- 10/03/2012, 11:00PM ET
YankeesFan said 10/03, 11:00 PM
So now that the playoffs are set, it seems like as good a time as any to predict how it will all play out. Watch and learn, and be subjected to my homerness.
Rangers over Orioles
Tigers over A's in 5
Yankees over Rangers in 4
Yankees over Tigers in 6
Braves over Cards
Reds over Giants in 5
Braves over Nats in 4
Reds over Braves in 7
Yankees over Reds in 6
Yes, I'm being a homer by picking the Yankees to win the world series, but it's not that implausible.
Not that much more left to say here, don't want to waste 600 characters arguing something my opponent might end up agreeing with.
JimJ77 Can't make it up said 10/04, 11:41 AM
Good luck jamoke.
Rangers over Orioles - I wanted to pick the O's because the Rangers are tumbling, but I think they get it done primarily because Darvish has been very good lately.
Tigers over A's in 5 - I really wanted to go A's here, but in a short series with Verlander I have to side with Detroit.
Yankees over Rangers in 4 - Yanks being able to set their rotation gives them the advantage.
Tigers over Yanks in 7 - Tigers are playing very good baseball heading in and have a great balance of pitching and hitting. I think Verlander gets the ball in game 7 and gets it done.
Braves over Cards
Reds over Giants in 5 - Toughest series for me to pick. In the end I see the Reds lineup being the difference.
Nats over Braves in 4 - Medlen is a stud but the Braves just don't have enough after him to get it done.
Reds over Nats in 6 - Gotta back the Reds here. With Strasburg I think the Nats go to the WS, without him, they go home.
Reds over Tigers in 7 - Really think this will be a great series. I just think because both teams are so evenly matched the Reds get it done because they'll be at home with NL rules and its their year.
YankeesFan said 10/04, 07:53 PM
We agree on a lot of things, but the differences are the winner of the Tigers-Yankees ALCS, Nats-Braves, and the WS winner. I'll start this argument with the Tigers-Yanks argument.
The Yankees would have homefield advantage in this hypothetical series, and with the format for the ALCS being normal (not like the screwy LDS round), that could actually be a significant factor. NYY went 51-30 at home, the best home record in the MLB, while Detroit finished below .500 at 38-43 on the road, the worst by 6 games of any division winner.
Part of the Yankees team that gets overlooked is their pitching, which will be fully healthy and strong for the first time in a while heading into the playoffs. CC is back to ace form with dominating performances his last few times out, Kuroda has given the Yankees more than they could've hoped for with 16 wins and a 3.32 ERA, and then there's Andy Pettitte, statistically the most winningest playoff pitcher ever, who finished the year with an ERA well below 3.
I'll spare everyone the Yankee talk next argument, and focus mainly on the Nats-Braves because under your WS, I'd pick the Reds to win too.
Bring it, Jimmy Biebenegger.
JimJ77 Can't make it up said 10/05, 12:24 AM
While homefield is an advantage, there are many other factors which are far more important.
What I believe wins in the playoffs is pitching and timely hitting. These are the two key factors in how a playoff series while shake out.
The Tigers have the better pitching staff. Verlander is the best starter between both teams. They also will throw Fister and Scherzer out there, and both finished with an ERA under 3.75.
On the other hand I think the Yankees have question marks with their starters. Sabathia had a good year overall but he has shown some slippage with his highest ERA since 2005 and lowest win total since 2006. Kuroda had an ERA of 4.71 since Sept 1st, and I have no idea what a 40 year old Pettitte will do.
The Yankees have also proven to not be clutch at the plate. They have a meager .256 average with runners in scoring position. The Tigers led MLB with a .286 avg. With RISP and 2 outs it gets even worse for the Yankees. How's .226 sound? The Tigers were #2 in MLB with a .265 avg.
The Tigers have the better pitching and the much better clutch hitting and that will propel them into the WS. The Yankees ineptitude in the latter will be their downfall.
YankeesFan said 10/05, 03:42 PM
Though I'd love to refute much of your last argument, I can't go this whole TD ignoring other changes besides Yankees-Tigers, so now for Nats-Braves:
The Nationals have stumbled to the finish line after shutting down Strasburg, going 9-10 down the stretch, while the Braves, with not much to play for with the first WC spot all but locked up, went 13-5 down their similar stretch run.
The Braves will be energized to give Chipper one more deep playoff run in his final year, but to say they don't have enough after Medlen is just wrong. They have a legitimate Cy Young candidate in Craig Kimbrell, and combined with Johnny Venters, it's unlikely the Braves will blow a late lead. Tim Hudson had a solid year with 16 wins and a mid 3 ERA, while the team as a whole had the 5th best ERA in the MLB.
The Nats have been a great story this year, and the stats largely seem to suggest they're a better team than the Braves, but this team lacks a lot of playoff experience.
I'm not giving up on the TD, but I'm down pretty big and this is more of a gut feeling pick than anything else, so I'll end it here. 'Tis all.
JimJ77 Can't make it up said 10/05, 05:31 PM
Washington will have the advantage of setting their rotation. Atlanta is throwing Medlan out there today so, he won't be able to start until most likely game 3 of their series with the Nats.
The Nats will be able to setup Gonzalez and Zimmerman is games 1 and 2. Both guys posted sub 3 ERA's and Gonzalez led the NL with 21 wins.
Kimbrell won't matter if the Braves are down at the end of games.
The Nats also have the more dynamic offense. They can hit for power which is shown by their 192 HR's, 2nd in the NL, and 45 more than Atlanta. They hit for avg. which was .261, 4th in the NL, and 14 points higher than Atlanta, and they get on base at a higher rate.
Bottom line is Washington is the more talented team overall. They can pitch, evidenced by their MLB leading 3.33 ERA, they can hit for average, hit for power, run the bases, and play solid defense.
This is not to dismiss Atlanta, they've had a very good year and are a solid club, but I feel that they are overmatched here. When you combine the Nats advantage of setting their rotation with having the deeper pitching staff and more balanced lineup, its difficult to see Atlanta winning this series.
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