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- 05/21/2012, 10:12PM ET
Best path for Aroldis Chapman in the future, starter or closer
Outlaw... said 05/21, 10:12 PM
Joe Simpson and Chip Carray had an interesting discussion on this topic during today's telecast of the Braves-Reds game, and I thought it would make a good TD.
To me, the answer is easy.
I think he has the stuff to be one of the most dominant closers in the game, and I think that's the road the Reds should take with him.
Chapman is a fireballer, he routinely hits triple digits on the radar gun, and this season, he hasn't allowed an earned run out of the pen, and his walk numbers are very low for a guy that throws as hard as he does.
If he's a starter, he's not gonna be able to throw 100 mph through the course of 9 innings. I can't see him lasting more than 5 innings in any game, and if he's turned into a starter, it seems to me like an arm injury waiting to happen.
If he's a closer, he can let it all hang out for one inning, hit 105 with his fastball all inning if he wants to.
Right now he's pretty much a flamethrower that mixes in a slider every once in a while, pretty much what closers are these days.
Plus the Reds currently don't have an official closer, and I think Chapman is perfect for the job.
Argos. said 05/21, 11:56 PM
The bullpen is for failed starters. All relievers at one point or another were failed starters.
You must give a player, especially one so talented, a chance to fail as a starter before considering him as a reliever.
Why? Because you want your best pitcher and the most talented to be pitching upwards of 200 innings instead of 60.
You don't spend $30 million on an international free agent to be a reliever.
You do not know that he will fail as a starter and wont be able to go more than 5 IP. Already this season he has toned his fastball down, only averaging 96.7 mph per fastball this year, to get better control. If Chapman were to slowly get stretched out, that is a very sustainable velocity to be a starter. He is throwing in the same range as guys like Strasburg, Price, and Verlander. Not to mention he has a easy delivery, which should help him pitch 160+ innings.
Arm injuries aren't prevented in the pen either (see Zumya)...
He pitched in Cuba as a starter. His first year pro was as a starter, and he was amazing in Spring Training this year as a starter.
Don't waste this potential ace with amazing talents in the bullpen.
He is a future starter.
Outlaw... said 05/22, 10:12 PM
Failed starters is a bit of a misleading term. Failed means they tried their hand in the Majors and failed at it. In some cases this is true, but a pitcher turned into a reliever in the minors isn't a failed starter, it's coaches putting the player in the best position for the player to succeed and benefit the franchise.
.Craig Kimbrel was brought through the minor leagues as a closer.
Chapman doesn't have the benefit of going through the minor leagues.
If he's forced into a starters role, it will be a disaster.
He might pitch good for a few games, but throwing that hard, his arm will tire after a few innings, and doing it every 5th day would really wear him down. Tommy John or shoulder problems waiting to happen. It is Chapman's arm speed the generates most of the velocity of his fastball.
He should be a closer. His style of pitching fits the role of a closer, not a starter. Chapman is a guy that needs to let it all hang out, and he can't do that as a starter.
Why risk him blowing out his shoulder when he could be one of the best closers in the game?
Argos. said 05/24, 09:36 AM
All relievers are failed starters. Most had the opportunity to fail at the major league level, but all failed at one point. Kimbrel for example failed and was very bad his first season in College as a starter, and was then converted to the bullpen in his second season.
Where has Chapman failed?
He has dominated the international stage, and he was terrific in his few starts in the minors in his first pro season.
Scouts like Keith Law have stated that he has a fluent, repeatable motion. He should have no arm problems, as he does not have a flawed motion like Strasburg or like Mark Prior or Kerry Wood had.
I don't hear you calling for Strasburg going to the 'pen?
Also closers get injured at a very high rate. Closers are often pitched on consecutive days, without notice, and are forced to get up and down in the bullpen throwing often. This is why so many closers have been injured this year.
Being on a strict schedule, knowing when you will start, knowing when you long toss, knowing when to throw on off-days, certainty etc. can be much better for someone who you're concerned about injury.
Doesn't have starter stuff? He has 3 plus pitches!
Outlaw... said 05/24, 10:04 AM
Starting a few games in college doesn't make a player a failed starter. As far as I'm concerned, if they never got the chance to start in the Major Leagues, they aren't fail;ed starters, and even some of them moved to the bull pen because of injury problems, did you call John Smoltz a failed starter during his years as a closer?
Chapman and Kimbrel have a lot of similarities. Both can throw triple digits, and both use the slider as their secondary pitch.
He Chapman becomes a starter, I don't care how fluid his motion is, he doesn't generate the velocity with his legs, it's all arm speed, and that sounds risky to me. Sure he might lay back on his fastballs and throw 95, but why should he?
As a closer, there's less of a chance he blows out his arm, he's free to throw as hard as he wants, and he has proven MAJOR LEAGUE success in the bullpen. If he does start, I doubt he'd ever make it past the 6th inning. He was made for the bullpen.
And by the way, thanks for taking two days to make an argument.
Argos. said 05/24, 11:14 AM
If you suck in college as a starter, you are a failed starter. How do you expect to get a chance to fail in the majors as a starter, if you cannot even get there? Besides, if you failed in college, you aren't gonna succeed against better players in pro ball.
Smoltz was a totally different situation, and we all know it.
Chapman can start, look at his spring training line:
17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 18 k, 2 bb, .262 opponent avg
Chapman was the best starter among all Reds starters in spring, by far and away.
Injury concerns for Chapman have no basis. Does anyone have injury concerns and are calling for Verlander and Price to move to the bullpen? Nope. And Chapman would be a similar pitcher to both, throwing a similar velocity.
Chapman can start, and average 95-96 mph on his fastball, still blowing it past hitters like Verlander and Price, and then when needed turn it up to triple digits, like other hard throwers.
How was he made for the bullpen??? He has started at every where he has been, and has been awesome at it.
There is no reason for concern of injury, and you want Chapman in a position to provide you the most value. Starters are more valuable.
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Comments (34) Add A Comment
I agree with Outlaw here, Chapman will have the best success in the bullpen, or closer. You say that the bullpen is for underachieved pitchers? Mariano Rivera was never a starter and I would not put him in that category.
Bundyrocksalot
Truth Or Consequences, NM
Total Comments (294)
I wonder what Mariano's career would have been like if he'd ever moved into the rotation...
MagicSpecs
England, UK
Total Comments (182)
Stick him in the pen.....Aroldis meet Tommy John
The Munk
Total Comments (179)
He was a starter to begin with. However, he did not fair so well. But , that was before his cutter days began.
OlderthanDirt
Total Comments (2091)
When Argos stated that the bullpen is full of failed starters, I vehemently disagree. There are some quality pitchers in the bullpens that never cracked into the starting rotation simply because they were destined to be "specialty" guys. You know, those lefties that are so tough on lefties but righties jack them up. Now all these guys were probably starters in High School and College but I'm talking at the Major League level.
OlderthanDirt
Total Comments (2091)
His rookie season he had 10 starts.
His entire minor league career was pretty much as a starter, starting in 68 games.
Outside his first career pro season in rookie league ball, when they were just trying to stretch him out, he was a starter for all 5 minor league seasons he had.
He failed as a starter, really struggling in AAA and in his 10 big league starts, so they then moved him to the bullpen.
Argos.
Total Comments (5415)
He, just to clarify, is Mariano Rivera...
Argos.
Total Comments (5415)
Dusty Baker is his manager......he's better off in the 'pen.
ElevenRingsSTL
Total Comments (2971)
I agree with Argos, you don't waste a potential ace starting pitcher in the bullpen. Relief pitchers are failed starters. Everyone goes bonkers over Rivera, but even he was a failed starter. Starting Pitchers are FAR more valuable to a team then any closer. If Jose Mesa can dominate as a closer, it shows you just how valuable closers are
Let the kid start, and see what you have. If he fails, move him back to the bullpen.
we_are___
State College, PA
Total Comments (266)
Nice job researching that statement.......................................
If Rivera had the skills to start, the Yankees would have started him. Rivera did not, so they moved him to the bullpen. Anyone who thinks a closer is more valuable then a starting pitcher does not understand baseball.
we_are___
State College, PA
Total Comments (266)
At the time he moved to the pen Mo was believed to not have enough pitches to start. He did start and did not do badly for a rookie. he never developed, though he did play with, enough other pitches to be considered for a starting role again. Besides he was so dominant as to practically change the game. Now everyone needs a closer.
AllStarz Ruinating…
Total Comments (19280)
Probably but not definately a good but not great starter. He did not develop his cutter until he was already in the pen.
AllStarz Ruinating…
Total Comments (19280)
Because of Mo and his success, every Pitching Coach is now teaching the cutter.
OlderthanDirt
Total Comments (2091)
one other thing. Do not be surprised if Chapman is not quite as good in the future as his #s say he is right now.
AllStarz Ruinating…
Total Comments (19280)
They teach the slider too, but few are sparky Lyle's slider.
AllStarz Ruinating…
Total Comments (19280)
There are certain pitchers today however that are groomed or destined (choose one) to be a relief pitcher or closer. Look at Craig Kimbrel for Atlanta, as a rookie , he was not even thought of to be a Starter. He was put in the closer role and that is where his career will be made. I doubt we will EVER see him in a starting role while he hits 95+ consistently on the radar gun.
OlderthanDirt
Total Comments (2091)
A Starter has more value, and why they are paid more. most times if a pitcher can be a good, not great but good, starter, the team will make them one.
AllStarz Ruinating…
Total Comments (19280)
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