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  • 12/27/2011, 01:24AM ET

Best shot to beat the Packers

Bundyrocksalot (68-60-10) vs DJRoxalot (1085-669-126)
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Which of the playoff teams has the best shot at winning at Green Bay.

I am a Packer fan and have been following every other team closely. Out of the five/six other teams (NY Giants and Dallas have yet to be determined) There is only one team that I do not want to see them face.

That team?

The San Francisco 49ers.

San Francisco has one of, if not the best defenses in the league. Kansas City was able to get to Aaron Rodgers and hold the offense to a mere 14 points. San Francisco's defense is far superior to that of Kansas City. I will admit that if SF defense does not show up, then they won't stand a chance.

The Saints, Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, and Lions all have decent offenses, but I see an offensive shootout against Green Bay, and that typically favors the Packers.

San Francisco is the only team out there that really gives me cause for concern as a Green Bay fan. They always say, defense wins championships, and if they can keep Rodgers and company in check, the Packers could be in for a long day on the field.


The New Orleans Saints.

They have the offense to be able to hang with the Packers in a shootout. They already played to open the regular season and the Packers won a hard fought 42-34 game.

The 49ers don't have the offense to hang with the Packers. The strength of the San Francisco offense is the running game. They are 7th in ypg, but GB is 16th against the run. Their weakness is the pass defense, but they are 2nd in takeaways with 22 this season.

The Saints match up much better vs the Packers. They have a QB in Drew Brees who is capable of carving up that Green Bay defense like it is a turkey on Thanksgiving. The Saints are 1st in passing yards, 1st in scoring, and 10th in rushing yards.

The 49ers are 7th in rushing yards, 15th in scoring, and 29th in passing yards.

Part of the reason KC beat GB was because of Kyle Orton, an experienced veteran QB. He completed 23 of 31 passes for 299 yards (9.6ypa) that was able to help out a good running game that totaled 139 yards. Oh, and Kansas City might not be a very good team, but they have the 9th best pass defense.

The 49ers are 18th and are often shredded that way.


I will not argue with you on statistics. Offensively, you are absolutely right. The Saints would be the better matchup. I am talking defense. San Francisco has all the tools on defense to keep Aaron Rodgers in check, and they have a managable offense that can do exactly what the Chiefs did... KEEP HIM OFF THE FIELD. Clock management has been a big key for the 49ers this season.

Look what San Francisco did against the Steelers. They kept the offense off the field, and held an AFC powerhouse to 3 points. This game is the game I look at as a reference. The 49ers managed the clock, kept the offense in check the entire game, and even though they only scored 20 points that game. They were in control. If they can play that way against the Packers, they have the ability to beat them. The only way they can win is with their defense. Again, you are right..if GB gets it going offensively, then this will be a route of a game.

The Saints albiet have a fantastic offense, will likely get into a shootout with the Packers, and must play at Lambaeu Field at the end of January. Would be a high scoring game, but the Packers in those elements win a shootout.


"I am talking defense. San Francisco has all the tools on defense to keep Aaron Rodgers in check, and they have a managable offense that can do exactly what the Chiefs did... KEEP HIM OFF THE FIELD."

I think you have it confused. The 49ers wouldn't be able to keep Rodgers off the field.

The 49ers are allowing 233 passing ypg, 18th.

The Chiefs only allow 211ypg.

Rodgers averages 310ypg, 3rd best in the NFL.

In 6 games against teams over .500, Smith has completed just 61.4% of his passes for 179ypg, 6.28ypa, 5 TD's, 4 INT's with a 79.6 Passer Rating.

He doesn't exactly step up his game against the better teams. He has just 2 games of at least 200 passing yards in 6 matchups against a good team.

"Look what San Francisco did against the Steelers. They kept the offense off the field, and held an AFC powerhouse to 3 points. This game is the game I look at as a reference."

You do realize Big Ben wasn't healthy, right?

He threw an uncharacteristic 3 picks because he couldn't scramble.

You might fear a good (not great) defense, but Brees should scare you even more. He is a surgeon on the football field.

Finish this Tuesday.


Again DJ, you are missing my entire point here. San Francisco has a managable offense and uses the clock to their advantage. This alone would keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. The 49ers have given up a league best 202 points this season. Six times they have held opponents to 10 points or less. You say Big Ben was hurt and could not scramble. It really doesnt matter, the Steelers still have a running game that could not get the job done.

All I am saying here is that San Francisco matches up better than any other NFC team against the Packers. The Packers win a shoot out against anyone. They proved that against the Saints in Week 1, and the Giants in Week 12, two potential playoff teams. They also have shootouts against San Diego, and you can even include Tampa Bay in that mix.

The Packers have already beat four of the playoff teams to date. ATL, NO, DET, and NYG. Three of which being on the road. They are at home where weather will play a factor more with offense than defense. This is where I give the 49ers the edge against all the other teams. Their defense is good enough in the cold weather to possibly upset Green Bay on the road.


I understand your point and I just totally disagree with you.

Against the Steelers, Pittsbugh had the ball more!!!! They had it for 31 minutes and 26 seconds compared to 28 minutes and 34 seconds for SF. They didn't dominate the clock like you seem to think they did.

Ben completed 25 of 44 passes for 330 yards (7.5ypa), but they only ran the ball 19 times, but they averaged 4.4ypc. Ben's INT's are what hurt the Steelers. They might have been better off playing Charlie Batch in that game and resting Ben. I watched the game and he clearly wasn't himself. He was hobbling around in the pocket and threw some bad passes.

Against Dallas, the 49ers allowed 27 points. Dallas averages just 23.8ppg, 12th in the League. The Saints average a League best 329passing ypg and 33.5ppg, 2nd best in the League behind the GB.

The 49ers might get some decent yardage running the ball, but I think the Packers would jump out to n early lead so SF would be forced to throw more than they would want to. And that GB defense would cause a few turnovers. I think Rodgers would throw for 400 yards and 3 TD's vs that pass defense.

Comment #1 has been removed
December 27, 2011  01:50 AM ET

Am I the only one who thinks the packers are a little overrated? I mean their schedule has been pretty cushy so far, they beat the saints and the bears three times every other team they played was a bottom feeder. Am I wrong? Aaron Rodgers is great but honestly I think Brees is better this year and the gb defense, I dont think they will repeat.

Comment #3 has been removed
December 27, 2011  02:08 AM ET
QUOTE(#2):

Am I the only one who thinks the packers are a little overrated? I mean their schedule has been pretty cushy so far, they beat the saints and the bears three times every other team they played was a bottom feeder. Am I wrong? Aaron Rodgers is great but honestly I think Brees is better this year and the gb defense, I dont think they will repeat.

Cushy schedule??? So..................who has played a tough schedule????

Lions, Raiders/Broncos(say what you will 1 will be a division winner), Saints, Falcons, Bears, Giants...(so that's a guaranteed 4 playoff teams they beat with a possible 5th if Giants win and a Bears team who would have been a playoff team if Cutler was healthy and he was when they played them on the road). They also don't exactly make the schedule so i don't think you can really fault them for that especially when they only lost once in a game thats "any given sunday".

They aren't a lock, but nobody is. IMO Brees and Rodgers should split MVP, but i would favor GB in a match-up with home-field advantage.

The only NFC team i see them maybe losing to is the Saints (though i do like the Giants more then most), and the only AFC team i think can beat them in the Super Bowl is the Ravens and thats if they realize they have Ray Rice

December 27, 2011  02:16 AM ET

The only team beating GB is themselves, and Favre is not playing. So they have that going for them.

December 27, 2011  03:19 AM ET

49ers don't score enough to beat the Packers. FGs won't get it done vs them. I hope the 49ers beat the Saints. I still favor the Pack over anyone in GB but I will take the 49ers anyday.

December 27, 2011  03:23 AM ET
QUOTE(#2):

Am I the only one who thinks the packers are a little overrated? I mean their schedule has been pretty cushy so far, they beat the saints and the bears three times every other team they played was a bottom feeder. Am I wrong? Aaron Rodgers is great but honestly I think Brees is better this year and the gb defense, I dont think they will repeat.

Brees better? Did you watch their game vs the Rams? Sorry but that is worse than losing to the Chiefs. Also Brees has had several games with multiple INTs, Rodgers has had none. How little Rodgers turns the ball over can't be minimized by Brees throwing for more yards. Rodgers is just as efficient, his team wins more and he turns it over less. Brees is great but Rodgers is playing better right now.

December 27, 2011  04:58 AM ET

There is only one team that I do not want to see them face.

That team?

The San Francisco 49ers.


That should be the one team you WANT to face. Their pass defense sucks and they don't have the firepower to stick with the Packers in a shootout. The Packers aren't exactly stellar defensively, but that wouldn't matter much against the 49ers bottom feeding offense. San Fran is taylor made for the Packers but I don't expect them to make it far enough for you to have to worry about it.

Teams for GB to worry about. Saints, Cowboys, maybe Giants. Teams that have the ability to exploit the Packers iffy pass defense and can play just enough defense of their own to stay in the game.

December 27, 2011  05:17 AM ET
QUOTE(#7):

Brees better? Did you watch their game vs the Rams? Sorry but that is worse than losing to the Chiefs. Also Brees has had several games with multiple INTs, Rodgers has had none. How little Rodgers turns the ball over can't be minimized by Brees throwing for more yards. Rodgers is just as efficient, his team wins more and he turns it over less. Brees is great but Rodgers is playing better right now.

Come on Bucky. One game? That a horrible argument even from an extreme homer.

And how exactly is a poor PASSING performance against the Rams worse than against the Chiefs? The Rams have a GOOD pass defense, they just can't stop the run and at least they get pressure on the QB which the Chiefs do not.

Rodgers is certainly having a 'better' statistical season than Brees, but those games were a horrible way to try and make the case. The Rams pass defense is BETTER than the Chiefs and they were certainly put to the test having to face the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Saints, Steelers, and Eagles...6 of the top 10 passing offenses in the NFL.

December 27, 2011  08:04 AM ET
QUOTE(#5):

The only team beating GB is themselves, and Favre is not playing. So they have that going for them.

This.

December 27, 2011  08:06 AM ET

The Saints for sure, if any of you saw the game last night, you saw the Saints scored at their own will. Something you likely will need to do to beat the packers.

December 27, 2011  08:39 AM ET

Personally, I think a perfect end to the playoffs would be Saints/Packers in Green Bay for the right to go to Indianapolis. I think that 1 yard has been eating at Drew and Payton since the game ended. It would certainly be a classic

December 27, 2011  09:11 AM ET

Inconsistent args left. San Fran kept Pitt off the field even tho Pitt had a 31.5 to 28.5 ToP advantage. Pitt also gained 100 more yards. It is the turnovers... And Ben's injury.

The Saints will be slowed by Lambeau but the Packers won't? They can slow the Packers passing game with a great run defense and suspect secondary?

Plus the Saints looked great last night but not relevant to the args.

December 27, 2011  09:13 AM ET

They can slow = 49ers.

December 27, 2011  09:36 AM ET

I haven't seen New Orleans play yet this year but I did see a pretty remarkable 49er team play this year. I still think GB has what it takes to go all the way.

Comment #16 has been removed
December 27, 2011  10:33 AM ET

I agree with DJ.

Comment #18 has been removed
December 27, 2011  10:36 AM ET
QUOTE(#9):

Come on Bucky. One game? That a horrible argument even from an extreme homer. And how exactly is a poor PASSING performance against the Rams worse than against the Chiefs? The Rams have a GOOD pass defense, they just can't stop the run and at least they get pressure on the QB which the Chiefs do not. Rodgers is certainly having a 'better' statistical season than Brees, but those games were a horrible way to try and make the case. The Rams pass defense is BETTER than the Chiefs and they were certainly put to the test having to face the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Saints, Steelers, and Eagles...6 of the top 10 passing offenses in the NFL.

My point was more because everyone is jumping on the Brees bandwagon after the one bad game Rodgers had but seem to ignore those games for Brees.

Also the Rams defense is in no way better than the Chiefs. I don't care if the stats support the other, the Chiefs have a decent defense and their secondary is very underrated.

 
Comment #20 has been removed

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