- 09/07/2012, 01:59AM ET
JimJ77 Can't make it up said 09/07, 02:00 AM
Jones vs Belfort
Most people aren't giving Vitor much of a chance here. I give him a better chance than most. He has some of the fastest, most powerful hands MMA has ever seen. He also has good wrestling, and his a black belt in BJJ. However, I think Jones clinches, takes Vitor down, and TKO's him. I'll say 2nd round TKO for Jones.
Benavidez vs Mighty Mouse Johnson
Benavidez is better everywhere. He has better boxing and more power in his hands. He's got slightly better wrestling and a better sub game. I'm not sure anyone finishes this fight, so I'm going with Benavidez becomes the 1st flyweight champ in UFC history via UD.
Bisping vs Stann
Bisping has better technical kickboxing and has a better wrestling and ground game than Stann. Stann has awesome power and can catch Bisping for a KO but I think Bisping avoids it and outclasses Stann to a UD.
Hammil vs Matyushenko
Matyushenko is a solid gatekeeper with good wrestling and decent standup. Hammil is done IMO. Matyushenko via UD.
Swanson vs Oliveira
Oliveira is a beast at 145. I see him taking Cub down and winning via RNC in rd 1.
TnerB57 said 09/07, 09:38 PM
Ok, Jimbo, good to TD against you again, and good luck!
My initial thought when I saw this TD was that I couldn't find a viable change. But, after walking away from it and giving it some thought, I think I do indeed have one for you.
I wholeheartedly agree with all your picks, save one:
I'm taking Brian Stann over Michael Bisping, by TKO.
You say Bisping has a better ground game than Stann, but that doesn't really tell us much. Bisping averages less than two takedown attempts per fight, and I'm pretty sure most of those were in his early fights. He's pretty much become a stand-up fighter recently, doing a lot of boxing. Plus Stann is in Jackson's camp, so you have to know his ground game is improving steadily.
This definitely works in Stann's favor, and ours, because this is very likely going to be a stand-up war. I think Stann's power and brawling style will be the difference. The drop down to 185 has worked very nicely for him. I think Bisping will have a hard time avoiding the Stann swarm for an entire 3 rounds, and will get caught and beat down.
JimJ77 Can't make it up said 09/09, 05:40 PM
Bisping doesn't take a lot of fights to the ground because he has a technical kickboxing advantage over all of his opponents, and he'll have the same advantage over Brian Stann.
Stann has never faced anyone who has the standup skill of Bisping, and he won't be able to challenge Bisping on the mat.
The reason why he won't be able to challenge Bisping on the mat is because Bisping is a better wrestler than Stann and Bisping will dictate where the fight takes place.
We've seen Bisping take down very skilled grapplers such as Sonnen, Wanderlie, and Kang. We've see him hold down opponents and use his ground and pound while avoiding subs. He's never been subbed in his 26 fight MMA career.
Because Bisping is better technically on the feet and better on the mat, this limits Stann's only path of victory to catching Bisping with a fight changing shot and winning via TKO/KO.
I don't see this happening. Bisping has only been KO'd once and that was to Henderson. The problem for Stann? He's not even close to the fighter that Henderson is and Bisping has since corrected his mistake of circling into his opponents power.
Bisping is just a better fighter than Stann and he'll win
TnerB57 said 09/11, 04:46 AM
"Bisping doesn't take a lot of fights to the ground because he has a technical kickboxing advantage over all of his opponents, and he'll have the same advantage over Brian Stann."
This is going to be Bisping's undoing. I suppose you are saying then, and probably rightly so, that Bisping has/had the technical kickboxing advantage over Hendo. However, that did not necessarily give him an overall advantage, did it? Hendo waited, while Bisping tried to do what Bisping does, and outbox him. Then BAM! Lights out.
Stann has very good power in both hands, and this is accented by his move to middleweight. He is a very big 185 pounder in the cage. Since coming to middleweight, Stann's only loss has been to Chael Sonnen, and only a pure wrestler like Sonnen is going to be able to bring Stann down. Bisping hasn't got the size or strength to threaten Stann on the ground.
This has all the making of a Fight of the Night. And in the end, it will be Stann's aggressiveness that will earn him the bonus for Knockout of the Night.
When you change your bet, Jim, I expect 10% of your winnings. You're welcome.
JimJ77 Can't make it up said 09/11, 04:48 PM
Technically Bisping had the advantage against Hendo, but we went over that. Stann is no Hendo and Bisping has since corrected his circling into his opponents power.
You can't assume that because Hendo KO'd Bisping so will Stann. I can simply say Cantwell TKO'd Stann and he's not 1 tenth of the fighter Bisping is.
Stann is a big 185er but that will have no affect on him keeping the fight standing. Lets not forget, Bisping has fought guys like Rashad Evans at 205 and was able to take them down. He sure as hell will take Stann down if he wants to.
Stann has always struggled with wrestlers and in this fight he'll struggle once again.
Bisping will keep the fight standing and will have better kickboxing and will be the faster fighter. If he feels threatened at all, he will look to clinch up with Stann and drag him to the mat.
From there Stann will be like a turtle on his back as Bisping rains down some nice ground and pound. Bisping is a much stronger fighter than you're giving him credit for and he's very slick on the mat. Stann is simply outclassed in this area.
Its hard seeing where Stann holds an edge. All he has is a punchers chance. I don't like those odds.
TnerB57 said 09/13, 02:11 AM
Sorry for being so late, Jim. An unscheduled trip to the hospital.
Anyway, you keep talking about "edge" all over the place. Well, I'm not buying it. Every time Bisping goes up against a top shelf fighter (Rashad, Hendo, Wanderlei, Sonnen), he has lost. His "superior kickboxing and ground game" apparently only applies when he's fighting middling opponents.
And I guarantee you Brian Stann is no middling opponent. Against common opponents, both lost to Sonnen, and both defeated Chris Leben. The big difference I see is that Bisping had to go the distance to beat Leben, while Stann obliterated him in the first round.
Stann more than has the wherewithal to fight a three round tactical battle, and I definitely give him the power "edge" over Bisping here. Bisping has a flashy looking record, but he has plateaued at "contender, but not top contender" status.
Stann, with his move to middleweight, is on the rise here, and this victory over Bisping will put him one step closer to a chance at dethroning the great Anderson Silva.
Good Luck Jim, legit TDs are too rare these days.
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