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  • 09/06/2011, 12:29PM ET

Despite Your Belief, Johnny Cueto Will Not Win The Cy Young Award In 2011

Slinkton Jr. (1-1-0) vs Rudedog: Believe The Hype (370-317-81)
47
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47
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In three seperate TDs, you've stumped for Johnny Cueto to win the NL Cy Young this year.

http://www.fannation.com/throwdowns/show/614301-johnny-cuetto-is-the-nl-cy-youn g-at-this-point?category_id=17

http://www.fannation.com/throwdowns/show/620821-nl-cy-young?category_id=17

http://www.fannation.com/throwdowns/show/627161-nl-cy-young-winner?category_id= 17

It's time to put an end to this once and for all. Johnny Queto is having a nice season - or, a nice 70% or so of a season. He leads the NL in ERA, but gets handily beaten in every other major statistic by at least a handful of pitchers.

Cueto will not win the NL Cy Young Award this year.


Solid first argument there.

You mentioned he's leading the NL in ERA, but let me give you the stats in whole. However, you claim he gets beat handily in all other categories, so let's look at the stats of the other Cy Young favorites, Kershaw and Halladay.


JC - 2.29 ERA, 145.1 IP, 170 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 6.1 K/9
CK - 2.45 ERA, 205.2 IP, 151 ERA+, 1.02 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 9.7 K/9
RH - 2.49 ERA, 202.2 IP, 156 ERA+, 1.05 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 8.7 K/9

Not only does Cueto hang in there with all 2 others, he wins a couple categories himself. And since 2000, only Pedro Martinez had a lower ERA and won the Cy Young award.

Cueto, however, is a prisoner of the market he plays in and the fact that his team routinely blows his games. In games he pitches in, the Reds are 15-7, which is a far more accurate account of how Cueto has pitched in. Instead, Cueto is just 9-5 in 22 games.

You also claim Cueto gets beat by a handful of pitchers in each category.

1st in ERA
1st in ERA+
2nd in H/9
4th in CG
4th in HR/9

I'll talk about the innings pitched situation next argument


You've made a solid argument detailing how Cueto has been a great pitcher this season, and I don't disagree. This TD isn't about that, though, it's about if he'll win the NL Cy Young Award.

Over the last ten years, the average IP for SPs winning the CY is 235. Only one starter, Clemens in '04, won the CY with less than 220 IP, and he had 214.

Cueto has 145.1 IP this year in 22 GS, averaging 6.2 IP/GS. He'll likely get four more starts which would give him another 26.2 IP for a total of 172. That's 27% fewer IP than the average SP CY winner over the last decade.

Even if he threw complete games from here on out, he'd finish the season with 181.1 IP - that's simply not enough to take the CY.

Last year in the AL, Clay Buchholz had the 2nd best ERA (0.06 higher than Hernandez) and the best ERA+ (10 points higher than Hernandez). He finished sixth in the CY voting without a single first-place vote. Is that because he's a "prisoner of the market he plays in?" No, it's not. It's because he only pitched 173 innings.

Like Buchholz last year, Cueto is having a great year, but missing the first 20% of the Reds' season will preclude him from winning the CY.


Here's the thing about the innings pitched issue that I just don't understand.

Cueto was injured to start the year. It's not like he's going out there and pitching 5 innings a game, not giving his team anything more, then hoping for the best.

You showed it yourself. He pitches 6.2 innings a game. For comparisons sake, Halladay only pitches 7.2 innings and Kershaw at 7.0. He's went into the the 7 inning or later 13 times in his 22 starts. And he's thrown 100+ pitches in all but 7 of his starts and only once threw under 80.

You can't simply look at Cueto's IP stat and make assumptions. It's like nothing that has happened before. No one has missed a month of the season and had the season he's had. All you're doing is simply looking at the IP stat and applying it to everyone else before him. He has no comparison.

Cueto has been the best pitcher in the game this year. Since he's been healthy and pitching, no one has been on his level. He's pitched great, has the lowest ERA, and all his stats are comparable to Kershaw's and Halladay's.

He IS the NL Cy Young


Some of Cueto???s #???s are similar to Kershaw & Halladay. If Cueto???s #???s were head-and-shoulders better than his competition, there would be the slim possibility that the Writers Assoc would overlook the fact that he has 25% fewer IP.

There are 3 pitchers with ERA???s within .13 of Cueto, and Kershaw???s only .09 back. Consider that all 3 of those have at least 50 more IP than Cueto, and he???s not in the CY conversation.

Here???s what the 3 front-runners and Cueto have done since August 1st:

Halladay ??? 6GS ??? 40.1IP ??? 43K ??? 2.68ERA
Kershaw ??? 7GS ??? 53.1IP ??? 49K ??? 1.69ERA
Lee ??? 6GS ??? 48.2IP ??? 45K ??? 0.37ERA
Cueto ??? 7GS ??? 42.2IP ??? 35K ??? 4.01ERA

Cueto hasn???t been helping his case down the stretch. Since the end of July, his ERA has risen by 0.64 while the other three, particularly Lee, have really turned it on. Cueto has been coughing up the only advantage he has.

At the end of the day, though, as long as Cueto doesn???t have a huge advantage in ERA, the rest of his stats are of no consequence. It doesn???t matter if he was on the DL for a month, or if he pitched the 1st inning of every Reds game, the fact is, he only has 152.1IP and that???s not going to get him the CY.


Consider this whining if you want, but I'm not going to argue down 40 votes

You aren't a great TDer like you think/proclaim. You're do know what you're talking about, but you have all your T&R buds voting for you blindly, whether they realize it or not. I realize arguing for Cueto was an uphill battle, but your argument is no where near 40 votes better than mine.

All you did was invite all your T&R friends over here "just to comment" knowing damn well they'd end up voting for you in this TD. It's a clever ploy and you could probably go undefeated as long as you want, which is why this site is broken and may never be fixed.

Again, you're a knowledgable fan, but you also have tendency to be a douche, whether you think so or not. I know nothing about you and you know nothing about me, but if you want to go around bragging about this win like you did with your win over Yakov, be my guest. But know that it wasn't because you simply outargued me, but the fact you had more friends vote for you.

Enjoy your day and I hope we never cross paths again.

Comment #1 has been removed
Comment #2 has been removed
September 6, 2011  12:34 PM ET

He asked for it.

Comment #5 has been removed
Comment #6 has been removed
September 6, 2011  12:38 PM ET
QUOTE(#6):

I expect this to be a 1000+ comment TD.

Monday morning start, I probably won't put more than one argument up a day, I see this pushing two grand.

Comment #9 has been removed
Comment #10 has been removed
September 6, 2011  12:41 PM ET

Interesting...

Comment #12 has been removed
Comment #13 has been removed
September 6, 2011  12:42 PM ET
QUOTE:

he's a little ****, isn't he?!

Ha! That's seems to be the consensus.

Honestly, I had no idea who he was. I just like to talk baseball and I saw he had a TD talking about Cueto winning the Cy Young. I put up some comments roundly refuting that notion and, instead of trying to counter my points, he goes around to private groups calling me names.

A few people in those groups told me about it and said that, generally speaking, he's an fairly nice guy, but that he acts like a girl around here.

September 6, 2011  12:42 PM ET
QUOTE(#12):

ummm.....I hate to point out that it is Tuesday...

Ha!

That's awesome news!

September 6, 2011  12:43 PM ET
QUOTE(#11):

Interesting...

That's what I was gonna say. Good call UBP.

September 6, 2011  12:43 PM ET

I'm voting right, by the way.

September 6, 2011  12:43 PM ET
QUOTE(#14):

Ha! That's seems to be the consensus.Honestly, I had no idea who he was. I just like to talk baseball and I saw he had a TD talking about Cueto winning the Cy Young. I put up some comments roundly refuting that notion and, instead of trying to counter my points, he goes around to private groups calling me names.A few people in those groups told me about it and said that, generally speaking, he's an fairly nice guy, but that he acts like a girl around here.

I'd say Cueto is just another Jon Lieber.

September 6, 2011  12:44 PM ET
QUOTE(#12):

ummm.....I hate to point out that it is Tuesday...

IT IS? Awe s--h--!--t!

September 6, 2011  12:44 PM ET
QUOTE(#17):

I'm voting right, by the way.

This TD brought to you by Blue Ice Vodka.

September 6, 2011  12:51 PM ET
QUOTE(#18):

I'd say Cueto is just another Jon Lieber.

One thing for sure...niether of 'em are Ricky Vaughn.

 
September 6, 2011  12:54 PM ET

And Slinky wins. Again.

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