- 12/27/2011, 01:24AM ET
Bundyrocksalot said 12/27, 01:24 AM
Which of the playoff teams has the best shot at winning at Green Bay.
I am a Packer fan and have been following every other team closely. Out of the five/six other teams (NY Giants and Dallas have yet to be determined) There is only one team that I do not want to see them face.
The San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco has one of, if not the best defenses in the league. Kansas City was able to get to Aaron Rodgers and hold the offense to a mere 14 points. San Francisco's defense is far superior to that of Kansas City. I will admit that if SF defense does not show up, then they won't stand a chance.
The Saints, Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, and Lions all have decent offenses, but I see an offensive shootout against Green Bay, and that typically favors the Packers.
San Francisco is the only team out there that really gives me cause for concern as a Green Bay fan. They always say, defense wins championships, and if they can keep Rodgers and company in check, the Packers could be in for a long day on the field.
DJRoxalot said 12/27, 01:37 AM
The New Orleans Saints.
They have the offense to be able to hang with the Packers in a shootout. They already played to open the regular season and the Packers won a hard fought 42-34 game.
The 49ers don't have the offense to hang with the Packers. The strength of the San Francisco offense is the running game. They are 7th in ypg, but GB is 16th against the run. Their weakness is the pass defense, but they are 2nd in takeaways with 22 this season.
The Saints match up much better vs the Packers. They have a QB in Drew Brees who is capable of carving up that Green Bay defense like it is a turkey on Thanksgiving. The Saints are 1st in passing yards, 1st in scoring, and 10th in rushing yards.
The 49ers are 7th in rushing yards, 15th in scoring, and 29th in passing yards.
Part of the reason KC beat GB was because of Kyle Orton, an experienced veteran QB. He completed 23 of 31 passes for 299 yards (9.6ypa) that was able to help out a good running game that totaled 139 yards. Oh, and Kansas City might not be a very good team, but they have the 9th best pass defense.
The 49ers are 18th and are often shredded that way.
Bundyrocksalot said 12/27, 01:45 AM
I will not argue with you on statistics. Offensively, you are absolutely right. The Saints would be the better matchup. I am talking defense. San Francisco has all the tools on defense to keep Aaron Rodgers in check, and they have a managable offense that can do exactly what the Chiefs did... KEEP HIM OFF THE FIELD. Clock management has been a big key for the 49ers this season.
Look what San Francisco did against the Steelers. They kept the offense off the field, and held an AFC powerhouse to 3 points. This game is the game I look at as a reference. The 49ers managed the clock, kept the offense in check the entire game, and even though they only scored 20 points that game. They were in control. If they can play that way against the Packers, they have the ability to beat them. The only way they can win is with their defense. Again, you are right..if GB gets it going offensively, then this will be a route of a game.
The Saints albiet have a fantastic offense, will likely get into a shootout with the Packers, and must play at Lambaeu Field at the end of January. Would be a high scoring game, but the Packers in those elements win a shootout.
DJRoxalot said 12/27, 02:00 AM
"I am talking defense. San Francisco has all the tools on defense to keep Aaron Rodgers in check, and they have a managable offense that can do exactly what the Chiefs did... KEEP HIM OFF THE FIELD."
I think you have it confused. The 49ers wouldn't be able to keep Rodgers off the field.
The 49ers are allowing 233 passing ypg, 18th.
The Chiefs only allow 211ypg.
Rodgers averages 310ypg, 3rd best in the NFL.
In 6 games against teams over .500, Smith has completed just 61.4% of his passes for 179ypg, 6.28ypa, 5 TD's, 4 INT's with a 79.6 Passer Rating.
He doesn't exactly step up his game against the better teams. He has just 2 games of at least 200 passing yards in 6 matchups against a good team.
"Look what San Francisco did against the Steelers. They kept the offense off the field, and held an AFC powerhouse to 3 points. This game is the game I look at as a reference."
You do realize Big Ben wasn't healthy, right?
He threw an uncharacteristic 3 picks because he couldn't scramble.
You might fear a good (not great) defense, but Brees should scare you even more. He is a surgeon on the football field.
Finish this Tuesday.
Bundyrocksalot said 12/27, 05:38 AM
Again DJ, you are missing my entire point here. San Francisco has a managable offense and uses the clock to their advantage. This alone would keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. The 49ers have given up a league best 202 points this season. Six times they have held opponents to 10 points or less. You say Big Ben was hurt and could not scramble. It really doesnt matter, the Steelers still have a running game that could not get the job done.
All I am saying here is that San Francisco matches up better than any other NFC team against the Packers. The Packers win a shoot out against anyone. They proved that against the Saints in Week 1, and the Giants in Week 12, two potential playoff teams. They also have shootouts against San Diego, and you can even include Tampa Bay in that mix.
The Packers have already beat four of the playoff teams to date. ATL, NO, DET, and NYG. Three of which being on the road. They are at home where weather will play a factor more with offense than defense. This is where I give the 49ers the edge against all the other teams. Their defense is good enough in the cold weather to possibly upset Green Bay on the road.
DJRoxalot said 12/27, 10:33 AM
I understand your point and I just totally disagree with you.
Against the Steelers, Pittsbugh had the ball more!!!! They had it for 31 minutes and 26 seconds compared to 28 minutes and 34 seconds for SF. They didn't dominate the clock like you seem to think they did.
Ben completed 25 of 44 passes for 330 yards (7.5ypa), but they only ran the ball 19 times, but they averaged 4.4ypc. Ben's INT's are what hurt the Steelers. They might have been better off playing Charlie Batch in that game and resting Ben. I watched the game and he clearly wasn't himself. He was hobbling around in the pocket and threw some bad passes.
Against Dallas, the 49ers allowed 27 points. Dallas averages just 23.8ppg, 12th in the League. The Saints average a League best 329passing ypg and 33.5ppg, 2nd best in the League behind the GB.
The 49ers might get some decent yardage running the ball, but I think the Packers would jump out to n early lead so SF would be forced to throw more than they would want to. And that GB defense would cause a few turnovers. I think Rodgers would throw for 400 yards and 3 TD's vs that pass defense.
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