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  • 10/10/2011, 04:27PM ET

NFL Tourney: JaMarcus Russell Re-do: Who do the Raiders take instead?

YankeesFan (89-63-11) vs Mitch Cumstien (29-10-5)
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In 2006, the season that earned the Raiders the number one pick which ultimately lead them to draft Russell in 2007, Oakland scored just 168 points. All season.

That's an average of just over 10 ppg. That's the 5th worst ppg for a team in the 16 game schedule over the course of an entire season.

With that said, it is clear that the Raiders needed to address the offensive side of the ball with their number 1 pick.

At the time, they didn't really have any great RBs or WRs, but they still got over 1000 yards from Justin Fargas on the ground the year Russell was drafted. And looking at the big picture, as that's what teams with the number 1 pick do as they try to build a competitive team down the road, they now have a top RB in Darren McFadden.

Since there were no other great QBs in the draft that year, I'm going the WR route, and saying the Raiders should have taken Calvin Johnson with the 1st pick in 2007.

They are set at RB, but less so at WR. McFadden leads the Raiders in receptions this year, but add a guy like Calvin Johnson, and they could have one of the most feared offenses in the league.

Much more to come, good luck Sweetness.


How wonderful it is to have hindsight. I'm sure the Raiders organization wishes it had the power to be in the position we find ourselves today, and redo this draft, however as they do not, I will take the honor of doing so for them.

The 2007 Draft was packed with talent, unfortunately that talent wasn't a certain QB out of LSU.

You are absolutely correct, OAK needed to address the offensive side of the ball, the problem was the way Big Al approached his draft philosophy. Had Al stepped outside of his norm, and drafted Adrian Peterson, the Raiders would have started their turn around much sooner.

You mention that they still got 1k yds from Fargas that year, but if you look only slightly deeper, you will see that was Fargas' Only year over 1k in his career.

1009 yds 4TDs or 1341yds 12TDs?

That is the difference between Fargas' career year and rookie Peterson. I don't find it necessary to recount the difference in the years following where AP became a top back in the NFL and Fargas fell off the planet.

Sure WR was a need, and sure Magatron was the best in that draft, but since we are discussing the 07' draft only, we can't assume future year's drafts.


Sure we can't assume the exact outcome of future year drafts, but without taking a star QB in the 2007 draft (none were available, so this wasn't really an option), it's safe to assume the Raiders would be picking towards the top once again in 2008, regardless of who they picked.

And though we couldn't have known for sure who the Raiders were going to get in the '08 draft, even in 2007, it was obvious the RB class was much deeper than the WR. 5 RBs were taken in the 1st round in '08, as well as Jamaal Charles in the 3rd round, compared to 0 WRs taken in the first round.

Anyway, I'm getting off track, but my point is that while both Megatron and AP are arguably the best at their positions, RB would be an easier whole for the Raiders to fill in future drafts.

And as for Fargas, they only needed one season out of him, as they got immediate production from McFadden the very next year.

McFadden and AP have the same career YPC, but DMF is the better receiver, and a more surehanded RB.

My point here is that AP isn't too huge of an upgrade over what they have now, and that it's a pass-happy league, so the elite WRs are more valuable than the elite RBs.


Even if they had drafted CJ that changes every draft after, so using DMF as their running back is not valid. who says they are in the #4 spot in 08 had they got CJ? and if they had would they not be in the market for that QB position that wasn't filled in 07? All I am saying is that you can't take in to account future picks, because our choices here could have changed every pick after. Very Butterfly Effect I know, but it stands true.

That said Let's simply compare these two players against each other, as this is really the only way you can approach it.

Start with the awards:

AP - Pro Bowl every year since draft (including ROY) 2 time 1st team
CJ - Pro Bowl once, no all pro, no ROY

Yes it is hard to compare to dissimilar positions, but it cannot be argued the level of contributions these players have had.

Over the last 4 years AP has accounted for 31.8% of total offense, and 35% of total scoring
CJ? 22.1% total offense, and 27.9% of scoring (both exclude kicking)

Not counting future drafts, AP has had FAR more impact on his team than CJ has on his. Yes it's a passing league, but that is far more QB driven than WR.

Next, compare to position peers, and close.


Awards are very subjective, first of all. But secondly, and more importantly, those awards were won on their current teams, in their current situations. There is no saying how many pro bowls either one would have made as a member of the Raiders.

The NFL, as I said last argument, is a passing league. I agree with what you said, it's more to do with the QB, not WR. But that means teams, generally, will pass a lot more than run. And even when they do run, it's not a guarantee it goes to the lead back, many teams go 2 or even 3 deep at RB.

CJ, right now, is a more valuable WR than AP is a RB. Megatron has nearly twice as many TDs as anyone else in the NFL (9 vs. 5, the 2nd highest TD total, held by 2 people, otherwise everyone else in the league has less than half CJ's TDs), and he's also averaging over 80 YPG.

AP is 2nd in the league in yards (only behind DMF!), but in terms of YPC, he's tied for 15th. He showed significant improvement last year, but AP has historically had fumble issues.

This isn't to say he's not an elite RB, but CJ is more dominant at his position (a more valuable position in the NFL today) than AP is at his.


Yes the awards are subjective, but then so too are the stats that you have listed for CJ on his current team Not Oakland! The only way we can reasonably debate is based off of what they have done on the teams that drafted them respectively.

I find it strange that you point out that It is not guaranteed that the ball goes to the lead back, when no team lines up in a 1 WR set every down. Matter of fact a lead back is more likely to get a higher share of touches than a #1 WR.

As it is we can only use stats from their current teams to support our arguments, as neither was drafted by Oak! That said lets compare against their position peers.

CJ in his 4 yr career has finished top 10 in:
Rec 0
RecYds 2 (5th '08, 9th '10)
RecTDs 2 (1st '08, 2nd '10)

AP in the same time finished top 10 in:
RushYds 4 (2nd, 1st, 5th 6th)
Yds from scrimmage 4 (4th, 1st, 3rd, 8th)
RushTDs 4 (2nd, 8th, 1st, 4th)

Even among peer groups AP measures better than CJ, finishing top 10 in every major category every year since draft.

Bottom line, AP has more total impact on his team's success than CJ, much the same as it would have been had either been drafted by Oakland! Great TD!

October 10, 2011  04:27 PM ET

I'll get my first argument up very soon, just wanted to get this on the board.

Comment #2 has been removed
October 10, 2011  04:29 PM ET

Looking forward to this.

October 10, 2011  04:32 PM ET

As far as I can see there really are only two ways this can go, and both are very arguable...

October 10, 2011  04:37 PM ET

I love this topic. A ton of good players, Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson, AP, Darrelle Revis, Patrick Willis, Dwayne Bowe, Jon Beason, Ryan Kalil, Lamar Woodley, Sidney Rice, Leron McClain.

Definitley the best draft of the 2000's, and the Raiders took Russell.

Hahaha

October 10, 2011  04:37 PM ET

Calvin Johnson.

October 10, 2011  04:37 PM ET

What did the Pats do with the 1st we traded for Seymour? Not much.

October 10, 2011  04:39 PM ET

At the time, I wanted Adrian Peterson.

October 10, 2011  04:39 PM ET

I was not happy with the pick of Russell.

October 10, 2011  04:39 PM ET

But even with that, I can only see 5 of those players being argued and I think its going to be a certain 2. Will post after both picks are made.

October 10, 2011  04:39 PM ET
QUOTE(#7):

What did the Pats do with the 1st we traded for Seymour? Not much.

Ha

October 10, 2011  04:41 PM ET
QUOTE(#7):

What did the Pats do with the 1st we traded for Seymour? Not much.

They took Left Tackle Nate Solder out of Colorado. 6'7" and freakishly athletic, he's just not strong enough yet, but when he fills in he should be a very solid tackle.

Overall, it was a good trade for the Pats. We couldn't afford Seymour at the end of that year, and got a very good player for him.

October 10, 2011  04:41 PM ET
QUOTE(#11):

Ha

It worked out a lot better for the Raiders. The Pats have had issues filling Seymour's spot since he left. There defense has gotten worse and worse.

October 10, 2011  04:41 PM ET
QUOTE(#12):

They took Left Tackle Nate Solder out of Colorado. 6'7" and freakishly athletic, he's just not strong enough yet, but when he fills in he should be a very solid tackle.Overall, it was a good trade for the Pats. We couldn't afford Seymour at the end of that year, and got a very good player for him.

That said, the Pats defense has not been the same since.

October 10, 2011  04:43 PM ET
QUOTE(#13):

It worked out a lot better for the Raiders. The Pats have had issues filling Seymour's spot since he left. There defense has gotten worse and worse.

True, but you have to see why it worked out for NE.

The Pats were going to lose him anyway, to free agency. He was going to be too expensive.

They made a great move to get a first rounder that at the time looked like it could be top 10. Props to the Raiders for making it fall to 17. But the Pats still got a potential franchise tackle out of the deal.

October 10, 2011  04:44 PM ET
QUOTE(#6):

Calvin Johnson.

I can see him, Revis, Thomas, Willis, or AP as choices

October 10, 2011  04:44 PM ET

Some intriguing players for sure. I'll wait for args before listing my choice.

Although, the answer: Anyone else works better than JMR.

October 10, 2011  04:44 PM ET
QUOTE(#6):

Calvin Johnson.

Agreed. I was deciding between him and 1 other, but I'll let Sweetness make his first argument before I say who it was.

October 10, 2011  04:47 PM ET
QUOTE(#5):

I love this topic. A ton of good players, Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson, AP, Darrelle Revis, Patrick Willis, Dwayne Bowe, Jon Beason, Ryan Kalil, Lamar Woodley, Sidney Rice, Leron McClain.Definitley the best draft of the 2000's, and the Raiders took Russell.Hahaha

Yeah, thanks for the great topic selection PatsFan, should be a good TD and tourney.

 
October 10, 2011  04:47 PM ET
QUOTE(#17):

JMR

I will admit that that fat, Purple Dranker freaking killed the Broncos.

<cries>

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