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- 06/05/2012, 12:27AM ET
Biggest surprise of Day One of the MLB First-Year Player Draft.
Marlins Fan said 06/05, 12:27 AM
Carlos Correa going first overall.
Not because Correa isn't going to be a good player; just because there were two players who seemed to be 1A and 1B in terms of projected draft position.
1A, Mark Appel, ultimately went eighth to Pittsburgh while 1B AKA Byron Buxton went second overall to Minnesota.
Appel was the consensus number one pick because he's the most MLB ready. Dude could probably be a full-time starter by next year. Appel features a plus fastball (mid-to-upper 90s) and a sick breaking slider.
Buxton is considered to be the mos talented player out of the whole lot with many scouts comparing him to both Matt Kemp and Justin Upton. Buxton is the prototypical 5-tool outfielder and combines blazing speed, a cannon arm, and a bat that promises to hit for average AND power.
Yet the Houston Astros, who picked first overall, decided to go with shortstop Carlos Correa.
Now Correa is no slouch either; he's an outstanding fielder with a great arm and his ability to hit the ball has been improving over the last year. But he's no Mark Appel and he's definitely no Byron Buxton.
Not sure what the 'Stros were thinking, but taking Correa first was surprising.
Bigalke said 06/05, 12:50 AM
Look, Marlins, I understand where you're going with Correa. But ultimately what Houston did isn't that surprising... they're doing exactly what NBA teams did when they drafted Kwames straight from preps to pros, projecting greatness based on potential. At 6'4", 190, he's already bigger and has more power than any guy at SS on the Astros depth chart... and he's just 17. They're hoping that another 20-30 pounds of weight room growth can elevate his warning-track power over the fence...
Now, in my opinion it was a story you glanced over that was the MOST surprising story of the draft's first day. I'll let you reiterate the bare essentials:
"Appel was the consensus number one pick because he's the most MLB ready. Dude could probably be a full-time starter by next year. Appel features a plus fastball (mid-to-upper 90s) and a sick breaking slider."
Yet not one, not two but THREE pitchers went ahead of Appel as he slid down to the Pirates at 8th. To take a page out of your book, Kevin Gausman, Kyle Zimmer and Mark Fried are no slouches... they're all great pitchers with loads of potential. But they're certainly not Mark Appel.
Marlins Fan said 06/05, 02:57 AM
Good choice; I almost went with that angle myself but ultimately decided against it. The reason? Because there's a precedent for one guy sliding in a given draft. It happens all the time in the MLB draft, mainly due to signability issues and whatnot. There are numerous examples which I'm not going to list here because I think it's relatively common knowledge that players slide in the MLB draft when there are concerns about the potential difficulty in coming to a monetary agreement with said player. It happens, and frequently.
It happens in other sports too, like when Aaron Rodgers went from the potential number one overall choice all the way to the twenty fourth overall choice. Granted three QBs weren't taken before him, but Alex Smith sure was.
What's more surprising about Correa going first overall is the fact that two perceived stars-to-be were passed over. Appel was the consensus number one, but Buxton is believed to be the most talented of the lot. Scouts are absolutely raving about this kid, and rightfully so. He certainly has the tools and if not for questions about how long it'll take for him to be MLB-ready it was thought that he'd go first.
Bigalke said 06/06, 10:36 AM
Correa has been vaulting into people's consciousness over the past few weeks; by the time of the draft, he was being spoken about in the same tones as Buxton or Appel. The combination of size, projected power and his youth all factored into the decision to take him first. And the Astros have been talking him up since they got to work him out.
Sure, there's precedent for players sliding down a draft board. But it doesn't make it any less surprising when you see a surefire top pick freefall behind multiple players at his position. What is so surprising about Appel's drop to 8 is not that being signed with Scott Boras can cause you to plummet from your natural slot in the draft. What is so surprising is that, like I said before, three other pitchers went ahead of him.
Further, just what is it about Correa that makes his selection so surprising? That he snatched away the top spot from Buxton and from Appel. Buxton's readiness, as you mentioned, was the issue behind his not being picked first. For Appel, it's all about dollars and sense (or a lack thereof) in a system that no longer puts all the contract-negotiating leverage in the player's hands.
Marlins Fan said 06/06, 11:30 PM
Well it's pointless to post any stats here since Buxton and Correa didn't play against the same level of competition, but I just don't see how anybody could've thought Correa was the same level of prospect as Buxton. People are comparing Buxton to Matt Kemp. Matt ****-ing Kemp. Correa is more of a Brandon Inge-type player; a solid defensive player with a rocket for an arm but a lot of holes in his swing. Sure, some people think Correa will develop power down the road but as of right now he's an extremely limited hitter who plays excellent defense.
Just don't see how a prospect like that measures up to Matt Kemp 2.0, at all.
Thing is, I could see Houston skipping Buxton for Appel, because Buxton won't be MLB ready for a long time. But they didn't take Appel; they took Correa, a seventeen year old kid. If you're gonna draft a minor, someone who won't make the Show for years to come, why pass on Kemp lite for Inge lite?
Baffling.
Although personally I still think Appel should've gone first. He's a great talent and he's basically MLB-ready.
Anyhoo, it's been real TDing with you, Zach, and I wish you luck in the voting.
Many thanks for the good TD.
Bigalke said 06/07, 09:45 PM
There you have it... in both Buxton and Correa, the hype is centered around potential. While Buxton's potential is projected to have a higher ceiling, Correa has upside at a position of need for the Astros. It isn't that surprising that they would turn this direction...
What IS surprising, though, is not that Appel didn't go first. Sure, a lot of smart people -- including my opponent -- "still think Appel should've gone first". But what is surprising is that he not only dropped out of first, but that three other teams decided to go a different direction with their pitching selections despite the most MLB-ready arm being available.
Sure, the fact that Appel is a client of Scott Boras played a role in this drop. But with MLB's new draft caps, the excuse that a player and his agent could strong-arm a team out of their price range is laughable. The teams have the leverage now, and Appel's only recourse is to go back to Stanford if he doesn't like the deal... only to get something similar the next year.
So, when all is said and done, it isn't the guy who went first but the guy everyone expected to go first that is the biggest surprise in this draft...
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Comments (61) Add A Comment
Sorry... Max Fried. Was typing too fast and crossed Mark with Max. Carry on, and best of luck, Marlins... always fun to debate with you!
Bigalke
Portland, OR
Total Comments (19144)
Pujols was a 13th round pick. The draft is meaningless.
Gruden
Aurora, CO
Total Comments (298)
It happens all the time in the MLB draft, mainly due to signability issues and whatnot.
That's not an issue anymore. At least not a major one. The new MLB CBA included a slotting system for draftees. There is a little wiggle room, but players can't hold teams hostage for huge signing bonus' anymore.
C-C-C
Total Comments (4335)
Carlos Correa is no surprise going first. He is considered to be the best prospect in the draft by many scouts like Kevin Goldstein.
From what I have read, he has a way higher upside than Appel, and is way more polished than Buxton who is considered all tools but has a lot of work to do and is a risky pick.
Plus, Correa is Puerto Rican, and they tend to sign for less than American kids and not as greedy. Therefore, they can save some cash and draft tougher signability guys later in the draft with more upside, and get another top prospect. They did this when they drafted McCullers. If they had drafted Appel, a Boras client, or Buxton, a guy who is apparently demanding a lot, they would have to go way over their slotted amount and pay a luxury tax and perhaps even lose draft choices in the future, if they wanted to get McCullers too.
Argos.
Total Comments (5415)
Teams can punt picks in rounds, say 4-10, so they have enough money available to sign guys committed to college and pay second round picks, first round money.
Signability is still a major factor, and explains why guys like Giolito, McCullers, Smoral, and Alford all dropped in the draft.
Argos.
Total Comments (5415)
The MLB draft is so pointless to TD over. None of us have ever seen any of them play, nearly all of them are 2-3 years away from the bigs, and the majority of even first rounders don't make it to AAA.
Argos.
Total Comments (5415)
Doesn't work that way. If they can't sign their 2nd rounder, the team looses that 'pool of money' they can't apportion those funds towards another pick.
The Munk
Total Comments (179)
By punt, I mean select crappy college relievers that have no future, by sign them way under cost.
So you say sign three easy sign guys that have no future in baseball for like $50,000, then you can save upwards for $500,000 on that pick and allocate those funds to a more difficult player to sign.
We've already seen this with a few picks in the draft so far. Including the Jays, who took two crappy college relievers, and it is expected that they transfer the funds they save on them to guys like Alford (who would appear to be an impossible sign since he is committed to College Football) and Smoral.
Argos.
Total Comments (5415)
So basically, under the new CBA, a draft strategy is to draft tough signee stars and scrubs. It is an interesting strategy, and can will backfire if you do not sign those stars. But some teams like to gamble, and feel they need to hit it big to win (see Jays and Rays).
Argos.
Total Comments (5415)
biggest surprise was that the Pirates did not trade Appel out of the gate..........
puddin66
Total Comments (8)
it is still an issue, he is right, that is the primary reason Appell slipped.
AllStarz Ruinating…
Total Comments (19284)
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