- 09/29/2011, 04:54PM ET
Argos. said 09/29, 04:54 PM
Who should win the NL Cy Young?
Sorry Kershaw, but it goes to Roy Halladay.
First, and most important, Clayton Kershaw got to play his home games in Dodgers Stadium (pitchers friendly park), and beat up against the terrible offences of the NL West.
Just look who Kershaw pitched against:
He pitched against the NL's worst offense (Giants) 6 times!
He pitched against the NL's 2nd worst offense (Padres) another 3 times.
In fact played top 10 offenses in baseball 12 times, compared to playing bottom 10 offences 15 times. A pretty even split. However, compare his numbers against top 10 teams versus bottom 10.
B10: 10-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 4.87 SO/BB, 5 HR, 111.1 IP
T10: 6-3, 3.14 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.52 SO/BB, 7 HR, 77.1 IP
A big drop-off for Kershaw.
Halladay too has played more bottom 10 offenses (13) versus top 10 (8), but Halladay is more consistent. Both Kershaw & Halladay's average opponent ranks 17th in terms of offense. Here is Doc's breakdown:
B10: 7-2, 1.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 8.09 SO/BB, 3 HR, 97 IP
T10: 4-2, 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4.77 SO/BB, 2 HR, 67 IP
Halladay is much more consistent
To top it off, Halladay has a 2.20 FIP, to Kershaw's 2.42
OJ Simpson said 09/29, 09:20 PM
Halladay definitely deserves to win, but so does Kershaw.
I notice that out the gate you're saying that Halladay had tougher opponents. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that you are doing so, because Kershaw's numbers are better. So in an attempt to give some Halladay love, you're trying to say Kershaw "had it easy" this year. Let's look at those numbers:
Record: 21-5 (CK) to 19-6 (RH)
ERA: 2.28 (CK) to 2.35 (RH)
ERA+ : 163 (CK) to 164 (RH)
Opp. Avg: .207 (CK) to .239 (RH)
WHIP: 0.98 (CK) to 1.04 (RH)
Average Game score: 64.8 (CK) to 63.1 (RH)
K's : 248 (CK) to 220 (RH)
These are 7 major stats that voters look at. Some place more emphasis on others, but each of them is very important. As you can see, Kershaw wins in each of them except ERA+ which has a differential of just 1.
I think what might hurt Halladay, is that he comes from a team with such dominant pitching. Both Lee and Hamels were very strong all year. Heck, even Worley was. Kershaw was lights out for the Dodgers. They seemed to only win when he was on the bump, yet the Phillies won no matter who took the mound.
Argos. said 09/29, 10:47 PM
You fail to mention Halladay's league leading SO/BB ratio of 6.29, nearly 2 better than Kershaw. Or the fact Halladay once again leads the league in CG with 8 which is 3 more than Kershaw, or the fact Halladay walks less batters than anyone in baseball with only 1.3 BB/9.
However, nearly every stat you mention that Kershaw has the slightest lead in, is a factor of the terrible opposition and extremely friendly hitter park Kershaw pitches in, and beats up on.
Heck, just takeaway the 42 innings Kershaw pitched against Giants pathetic offense, and his stats are not all that impressive.
But first, Kershaw has a 1.18 ERA higher on the road! Dodger Stadium is a pitchers park, while Citizens Bank Park is a hitters park.
However, there are two stats in particular that factor in the ballpark and opponent. ERA+ factors out the ballparks, and Halladay has the advantage in the category.
The other stat that factors in the ballparks and opponents is FIP, and in that stat Halladay has a pretty big advantage of .24
Bonus stat for UH, cause I know how much he loves WAR. Halladay has a fWAR of 8.2 to Kershaw's 6.8, while Halladay has a rWAR of 7.4 to Kershaw's 6.9
OJ Simpson said 09/30, 02:06 PM
"You fail to mention Halladay's league leading SO/BB ratio of 6.29, nearly 2 better than Kershaw."
Which is nice, but how then does Halladay have a higher WHIP? Because he gives up more hits. So your argument is that Kershaw walks more people, mine is that Halladay gives up more hits. How do you decide what is better?
Well I suppose you'd look at WHIP and ERA right? Which Kershaw has better numbers in both.
Yes, you can also point out that Halladay has more complete games. But I can point out that Kershaw has more CG Shutouts.
You keep talking about SF and how Kershaw played them, which pads his stats. What you fail to mention is that:
Cain, Lincecum, Baumgarner and Vogelsong all rank in the top 11 for ERA, which means all those games Kershaw played against them were close and he could have lost all of them. When you go against stud pitchers, you need to perform. He managed 4 wins against those guys and their highest ERA is 3.21
When you go into a game expecting your team to get around 3 runs... that can put a lot of pressure on a guy. Kershaw performed.
Next, I'll explain how Lee is going to affect Roy's votes.
- Fantasy baseball Weekend Primer: Stream Axelrod, Colon
- Fantasy baseball Prospect Watch: Miller looks like an ace
- Fantasy baseball Stat Focus: Cabrera's wOBA proves dominance
- Fantasy baseball Trade Tips: It's time to sell Rickie Weeks
- Fantasy baseball Roundtable: Is Cardinals' pitching slowing?
- Awful Announcing
- Free Darko
- Pro Football Talk
- The Big Lead
- Joe Posnanski
- The Sporting Blog
- Big League Stew
- Bugs and Cranks
- Every day Should Be Saturday
- Mr. Irrelevant
- With Leather
- The Sports Hernia