Throwdowns > Closed

JimJ77 Can't make it up said 12/06, 11:20 AM
Nate Diaz vs Benson for UFC LW Championship

This will be a great fight but I see Diaz becoming the new champ. He's really hit his stride, and it will continue here. He has the best BJJ at 155 and the best boxing. I look for Diaz to use his high volume striking, hurt Benson wit some shots. Benson will go for a desperate takedown attempt and get got in a guillotine. Diaz 4th round sub.

Shogun Rua vs Alexander Gustafsson

Wanted to take Rua here but he's starting to slow down. I see Gus using distance and outboxing Shogun over 3 rounds. Gus might throw in a takedown or two to pile up points. Gustafsson wins via UD.

BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald

I'm a big believer in Rory becoming a future champ, but he still has some holes in his game. Most notably is standup defense. Penn has fantastic boxing, and I think he catches Rory with a massive shot, puts him down, takes his back, gets hooks in, and locks up a rear naked choke. Penn wins via 1st round sub.

Mike Swick vs Matt Brown

If this was Swick's first fight back I would take Brown. But Swick knocked the cage rust off in his last fight and he's better every where than Brown. Mike Swick wins via 2nd round swickotine.

JimJ77 Can't make it up said 12/06, 12:25 PM
I'll start with the title fight here and finish with the last 2 fights for my 3rd arg.

While Benson is a big LW fighter, its nothing Diaz has not dealt with in the past. He's fought big WW's in Kim, MacDonald, and even a 178lbs Markham. He's fought maybe the biggest LW on the planet Maynard twice and probably should've won both fights.

Benson has some bigtime issues in this fight. He doesn't want to stand with Diaz for too long because Diaz will wade forward and throw combos all day. Diaz holds a big edge in boxing. He will wear Benson down if it stays standing.

If Benson decides to take it down, which will be easier said than done because Diaz has shown big improvements in his wrestling and judo, he could easily get tapped. While Henderson has shown good submission defense he has never fought anyone with the guard that Diaz possesses. Diaz could tap him with a guillotine when Henderson shoots in, he could tap him with a leg triangle or arm bar from bottom.

Benson has one path to victory. Win a decision. He won't hurt Diaz standing and he won't submit Diaz. Diaz on the other hand can win this fight in a multitude of ways. I can't back a fighter with 1 path to victory.

JimJ77 Can't make it up said 12/07, 12:56 PM
Diaz can easily submit Benson. Moving on.

I'm a big Shogun fan and hope you're right, but I don't really see it. His mobility is lacking at this point. Gus will move in and out and outbox Shogun over the course of 3 rounds. Shogun has also shown that he tends to gas in fights, which will only limit his mobility even more.

Gus has also been training with Phil Davis on his wrestling, so I think Gus will keep this fight standing and pick apart a gassing Shogun for a UD. It sucks but Shogun has been through too many wars.

Rory will have difficulty standing in front of Penn because Penn is the superior boxer. We've seen guys hurt Rory standing and Rory has always fallen back on taking his opponents down. The problem with that is Penn has ridiculous takedown defense. So Rory will find himself with quite the dilemma.

Rory will have to hope he can drain Penn's cardio by the second round and hope he can take advantage of a gassing Penn and win the lat two rounds. But as you've even stated, Penn looks ultra motivated for this fight. Meaning, he will have better cardio than he has in his past few fights.

We've seen a motivated Penn against Sanchez and Florian. Penn wins.