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  • 10/18/2011, 12:35PM ET

What's Palmer worth?

Sabih (102-48-19) vs Ron_Burgundy (13-11-2)
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Is Palmer worth a first-round pick?

No

First, look at the recent deals for QBs. The Raiders got Campbell for a fourth round pick last year, WAS got McNabb for a second and third rounder (which was overpaying), and traded him for two 6th round picks this offseason.

Kolb was traded for a second round pick and DRC.

There is also a few good QBs that will be available in next year's draft.

Don't think Palmer can produce right away. First he needs to learn the playbook and second, perhaps get back in football shape.

Palmer is no longer a franchise QB. He has not been the same since his injury. Has failed to achieve any team success with the Bengals. Very inconsistent.

He is also 31. Which may not be old but for a guy with the knee injury he had, it makes you wonder how many years does he have left.

His "retirement" should also raise red flags. He was not happy with ownership but its not as if the Raiders have a great front-office. If that had been any other player, they would have been ridiculed but Carson got a pass.


The important thing to remember in this trade was that it is a second rounder that COULD become a first rounder.

In Oakland Carson will get to reunite with Hue Jackson (the coach of the Raiders) and a chance for a fresh start. It's hard to value what Palmer will be able to accomplish, but there are plenty of examples of players who have reignited their careers by moving to a new franchise. Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jason Campbell, even Brett Favre.

Looking at recent compensation though it's hard to really gauge what Palmer is worth. Campbell was jettisoned to the Raiders because the Redskins had McNabb coming in and Campbell was, well Jason Campbell. The Vikings got McNabb for so little, because of the season he had had and Kolb was given for a second rounder after doing what exactly.

The argument about next year's draft class is less about the talent and more about where the Raiders will pick. They won't get Luck or Barkley or Landry Jones, so I think the reward that Carson Pamler brings justifies the risk


The important thing to remember in this trade was that it is a second rounder that COULD become a first rounder.

The important thing to remember is that they traded him for a first round pick in 2012 and a conditional second round pick that turns into a first round pick if OAK wins a playoff game this year.

If it was just a second round pick, I would have been fine with but OAK gave up way too much for a QB who has struggled in recent years.

His last 3 years his stats are:

82.9 qb rating
61.2 Completion %
6.7 Yards per attempt
47 TD - 33 INT
220.8 YPG

Compare him to Campbell in the same time

85.4 qb rating
62.0 Completion %
7.2 Yards per attempt
39 TDs - 27 INTs
205 YPG

In other key areas such as 3rd downs and 4th quarter, Campbell is statistically better.

I am not saying Campbell is better. But do Palmer's numbers justify the price.

Also, With the trade, OAK does not have a draft pick till the 5th round in 2012. And could go three years without having a first rounder.

A team which needs help at WR, and depth at other positions cannot take such a high risk gamble.


There are several ways to build a team. People always point to the draft and usually I am a huge fan of building that way, however, the Raiders are not like most teams. Some recent examples of teams getting legitimate stars not through the draft:

Wes Welker
Tony Romo
Kurt Warner
Drew Brees
Karlos Dansby
NNamdi Asomugha
Matt Schaub
Thomas Jones

I'm not saying that the price that Oakland paid wasn't steep, but they are aware of what Palmer can do and there were not any great options out there. The Patriots have pretty much admitted that the draft is a crapshoot by trading their picks for more picks and it's not like Oakland could not make a move or two to get new picks.

If Carson Palmer plays well (it's quite possible that this layoff has given him additional time to strengthen his arm), then Oakland could always turn around and trade him or Campbell and get a draft pick in return.

So, what Oakland really did was trade a first and second for Carson Palmer to get to the playoffs and build his value and then can re-evaluate this offseason and possibly recoup some of that value in the offseason with a trade.


Carson Palmer's current also carries a huge cap hit. $12.5, $13 and $15 over next three years. That does not give the Raiders a lot of room under the cap to pursue big name FA.

They had to renegotiate the contract to get under the cap.

While the layoff might have allowed him time to recover, it most likely will hurt his play. Football and the more importantly the QB position requires repetition and chemistry, something that Palmer will not have right away.

The Patriots have pretty much admitted that the draft is a crapshoot by trading their picks for more picks

Last year, NE drafted CB McCourty (1st round), TE Rob Gronkowski (2nd), LB Spikes (2nd), TE Hernandez (4th) and P Mesko (5th). That doesn't sound like giving up on the draft. They had 7 picks in the first 5 rounds and only 2 have failed to become regular contributors.

As for your idea of trading Campbell or Palmer in offseason, it is not a great strategy.

No GM will give the same compensation for Palmer that OAK gave and Campbell will receive backup QB consideration (a 3rd round at best, likely a 4th).


You have not addressed what the Raiders SHOULD have done with those picks or done with their QB situation. DO you start Pryor or Boller? Who do you go after? There were not a lot of options out there and the Raiders had to pay a premium because it was in season, but the bottom line is they got a quality signal caller.

New England - Yes, the Patriots have had some great picks in the draft, but also whiffed on a quite a few too. It's like bowling a 300, but needing two games to do it. Brandon Meriweather, Darius Butler, Laurence Maroney, Brandon Tate. They have had just as many misses and have passed on some big players just like everyone else.

It doesn't take a genious to see the high price...GMs treat drafs like lottery tickets the more you have the better the odds that you hit it big, but what about this season The price is ALWAYS steep during the season to get someone capable of running your offense at a level at least as high as it was prior to the move. Is Carson Palmer going to be like Mike Vick or Tom Brady when they came in? No, but he makes them better now and for this season. You don't throw away opportunities for playoffs.

But what would you do?

Comment #1 has been removed
October 18, 2011  12:45 PM ET
QUOTE(#1):

You know what San Diego means?

?

October 18, 2011  12:47 PM ET

RAIDERS!

Comment #4 has been removed
October 18, 2011  12:59 PM ET

I thought there were possibly two #1 picks involved in this deal. The second #1 being "conditional".

If so, an amazing deal for the Bengals.

October 18, 2011  12:59 PM ET

They are trading their future away to stay competitive now. You simply don't do that. So what if you win the division this year, if you don't win it all you have wasted future draft picks. They won't be picking next year to the 5th round and gave a top pick in 2013 away. When do they plan on getting young talent to build a team with?

If you where the Packers or someone competing for a championship and you lose your QB I could understand the move but not the Raiders. Best hope is making the playoffs.

October 18, 2011  01:01 PM ET
QUOTE(#5):

I thought there were possibly two #1 picks involved in this deal. The second #1 being "conditional". If so, an amazing deal for the Bengals.

It is a 1st in 2012 and a 2nd in 2013 that could become a 1st.

Comment #8 has been removed
October 18, 2011  01:08 PM ET
QUOTE(#1):

You know what San Diego means?

I believe it stands for a whales vahina...

October 18, 2011  01:16 PM ET

If the Raiders stayed put, and played whoever their back up is, chances are this "winning" attitude they now have, would dissipate. They're winning as of this writing, and I'm sure they'd like to keep it going. They can always go back to the way they were, and even with this trade, they may well do that.

Palmer never did impress me, what little I saw him play, but, as with most players, a change of scenery could be just what he needs. If he helps them continue winning, then why not?

October 18, 2011  01:20 PM ET
QUOTE(#7):

It is a 1st in 2012 and a 2nd in 2013 that could become a 1st.

What an amazing haul. Are we certain that Al Davis is dead?

October 18, 2011  01:24 PM ET
QUOTE(#8):

Idiots. You cannot call them idiots until you see how it plays out . idiot

They have the youngest team in the league,they did great the last 2 drafts, this years draft they had double picks via trades are players that are playing now-Barksdale-Vandyke-Chekwa-Taiwan Jones-plus Aaron Curry and Carson Palmer that is next years draft .That is a good draft

October 18, 2011  01:25 PM ET
QUOTE(#8):

Idiots.

you cant call them idiots untilo you see how it plays out

Comment #14 has been removed
October 18, 2011  01:28 PM ET
QUOTE(#12):

They have the youngest team in the league,they did great the last 2 drafts, this years draft they had double picks via trades are players that are playing now-Barksdale-Vandyke-Chekwa-Taiwan Jones-plus Aaron Curry and Carson Palmer that is next years draft .That is a good draft

plus Tyrell Pryor

October 18, 2011  03:16 PM ET

Ron has me leaning so far right I can see my right **** cheek.........

October 18, 2011  03:31 PM ET

Palmer is just 31. He is way better than Campbell has ever been.

October 18, 2011  03:38 PM ET
QUOTE(#15):

plus Tyrell Pryor

And he wasn't worth the 3rd rounder. Sorry but you don't mortgage your future away like that. You will have more injuries and players who fail and need replacing. How do you expect them to stay competitive? Sorry but they basically don't have a draft last year which will give them no way to sure up the teams inefficiencies.

Comment #19 has been removed
 
October 18, 2011  03:44 PM ET
QUOTE(#19):

The important thing to remember in this trade was that it is a second rounder that COULD become a first rounder.

Its two first rounders. One in 2012 and a 2013 conditional first rounder which is at least a second rounder.

The Raiders have no picks until the 5th round next year.

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