- 02/20/2013, 06:24PM ET
JimJ77 Best in the World! said 02/20, 06:24 PM
Rousey vs Carmouche
Rousey will do what Rousey does. That's clinch up with Carmouche, use her Judo to get Carmouche to the mat and work for an arm bar. Rousey takes Carmouch's are home with her via 1st round armbar.
Henderson vs Machida
I love Henderson but I don't see where he wins this fight. Machida is too fast and too skilled for Dan at this point. Machida will control distance and pick Dan apart. Machida outstrikes Henderson for a clear decision.
Faber vs Menjivar
Faber will utilize his wrestling and get Menjivar to the mat whenever he wants. On the feet, Faber is very fast and has considerable power. I just don't see how Menjivar wins this fight. I originally thought Faber wins an easy decision but think he taps Ivan in round 2.
Neer vs McGee
Neer is a tough fighter who fights aggressively. McGee will have to withstand the initial onslaught and I think he does and uses his wrestling to wear Neer out for a decision win.
Koscheck vs Lawler
If Kos implements his superior wrestling game he will win this fight with ease. If he decides to stand with Lawler he probably takes a nap. I think Kos fights smart and grind a fading Lawler out for a decision win.
TnerB57 said 02/21, 05:09 AM
Alright, Jimbo, here goes.
You are correct, I am picking Carmouche.
I really do like all your picks. But, none of them is a true gimme, IMO, save the impending armbar that Miss Rousey is sure to provide.
Hendo could catch lightning in a bottle and KO Machida, Menjivar could surprise Faber, and Neer could swarm McGee and take the win. These things could happen, but I don't think they will.
Where I will disagree with you is in the Lawler/Koscheck bout. Lawler is coming back to the division he probably should never have left. He is going to be leaner, faster, and still pack a mighty punch.
I've seen marked improvement in Lawler's takedown defense in recent fights, and even though his recent record has not been stellar, this move to 170 will definitely work in his favor. I believe he will be able to keep the fight standing, and if he does, he will certainly be able to outstrike Koscheck, very likely handing him his second KO loss of his career.
Very glad to see Robbie back in UFC. He is the fighter that got me watching MMA in the first place.
Good luck Jim!
JimJ77 Best in the World! said 02/21, 12:30 PM
Lawler can most definitely KO any fighter on the planet because the guy hits like a truck, but I don't see Koscheck giving Lawler any opportunity for that to happen.
Lawler is 3-5 in his last 8 fights and has not shown to be the same fighter he once was. I have more questions about his cut to 170 than you do. Lawler has been fighting at 185 for a very long time now and if anything I think the weight cut to 170 will diminish his power and cardio.
Irregardless of those factors the matchup is not good for him. Lawler has struggled against guys who can wrestle lately. Not sure where you see the marked improvement.
Tim Kennedy took him down 5 times and Jacare too him down 4 times in their fights. The problem for Lawler is Koscheck is by far a superior wrestler to those two guys. Hell, even Larkin and Amagov took Lawler down.
Koscheck will simply take Lawler down at will and drain his cardio. This will take steam off Lawler's punches setting him up to get dominated for the duration of the fight.
I'm not sure Koscheck finishes Lawler but he will completely dominate him. Look for Koscheck to wear down, beat up, and frustrate Lawler for 3 rounds.
TnerB57 said 02/22, 04:53 AM
A couple of reasons I think Lawler will win.
He really only has to prepare one way for Koscheck, and that is takedown defense. He succeeds in that, and the fight is his. Lawler is clearly the better striker here, and keeping the fight standing is his key to victory. If he's smart, and I hope he is, he is, even now, studying film and learning all Koscheck's tells. Stop the takedown, and Koscheck is toast. Let us not forget that Lawler has some very capable knee-striking ability that can put a would be tackler in la-la land in very short order.
The other thing I am banking on is that Koscheck could well be damaged goods. Will his back allow him to shoot for takedowns and wrestle the way he is accustomed to? Everybody thinks that Lawler is being served up for a beatdown on the ground, but I am not convinced.
I am confident that Lawler will come in and thwart Koscheck's game plan and beat the tar out of him within 2 rounds. Hell, I may even send you some money to put on Ruthless and split the winnings with you.
JimJ77 Best in the World! said 02/22, 02:04 PM
Lawler can work on his takedown defense all he wants but working on your takedown defense for an 8 week training camp does not mean you will be able to stop a takedown of a high level wrestler the caliber of Koscheck.
In fact it takes years and years of drilling takedown defense to have even a remote chance of stopping a high level wrestler's shot.
Lawler has had plenty of opponents who are good wrestlers and he has been unable to stop their takedowns.
Koscheck is the best wrestler Lawler will have faced and once again he will be unable to stop Koscheck from taking him down.
I don't see Koscheck being damaged goods. He lost a close split decision to Hendricks in his last fight and Hendricks is on the verge of a title shot. In fact, a lot of people thought Koscheck won that fight.
Lawler is no Hendricks. Not even close. I'd venture to say Hendricks hits as hard if not harder than Lawler and Koscheck withstood Hendricks punches.
This fight will be much easier for Kos because unlike Hendricks, Lawler isn't a good wrestler.
Koscheck will takedown Lawler with ease. Look for Lawler to gas rather quickly after his tough weigh cut to 170. Kos wins an easy decision.
TnerB57 said 02/23, 03:44 AM
I realize I'm in the minority here in predicting a Lawler victory, but mark my words: Lawler will defeat Koscheck inside of two rounds, and viciously.
Lawler is going to make the most of this opportunity in the UFC. He absolutely has to. He will be as big or bigger than Koscheck when they step into the octagon, and I am certain that ATT has done a fine job of preparing him for this fight.
His hands and knees are going to get the job done, trust me on that.
That said, I'm cutting this short, and am looking forward to an outstanding card of fights.
Good Luck, Jim, and I hope you pull in the $ tonight!
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