- 01/26/2012, 03:29PM ET
Atro SYB said 01/26, 03:29 PM
The recent migration of baseball's biggest names in hitting from the NL to the AL is due in large part to the confluence of the demand for long-term contracts and the fact that these players are presumed to be automatic designated hitters when they reach the back end of their 9 and 10 year deals. We'll see it happen again next year with James Loney, Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino, and possibly David Wright. Guys like Delmon Young and Josh Hamilton will also stay in the AL and try and get the longest contracts possible, with the back-end DH scenario playing just as much into it. These guys won't get 9 and 10 year deals, but they'll get longer deals in the AL than they would in the NL, and they'll cross over.
In 2013 It'll also look awfully green on the other side of the fence for guys like Matt Holliday, and Adrian Beltre won't be looking for a short-term deal in the NL, either.
If the NL doesn't make themselves more attractive to these kinds of hitters, within 4 or 5 years the scales of popularity and revenue will tip over to the AL dramatically. The powers that be in the NL will see this coming, and they'll see no choice but to adopt the DH, for better or for worse.
JdsJets: Trade up for LUCK! said 01/26, 04:09 PM
Do you really think that the reason Pujols and Fielder signed with AL teams is because they have a chance to play DH once they get old in the back end of their contract?
No, it is because their new teams offered them the most money.
If their former teams were to offer more money, then I am sure they would have stayed. They didnt and both players have gone to teams that have offered more money.
It is all about the money, not the long term DH possibility.
Some corrections to your second paragraph:
Holliday will not be an FA until 2016-2017. You are wrong about that
Beltre will be 34 going on 35 in two years. You must be drunk if you think any team would think about a long term deal at that age.
Also, you seem to have forgotten about pitching. If all of the hitting shifts to the AL, wont all of the big name pitchers that will be FA's after this year, ex: Haren, Cain, Hamels go to the NL? To face weak hitting. Yeah, Not so fast about the AL being the most popular.
NL fans love to talk about pitching and AL fans love hitting, I dont see why we need a change.
Atro SYB said 01/26, 04:37 PM
No, I really don't think Pujols and Fielder signed with the AL because they have a chance to play DH when they get old at the back end of their contract. They signed with AL teams because they got the years they wanted, and the attendant financial security. They did not and, had they waited, would not have gotten their 9 and 10 year deals from NL teams, because at the back ends, you'd have a 41-year-old 1B (Pujols) and a fat 36-year-old 1B (Fielder). They only could have gotten those years in the AL, and other NL players in the near future will see the same benefit - the DH adds years to their contracts, money to their wallets, and more financial security to their families.
Your contention that they went to the AL because the new teams offered them more cash is short-sighted. They got more cash because they got more years. They got more years because they aren't painted into a single role as a 1B for the rest of their careers in the AL. It's really as simple as that.
I am aware of Beltre's age. But I guarantee you, he will be offered more years in the AL than in the NL in his new contract no matter how many years it is - because he can DH. And he'll take it.
JdsJets: Trade up for LUCK! said 01/26, 06:12 PM
You are saying that these players are getting more years because they are in the AL and they can have more value for their team. You know what, if I was a GM, I would understand that and add a couple years onto a contract for the fact they have a chance to play DH later in the deal. I get that.
I do however see a flaw in your argument. Pujols got 10 year deals from the Marlins and Cardinals. Both teams however, were about 40 million dollars less than the Angels offer. He got the same long term deal, just neither NL team could afford what the Angels were giving him.
I can not find any deals for Fielder so I wont mention him.
More years means more money, but two NL teams gave Pujols the same amount of years but less money than the Angels.
Also, rebutting your first argument, why would the NL need big name hitters while they can obtain all of the big level pitchers?
Say all of the big market hitters do go to the AL, will big market pitchers try to go to the AL or NL for a long term deal? Easy question.
Take the Giants for example. They have GREAT pitching but awful hitting. They were 3rd in attendance in baseball. You dont need great hitting for revenue.
Atro SYB said 01/27, 10:49 AM
You're inaccurate about the Miami/St. Louis money and it works for my argument. Miami offered Pujols 10 years and 275 MIL. That's 20 mil more than the offer he accepted with Anaheim, yet he turned it down. HE WENT TO ANAHEIM FOR LESS MONEY. Why? Because he can DH at the back end of the contract. Because he can be a full-time player. I don't think he pictured himself being the Matt Stairs of the next decade in Miami.
Now, althought the Cards did offer pujols 20 mill less than Anaheim. seeing as how he went to Anaheim for 20 million less than what Miami offered him, you gotta believe that if the Cards offered him 275 like Miami, he would have made the same decision; going to an AL team where he had a chance to play full-time through the length of the contract, because of the DH rule.
Your example about SF falls short of the fact that revenue is hardly based on attendance alone. Anaheim, just after signing Pujols, got a 4 BILLION DOLLAR tv contract. Think SF has anything like that? For all their pitching, they don't. And it was the Dodgers, an NL team, who lost out on that Fox Sports money.
Prince offer: 160 million over 7 years from LAD (NL). No DH = less years.
JdsJets: Trade up for LUCK! said 01/28, 06:37 PM
I am sorry about the Miami offer. I saw a source that said 10 years and 200 million from the Cards and Angels.
However, I dont think the Dodgers gave Prince less years because he would not be able to DH. They gave him less because they are not in a good financial state. They do not have the same ownership right now Detroit has.
I do not think the DH factor is why Pujols signed with the Angels. Chances are, he signed with the Angels because he felt that he has a better chance of winning right now.
Also, the fact that it is LA may have drawn him over to the Angels. This brought him to a giant big name city. Miami is not the same as LA.
True, my argument did fall short but I just want to refresh something.
The NL, even if they get all the big name pitchers and the AL gets all the big name hitters, which according to your argument will happen, I still do not think the NL will just plug in a DH.
It may be something that can be planned out in years from now, but not in a FEW years as you said. If everything you said will happen, it wont take only 4-5 years to bring all the great hitters to the AL, it will take a LOT of time.
Great TD Atro
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