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- 09/14/2012, 12:37AM ET
Upset of the week. Pick 1 game.
PCH-R. Barber best BUC eva said 09/14, 12:37 AM
sorry, this might not be popular.
I got the Buccaneers over tha G-Men.
Bucs looked good against Cam. They have playmakers in their secondary. Doug Martin! You're like "who?". Yeah, he's the rookie outta Boise St., that took over Lagarrette Blount's job. Martin had damn near a hundred yards rushing, and I BELIEVE, could be wrong, 2 td's. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are very talented, and need a BIG GAME LIKE THIS. I see Freeman staying calm for the most part, and winning a close and ugly defensive battle.
TheBestAround said 09/16, 12:14 AM
You picked a good one, but i think the giants are gonna be able to pull that one off easy. I think the browns and bengals is the only upset of the week. the offense might not be too strong with a rookie qb and rb, but they a solid defene and i think they can stop them. joe haden on aj green will be a good match up.but i think that he can pull it off and the browns win by a field goal.
PCH-R. Barber best BUC eva said 09/16, 05:16 AM
I just added Giants' D to my fantasy team, and i'm starting them, so i don't feel comfortable backing up my previous remarks.
I like the Giants to win.
My upset of the day.. Jags over Houston... sorry to use two, but you know how fantasy rolls
TheBestAround said 09/16, 12:17 PM
Im still gonna hold to my original argument because i feel the browns defense will shut down that bengals offense. Andy Dalton is gonna have a hard time throwing the football mainly, because of the fact that they're secondary is just to good. The only problem the browns are gonna have is scoring. They might get a touchdown or two, and a couple field goals though, i believe. so i think the browns beat the bengals by a field goal.
PCH-R. Barber best BUC eva said 09/16, 05:54 PM
It's too early to predict nfl for me, every week thus far I've been baffled on a couple games.
TheBestAround said 09/17, 10:00 PM
Well, it appears that the Browns have lost. So, it looks like you win, lol.
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Comments (42) Add A Comment
Best upsets I have is Baltimore over Philadelphia and Indianapolis over Minnesota... Yes, I know they might be considered upsets, but Baltimore & Indianapolis are underdogs according to Yahoo! so it'll be an upset, technically...
Dyhard is a…
Green Bay, WI
Total Comments (21182)
Baltimore over Philly's an upset? What world is yahoo from?
PCH-R. Barber best…
Total Comments (6897)
Indy could get beat by Minnesota. A.P.. barely rolled outta the gates last week and had two td's.
PCH-R. Barber best…
Total Comments (6897)
If Yahoo is using the Vegas lines Bmore is a 2.5 point dog to Philly in Philly. Generally the home teams are given 3 points just for being the home team. Plus the betting lines aren't always the best way to judge who is the true underdog. They use the line to spread out the money and Philly always bets heavy, I wouldn't use the line as a way to judge a true inderdog or favorite in this case.
jermur613
Total Comments (1546)
panthers over saints
cobracommander
Total Comments (9308)
Jets.
YankeesFan
Total Comments (14993)
Seattle wins by bobble over Cowboys (but I hope not) IMO.
|
Total Comments (3797)
I hope your right but no Revis could mean trouble against the Pitt WRs.
Hey Hey Hey...It's…
Total Comments (230)
stl over wash, det over sf
kalbrecht17
Hallock , MN
Total Comments (188)
It's not just Yahoo. The actual Las Vegas spread is Philadelphia by 2.5...
DO_WORK_SON
Niceville, FL
Total Comments (137)
The spread isn't always the best way to judge under dogs and favorites, especially in a game like this. Vegas' job is to make money, that is what influences the line more than anything.
jermur613
Total Comments (1546)
I'm not sure... Was also surprised to see that game having Philadelphia listed as the favorites.
Dyhard is a…
Green Bay, WI
Total Comments (21182)
What are you talking about?
When someone says, "Arizona is a 13.5 point underdog to New England this week," they're referring to the spread. If a team is favored in the point spread, they're not an underdog. The point spread is what determines underdogs and favorites. Unless you have your own formula that you would like to share...
DO_WORK_SON
Niceville, FL
Total Comments (137)
Stanford over USC
OlderthanDirt
Total Comments (2091)
Do you have any idea of how Vegas actually works? If not then I'm just wasting my time. I'm sure someone who is much more articulate than me could do a better job of explainging this to you but I will try.
Vegas determines the spread by NOTHING else other than an attempt to make money. In a game, that on paper should be a close game like the Ravens and Eagles, the spread is used to influence how people place their bets. Philadelphia fans are among the heaviest betters in the country. If all the money is getting laid on the Eagles, and the Eagles do win, Vegas loses money. Therefore while many people would consider the Ravens the favorite, Vegas will make them a 2.5 dog to try and get more money laid on them.
As for your NE - AZ example, no **** the the Pats are the favorite not only in Vegas but in anyone who watches footballs mind. But in this case also, if you think Vegas thinks NE will only win by 14 pts, you're an idiot. However, if they spotted AZ say 21.5 points and everyone in the country bet AZ, and the Cards only lost by 20, Vegas again would lose their shirt.
Point spreads are used to influence they way people bet. That's why in the middle of the week you will see lines fluctuate. Do you think Vegas actually changes their minds mid week as to how many points a team will win by? No, its to try and get some money bet the other way because one team was getting bet too heavily. And if the game doesnt go the way Vegas wants(because after all any given sunday and all that.) they lose their shirt.
So, while looking at only the spread is a good way for a numb nuts who doesn't watch football to identify the favorite and under dog in the larger spread games, the closer the spread doesn't always mean just because one team is laying points to the other, they're a favorite.
Personally, I believe the correct line would be closer to Baltimore -3.5 If I were to take bets though, if they didn't cover that, I would go bankrupt because people bet the Eagles too heavily especially compared to the Ravens.
I have no secret formula. The key is to actually pay attention to the games. Point spreads, just like stats don't tell the whole story and if thats all you rely on to make decisions, you're doomed.
I hope this makes sense. I really can't spell it out any clearer. If you still don't get it, talk to wwj, (un), grue, yoda or one of the other people that do a better job of getting to their point.
jermur613
Total Comments (1546)
Baltimore -3.5*
The rest probably is confusing too, but bottom line is, spreads like stats don't mean squat.
jermur613
Total Comments (1546)
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