- 12/06/2012, 11:20AM ET
JimJ77 Can't make it up said 12/06, 11:20 AM
Nate Diaz vs Benson for UFC LW Championship
This will be a great fight but I see Diaz becoming the new champ. He's really hit his stride, and it will continue here. He has the best BJJ at 155 and the best boxing. I look for Diaz to use his high volume striking, hurt Benson wit some shots. Benson will go for a desperate takedown attempt and get got in a guillotine. Diaz 4th round sub.
Shogun Rua vs Alexander Gustafsson
Wanted to take Rua here but he's starting to slow down. I see Gus using distance and outboxing Shogun over 3 rounds. Gus might throw in a takedown or two to pile up points. Gustafsson wins via UD.
BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald
I'm a big believer in Rory becoming a future champ, but he still has some holes in his game. Most notably is standup defense. Penn has fantastic boxing, and I think he catches Rory with a massive shot, puts him down, takes his back, gets hooks in, and locks up a rear naked choke. Penn wins via 1st round sub.
Mike Swick vs Matt Brown
If this was Swick's first fight back I would take Brown. But Swick knocked the cage rust off in his last fight and he's better every where than Brown. Mike Swick wins via 2nd round swickotine.
Michael P Hunt said 12/06, 11:54 AM
I will pick three different instead of 2 - so we don't split the ones we have different. And I'll provide a method/round of finish for all four fights.
I like Nate Diaz - at 155 again - he looks reborn. His striking is off the charts in my opinion. And his BJJ is amazing. That said, Benson is a large LW - with decent standup - and powerful wrestling. Benson is also very hard to submit from what I've seen/read. I look for Henderson to use his size to impose his will - and grapple his way to a UD.
Rua is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get. I like Gus - and think he has a bright future. But after the close loss to Hendo, and the win over Vera - Rua needs this fight to remain in contention for a title rematch - so I predict we see Rua come out strong - tag Gus early - and finish him via TKO in the 2nd.
BJ Penn is one of my favourite fighters. And he looks UBER motivated for this fight. That said, while I think Rory still has a lot to learn - I look for Rory to weather an early storm by BJ - and use his superior size to control BJ for the final two rounds and win a UD.
Swick subs Brown in the 3rd for the win
JimJ77 Can't make it up said 12/06, 12:25 PM
I'll start with the title fight here and finish with the last 2 fights for my 3rd arg.
While Benson is a big LW fighter, its nothing Diaz has not dealt with in the past. He's fought big WW's in Kim, MacDonald, and even a 178lbs Markham. He's fought maybe the biggest LW on the planet Maynard twice and probably should've won both fights.
Benson has some bigtime issues in this fight. He doesn't want to stand with Diaz for too long because Diaz will wade forward and throw combos all day. Diaz holds a big edge in boxing. He will wear Benson down if it stays standing.
If Benson decides to take it down, which will be easier said than done because Diaz has shown big improvements in his wrestling and judo, he could easily get tapped. While Henderson has shown good submission defense he has never fought anyone with the guard that Diaz possesses. Diaz could tap him with a guillotine when Henderson shoots in, he could tap him with a leg triangle or arm bar from bottom.
Benson has one path to victory. Win a decision. He won't hurt Diaz standing and he won't submit Diaz. Diaz on the other hand can win this fight in a multitude of ways. I can't back a fighter with 1 path to victory.
Michael P Hunt said 12/07, 10:39 AM
The flaw in your logic is that by all rights - Nate has one way to win this fight. And that's to keep it standing. Nate has superior boxing. Benson has some nice kickboxing - but alas - Nate's reach and aggressive come forward approach will give Benson problems on the feet. I grant you that.
I don't grant you that Benson is going to have trouble getting Nate down. For a couple reasons. Benson is large and strong, and he's going to get Nate down. Just like Rory did. Or DHK did. Just like Benson did to Miller - who has better TDD than Nate. Period.
Nate isn't going to submit Ben. Ben has been submitted once in his career, as many times as Nate has been submitted. And that was in Ben's 3rd pro fight. Ben's BJJ defense is highly underrated - and he won't submit.
In a battle of two guys that are going the distance - I'll take the champion - who is stronger - has fought in many more 5 round fights and is going to defend his title.
JimJ77 Can't make it up said 12/07, 12:56 PM
Diaz can easily submit Benson. Moving on.
I'm a big Shogun fan and hope you're right, but I don't really see it. His mobility is lacking at this point. Gus will move in and out and outbox Shogun over the course of 3 rounds. Shogun has also shown that he tends to gas in fights, which will only limit his mobility even more.
Gus has also been training with Phil Davis on his wrestling, so I think Gus will keep this fight standing and pick apart a gassing Shogun for a UD. It sucks but Shogun has been through too many wars.
Rory will have difficulty standing in front of Penn because Penn is the superior boxer. We've seen guys hurt Rory standing and Rory has always fallen back on taking his opponents down. The problem with that is Penn has ridiculous takedown defense. So Rory will find himself with quite the dilemma.
Rory will have to hope he can drain Penn's cardio by the second round and hope he can take advantage of a gassing Penn and win the lat two rounds. But as you've even stated, Penn looks ultra motivated for this fight. Meaning, he will have better cardio than he has in his past few fights.
We've seen a motivated Penn against Sanchez and Florian. Penn wins.
Michael P Hunt said 12/07, 08:05 PM
Moving on, you're backing a guy who didn't even know the weight limit for a title fight. Good luck with that. Based on the lack of a gameplan Nick had for Carlos, and Jake had for GSP, I would guess that Nate is going to walk into the cage and simply tap the mat.
Gus has fought exactly one top ten guy. And he got owned. Gus can't finish Rua (if Hendo can't - Gus can't) so Rua has 15 minutes to TKO Gus. Which he will. I mean, when Phil Davis demolishes you - you don't have a shot against Rua.
I love BJ Penn - and think he can end it in the first. If not - he'll gas like he did against Fitch and Diaz. Rory is just too big - he will be walking into the cage around 195 from what I've read - and he's going to grapple Penn just like GSP did - until Penn's arms are toast - and then it's all over. Penn won't be finished, but he will be controlled for a UD. Penn WAS motivated for his second fight with GSP.
To the four people who voted before the final arguments were made - kudos. You are the reason why Fan Nation is on its last legs. Seriously - voting without being informed is laughable.
I will win at least 2 of the three we are different on. Bank on it.
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