is when, at the age of 29 he will start cooling down
Okay, so at 29 he may be out of his prime and stop collecting amazing numbers but then over the next 10 years he would only need 1732 strikeout more in 10 years. That would mean 170 K's per year which Lincecum should be able to accomplish.
If not, he will be very close to the record and will do the Randy Johnson and skip around teams to make sure that his stats are good enough for the record books.
I think that he will slow down but he shows no signs of all out stopping which will put him over the top
tdbubba15 said 06/26, 07:04 AM
You don't predict wear n tear on an athlete. It just bound to happen. Some sooner then others. And some just drop right off the face of the planet.
Lets look at some:
Pedro Martinez had a 5 year span with 1375 K's in his Prime and the he slowly dropped off finished with 3154 and only 13th on the list.
Curt Schilling: Led the league in K's twice had 3 seasons over 300 k's (Tims highest is what? 265?) and another season at 293. Yet he only finished with 3116 15th all time.
Johan Santana: He also lead the league in k's 3 times in a row with similar #'s to Lincecum and now look at him.
Thats 3 recent and good cases on why it's a strong arguement he wont break into the top 10.
Wait hold on a sec What about in a case such as you have a player 2 years younger then Tim and he's already 140 k's ahead of Tim. That would be Felix Hernandez. By your arguements sake you'd have to consider him for a top 10 all time thus making it that much harder for Lincecum himself to break the top 10.
Look I wish Tim a long great career but you just have to be honest and say the odds are stacked against him.
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