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  • 07/17/2011, 08:17PM ET

The 49ers will not win the NFC West this coming season

DJRoxalot (1085-669-126) vs (KMac) Lame Sauce (49-53-7)
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In comments of OM's TD you said the 49ers will win the West. I say they will not.

The Rams are going to be a lot better in my opinion.

They added an excellent WR through the draft in Austin Pettis. He is 6-2 and 209 pounds and is a very good route runner. He is a good blocker and is not afraid to make plays across the middle of the field.

With a healthy Donnie Avery returning they should have 2 excellent WR's to go with breakout player Danny Amendola (85 catches). Amendola benefitted most from Avery's injury and he should give them a nice trio. Not to mention Brandon Gibson who caught 53 passes.

Robert Quinn was a nice pick at DE even if it was not a weakness. Chris Long and James Hall are solid but injuries occur and it is never a bad thing to have depth. on the defensive line. Spags had scary depth on the DL when he was in New York and this really was a solid addition considering they were picking 14th.

Bradford's continued development will be key and is the big reason I think they win the Wild Wild West.

BRING IT!!!!!

More to come.


Wild Wild West, I think not. The winner of this division will be lucky to win 9 games, but I think the 49ers will pull it out.

Why?

Well, I know DJ loves stats, so I looked some up and found that these two teams are extremely similar.

Offense PPG

Niners- 19.1
Rams- 18.1

Defense PPG

Niners- 21.6
Rams- 20.5

So team stats all around are a wash so I looked at the quarterbacks. I'm sure it comes to no surprise that Bradford will be the better quarterback, but Alex Smith was no slouch last year. In fact, his stats line up pretty good with Bradford except for total yards.

Smith- 11 Games/2370 YDS/59.6 Pct/14TD's/10 Int's/215.5 YPG/25 Sacks

Bradford- 16 Games/3512 Yds/60 Pct/18 TD's/15 Int's/219.5 YPG/34 Sacks

Yes, Bradford will develop into one of the leagues better qb's, but what about Smith? If Jim Harbaugh knows anything, it's quarterbacks, and if he see's potential in Smith still, then I believe him. The work that Harbaugh has done with QB's is amazing, and I'm excited to see him work with Smith. Let's not forget that Smith still has better offensive weapons than Bradford.

Gore/Davis/Crabtree stats to come.

GL


Stats? That's it? I am highly disappointed. You could have done better.

LOL.

The Rams made enough improvements for me to believe they can win 3 more games and go 10-6. And I think that is enough for them to win this division obviously. By a couple games since I think the 2nd best team will go 8-8.

Smith? Seriously? You missed it? San Francisco picked Colin Kaepernick after trading up in the second round of the NFL draft. And I know the 49ers made a 1 year offer to Smith but I think it only takes 6-7 games before they end uop starting the rookie.

And I do not think Kaepernick will have the type of rookie success Bradford had.

Even if they stick to a conservative gameplan of feeding the ball to Gore and have him dump the ball off to Gore a lot.

The 49ers offensive line allowed 44 sacks, 10 more than the Rams. And having a 2nd season I think Bradford can lower that to around 18-20 since he is now comfortable as a pro. He has had a season to get adjusted and I think he plays even better this year.


Stats stats and more stats!!!

Yes the 49ers offensive line allowed 44 sacks. Let's look a little deeper at those sacks though...

In 11 games, Alex Smith was sacked 25 times...

In 6 games, Troy Smith was sacked 18 times...

Why is that? Because Troy Smith thought he was like Big Ben and could hold on to the ball and run around trying to create plays out of nothing. Unfortunately, he wasn't Big Ben and got sacked a whopping 18 times in only 6 games.

Let's also not forget 2 key players on that line were rookies...

Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis were both first round picks in 2010 and started the season on the offensive line. They also played pretty darned good for rookies last year too. The line will be much better this year.

Ok I know I promised some more stats so here we go...

You talked about Bradford's "weapons"... Well DJ, they don't compare to the Niners weapons...

Vernon Davis- 914 yds/7 TD's
Michael Crabtree- 741 yds/6 TD's
Josh Morgan- 698/2 TD's

All better than anyone in St. Louis even if Avery stays healthy... and that's a big if.


If the 49ers had a QB like Bradford? Those "weapons" might be a lot better off. But they don't. They have a player who has never lived up to expectations in Smith and a rookie who might be good down the road....But not in his first season.

Jackson had 1,624 yards of total offense (rushing and receiving) and is a lot healthier than Frank Gore.

Crabree, 55 catches, 741 yards, 13.5 ypc with 6 TD's
Brandon Gibson had 53 catches for 620 yards, 11.7ypc with 2 TD's.

Crabtree is overrated. I think Pettis can exceed Crabtree's stats in his rookie season with Bradford throwing him the ball.

The Rams were not exactly scrubs last season on defense.

19th in ypg allowed

Rams were 19th in passing ypg allowed

Rams were 17th in rushing ypg allowed

Most importantly? Rams were 12th in scoring defense

The Rams will win West again because they will be better offensively. A healthy Avery and rookie Pettis gives Bradford 4 nice WR's to choose from when they go to multiple WR sets.

The 49ers do not have that kind of depth. Morgan?

The Rams defense will improve with adding Quinn. They will pressure the passer much like the Lions.

Good TD and always fun.

July 17, 2011  08:41 PM ET

to have depth on the defensive line.

July 17, 2011  08:51 PM ET

It doesn't take much to win the NFC West, in fact any team can claim the worse Division in the NFL.

July 17, 2011  08:51 PM ET

Not a bad arg.

Comment #4 has been removed
July 17, 2011  10:42 PM ET

"2 excellent receivers"

Average at best. Someone has to catch the balls, so being the leading receiver doesn't make him a superstar.

Also, the learning curve for WRs is steep. The physicality of the game usually knocks rookies off of their game for at least the first year. This is even more relavent when you consider Pettis played at Boise and against terrible secondaries.

July 17, 2011  10:46 PM ET
QUOTE(#5):

"2 excellent receivers"Average at best. Someone has to catch the balls, so being the leading receiver doesn't make him a superstar. Also, the learning curve for WRs is steep. The physicality of the game usually knocks rookies off of their game for at least the first year. This is even more relavent when you consider Pettis played at Boise and against terrible secondaries.

Okay Mr Know it all.

July 17, 2011  10:48 PM ET
QUOTE(#6):

Okay Mr Know it all.

We should TD something NFL related. It would get nasty.

July 17, 2011  10:56 PM ET
QUOTE(#5):

"2 excellent receivers"Average at best. Someone has to catch the balls, so being the leading receiver doesn't make him a superstar. Also, the learning curve for WRs is steep. The physicality of the game usually knocks rookies off of their game for at least the first year. This is even more relavent when you consider Pettis played at Boise and against terrible secondaries.

Pettis performed well when playing against non conference schools.

#10 Va Tech, 6 catches for 73 yards with 2 TD's

#24 Oregon State, 4 catches, 72 yards with a TD

Not to mention vs

#19 Nevada, 5 catches for 65 yards

#19 Utah, 12 catches for 147 yards with a TD

Boise State ran the ball more this season (485 rush attempts to 424 pass attempts) plus Pettis had another talented WR to share the ball with in Titus Young.

July 17, 2011  10:59 PM ET

Time to watch Fox. Be back around 10pm my time.

July 17, 2011  11:04 PM ET
QUOTE(#8):

Pettis performed well when playing against non conference schools.#10 Va Tech, 6 catches for 73 yards with 2 TD's#24 Oregon State, 4 catches, 72 yards with a TDNot to mention vs#19 Nevada, 5 catches for 65 yards#19 Utah, 12 catches for 147 yards with a TD Boise State ran the ball more this season (485 rush attempts to 424 pass attempts) plus Pettis had another talented WR to share the ball with in Titus Young.

A good receiver with a good receiver gets each of them single coverage. A good receiver with a bad receiver gets the good receiver double covered. The logic of 'sharing the ball' has never really worked. It more depends on if you get favorable coverage assigned to you and if you have a great QB.

July 17, 2011  11:13 PM ET

Niners are in transition mode. I think they'll win the NFC West next year rather than this.

July 17, 2011  11:19 PM ET
QUOTE(#11):

Niners are in transition mode. I think they'll win the NFC West next year rather than this.

The Niners have been in "transition mode" for 15+ years.

July 18, 2011  12:29 AM ET

Niners have the better team in that weak division. Hands down

July 18, 2011  02:21 AM ET
QUOTE(#13):

Hands down

Wrong. They thought the same thing last year.

July 18, 2011  02:22 AM ET
QUOTE(#10):

A good receiver with a good receiver gets each of them single coverage. A good receiver with a bad receiver gets the good receiver double covered. The logic of 'sharing the ball' has never really worked. It more depends on if you get favorable coverage assigned to you and if you have a great QB.

He has a better QB in St. Louis than he did with Boise State.

July 18, 2011  02:44 AM ET

You mean it's actually debatable that St. Louis is the best team in the NFC West?

(And yes, I realize that Seattle "won" the division last year.)

That said, FA could change that division (one with no real separation between teams) very quickly.

July 18, 2011  03:27 AM ET

I know you love stats DJ so I'm gonna bust out some stats.

July 18, 2011  03:35 AM ET
QUOTE(#17):

I know you love stats DJ so I'm gonna bust out some stats.

Do it.

Comment #19 has been removed
 
July 18, 2011  05:33 AM ET
QUOTE(#19):

This division sucks.Nobody's going to win the division, one team just isn't going to lose it as bad as the other three.

That's funny...in my earlier post where I said Seattle "won" the division last year, my first instinct was to write that they "lost it, less".

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