- 08/12/2012, 02:10PM ET
Argos. said 08/12, 02:10 PM
Verlander should currently be the Cy favourite over Weaver.
First, just look at some of the raw numbers:
V: 2.46 ERA, 0.991 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 4.24 K/BB, 175.2 IP
W: 2.13 ERA, 0.916 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.74 K/BB, 131.0 IP
Something that instantly jumps out is that Verlander has thrown so many more innings, with him logging nearly 45 more innings. Verlander is a true workhorse.
But, yes Weaver has an advantage in ERA, but that is explainable.
Verlander behind him has the shittest defense in baseball. I can go into a lot of detail here, but due to characters limits, I'll just let fangraphs defensive WAR sum it up, as the Tigers have 6 of their 8 starters with negative dWAR, compared to the Angels only having 2 of 8.
This can also be summed up in the BABIP. A low BABIP mostly means that balls being put into play are being scooped up at a better rate by the pitcher's defense. Weaver has a .230 BABIP, which is one of the best in baseball along with other Angels' starters. Meanwhile, Verlander is at .259
Look at the FIP and you see Verlander has a the edge with a 2.87 compared to Weaver's 3.22. Justin's xFIP is 3.24 to Weaver's 3.90
Justin is pitching better.
CuntryBlumpkin said 08/12, 04:28 PM
You can take your sabermetrics and shove them.
Verlander has pitched more innings, and has more strikeouts. That's about all he has on Weaver. Weaver has missed a few starts due to a DL stint. More innings pitched might bode better for the team, but does not make a guy a better pitcher.
When Weaver has been in the game, he has been a better pitcher.
As far as I'm concerned, ERA is the most important stat for a pitcher. there job is to not allow runs. Weaver has significant advantage in ERA. And he's also done a much better job of keeping runners off the base paths.
Verlander pitches in the worst division in baseball.
Weaver pitches in arguably the best division in baseball. Verlander gets to face the Twins, Royals and Indians. Weaver has to face the Rangers and A's.
And knock the win loss record all you want, but there are a lot of writers with votes who put stock into the w/l record. Weaver's 15-1 record looks a lot prettier than Verlander's 12-7 mark.
The big advantage in WHIP, ERA, pitching in a tougher division and win-loss record gives Weaver the advantage.
Argos. said 08/12, 04:59 PM
Weaver is facing good teams? Not really in terms of offense. You mention Oakland, who ranks second last in the AL in runs scored. The only team below them, another AL West team in Seattle. The only good offense in the AL West Weaver has had to face, Texas, he has faced only one more time than Verlander has faced them.
Verlander has faced the top 3 offences in the majors (NYY, Bos, Texas) in 8 starts! Weaver only 5 starts. Verlander faced top 10 offences in 10 starts, compared to Weaver in only 5 starts. Verlander has actually faced much stiffer offences.
A pitcher can only control so much, and only have so much of an impact. The defense plays a massive role. A good defense gets to balls that an average defense wouldn't and makes outs that would be hits, a bad defense does the opposite.
You don't need to look at sabermetrics like UZR or DRS to know that the Angels have one of the best defences in baseball and the Tigers have the worst defence in the AL. The eye-test proves it, just watch them play or even just the highlights.
Trout, Hunter, Pujols, etc. are gold glove good and save runs.
Fielder, Miggy, Boesch, and Berry are terrible and cost runs.
CuntryBlumpkin said 08/13, 12:58 PM
Weaver is facing better teams. Maybe not in terms of offense, but he is winning against better competition than Verlander. Oakland has a wildcard spot as of now, and Texas is one of the best teams in the American League.
Verlander gets to face 3 of the worst 4 teams in the AL record wise in his division, and still has a far worse record than Weaver, who stands at 15-2 now.
Weaver leads the AL in wins, winning percentage, ERA, WHIP and he gives up the fewest hits per 9 innings. You might think those sabermetrics mean something, but in reality, they don't. Show me how you calculate WAR and we might talk. Weaver leads in the league in every category that people with Cy Young votes look at when voting for a Cy Young winner except strikeouts.
You can't knock Weaver because Detroit is a poor defensive team.
Verland has had a very good season. He'll definitely finish in the top 3 in voting, but in the end the guy with the most wins, the best record, the lowest ERA and the lowest WHIP will rightfully be voted as the 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner.
Argos. said 08/13, 05:30 PM
Oakland is good because of their pitching. KC sucks because of their pitching. Weaver is not facing Oakland's pitching. Verlander is not facing KC's pitching.
It doesn't matter for these two when comparing their competition the record of their opponent. They only face the batters, so the offense is all that matters.
And you can add another start for Weaver against the worst AL offense, after pitching against Seattle last night, and giving up 2 HR and 3 runs...
And wins? Haven't we (baseball fans) got over this already? A pitcher does not control wins.
I'm not knocking Weaver because Detroit has a terrible defense, I'm knocking Weaver because he has a great defense behind him and I'm pushing Verlander up because of his terrible defense playing behind him.
Verlander has pitched nearly 45 more innings. He has given the Tigers nearly five complete games worth of more innings of terrific baseball, this should play a massive role why he is the Cy.
Verlander is also K'ing way more batters, perhaps thanks to having to because he can't trust his **** defense to pitch to contact. Strikeouts are valuable.
But in the end, Verlander is simply pitching better.
CuntryBlumpkin said 08/14, 09:46 AM
So you're gonna nitpick one start for Weaver against Seattle? How about this. Verlander's only game against Seattle this season, he went 6 innings and allowed 3 runs. Weaver went 7 and allowed 3. So Weaver's game against Seattle was better than Verlander's. Two can play at that game.
The fact is Weaver is facing better teams, and is winning more games and a much better percentage of his games. You can knock the win-loss record all you want, but Weaver has given his team a chance to win in all but 1 of his starts, and he's won 15 of them.
Had Weaver not missed 5 starts earlier in the season, the innings count would be right on par with Verlanders. It's not like Weaver is done after 5. He goes deep into games as well.
Why knock Weaver because of his defense? There's nothing wrong with pitching to what you have. If you have a great defense, use it. A groundout is just as good as a strikeout, and a lot of times, it's better.
Verlander has had another great season, but you can't ignore the significant advantages that Weaver has in all categories other than strikeouts and innings pitched.
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