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  • 05/01/2013, 05:40AM ET

Very early guesses at the top 5 2014 NFL draft picks.

Marlins Fan (156-78-31) vs kalbrecht17 (17-11-5)
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I got...

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
2. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
3. Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
4. Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama
5. Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame


No Johnny Football. Even if he comes out I don't think he'll go top five. The boy's fairly small and his game just seems college-y, for lack of a better word. He doesn't seem like the type of college QB that becomes a good NFL QB, I guess is what I'm trying to say.

If this somehow works out and becomes an actual throwdown then consider me surprised but please try to make at least two good changes. Argue in the second and third.


Here's who's selecting in my top 5 next year:

1. Jacksonville
2. Oakland
3. Arizona
4. NYJ
5. Cleveland


Draft order:
1. Its really a toss-up between Clowney and Bridgewater, but I'd say they go Clowney since he appears at this time to be a once in a generation type freak.
2. Oakland could go with a QB if Wilson looks like he isn't going to pan out, but I'd say they go with Matthews to shore up the O line and give Wilson another year.
3. Arizona- need a QB and Bridgewater fits the bill
4. The Jets reload the line some more and take Lewan. Could also go Marquise Lee but I'd say the safer pick is in Lewan especially with Boldin, Maclin, James Jones, and Decker set to be FA's.
5. Cleveland will realize that Weeden isn't going to be the answer and takes Boyd.
Remove Kouandjio and sub in Taylor Lewan, OT, Mich
Remove Nix III and sub Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson

The other 3 are pretty dang hard to debate. And I doubt Manziel comes out since this looks like there'll be some really solid QB prospects that are more proto-typical passers.

Have at it.


Can't argue with the teams you have chosen as top 5 selectees. Looks pretty logical to me, but if I were to make any changes I'd take out Oakland and Arizona and replace them with Miami and Detroit. Neither of those teams did **** in the draft and I suspect both of them will be as bad as last year or worse. The Raiders and Cardinals have a chance to be improved, IMO. But as I said your top 5 is solid.

Anyhoo, you took out Kouandjio for Taylor Lewan and dropped Nix III for Tajh Boyd. Let's do this.

Lewan is freaking nasty and has a chance to go first overall. Only reason I "snubbed" him is because everybody loves the SEC and I think Kouandjio is gonna be receiving plenty of love by the end of next year. Playing for a great team can boost your stock, and Alabama is gonna be plenty better than Michigan. That said, Lewan is a straight up stud and he very well could be a top 5 pick. With Kouandjio and Lewan it's basically six of one, a half dozen of the other.

Nix III/Boyd isn't as close, IMO. There's no doubt that Nix is an elite talent and would've been the first DL off the board this year, if he'd come out early. But Boyd still has something to prove, IMO.


On Lewan and Kouandjio, We've established that they're both pretty dang good but two things in Lewan's favor are his height and lack of injury history. Lewan stands at 6 8 vs 6 6 and also lacks the serious injuries that Kouandjio has had. Just might be something it comes down to.

Also Lewan will be protecting a pocket passer finally and that should elevate his stock. Although Denard was really fun to watch, he's a nightmare to pass protect for. Devin Gardener should have the ability, because of his more pocket like style and ability to get rid of the ball rather than scramble and take sacks, to make Lewan look better and also provide better insight to his abilities. This should help elevate his stock.

Boyd over Nix III is more a matter of need analysis. The Browns currently have Brandon Weeden backed up by Jason Campbell. Neither of those guys is going to lead them over the other 3 teams in the division. However they just drafted Phil Taylor a few years back and he's their big hog molie up the gut in their 3-4. But the 3-4 only takes one DT and at 6 3, 326 I don't think Nix III is coming off the edge for them.

That's why it broke that way for me.


The argument you used to support Lewan (passing for a pro-style QB) is actually one that I was gonna use myself with Kouandjio. Cyrus will obviously be blocking for AJ McCarron and TJ Yeldon and assuming Bama remains a top 5 team I think Kouandjio will get enough big time exposure that it'll send him over the top.

Course I could be wrong, but in all honesty Lewan and Kouandjio are a wash anyway, so let's move onto the other discrepancy...

Louis Nix III vs. Tajh Boyd.

Boyd has put up some shiny numbers over the last year or two, but there are a few things that will hurt his draft stock.

Number one, his size. Clemson generously lists him as 6'1, but in reality he's probably a shade under six feet. Which will kill him at the Combine or Clemson's Pro Day, which Boyd decides to participate in. Size is critical for QBs (at least in NFL GMs' minds) and regardless of how much he tears it up Boyd will still face doubters because he's somewhat smaller in stature.

Nix is exactly what you want in a DT.

6 foot 3, 336 pounds, and strong as an oxe. Nix is virtually immovable in the center of the defensive line.

Boyd will have question marks, Nix will not.

Good TD.


You bring up Boyd's height. let's be honest. there's one player that simply DESTROYS that stupid height of a QB argument. And the best part is that they're similar players in terms of style.... I'll give you 2 seconds... yep, we've all got it. Russell Wilson.

Height of QB used to be such a big en vogue idea, but Russ has proved it entirely wrong. When you've got the ability to throw threw the windows presented, it doesn't matter. Boyd's got that. In reality, Boyd has exactly what you want in a QB. He's got accuracy and manueverability, arm strength and moxie, leadership and poise (hello Chick Fil A bowl win over LSU). The kid's stock is through the roof due to his intangibles plus his talent. He's a sure fire top 10 right now no matter what.

Now we get down to the real nitty gritty. Both are outstanding players when looking at Nix III and Boyd. But one plays the sexy position and that's Boyd. Let's be honest, we are all entranced by dual threat QB's and Boyd is just that. Not only did he pass for almost 3900 yards and 36 TD's, but he also rushed for 500 yds and 10 TD's. Boyd will come off the board first due to his position and overall obsession with dual threat ability.

May 1, 2013  12:22 PM ET

this one should be kinda fun. total conjecture but kinda fun. Anybody think Clowney would really ever contemplate sitting out part or all of this year at all? or more so if he gets a little dinged up?

May 1, 2013  12:53 PM ET

So right is saying that the Raiders will only give Wilson and Flynn one year to prove one of them is a starter before going QB in the first round. hmmmm.........


If Al Davis was still alive, I might agree in a heartbeat but he's not, so I can't see them giving up on both of them after only one season!!!!!!

May 1, 2013  12:56 PM ET
QUOTE(#2):

So right is saying that the Raiders will only give Wilson and Flynn one year to prove one of them is a starter before going QB in the first round. hmmmm.........If Al Davis was still alive, I might agree in a heartbeat but he's not, so I can't see them giving up on both of them after only one season!!!!!!

Missread right's agrument #1 slightly. Left is saying Raiders might give up not will give so they'll go OL. I'd say QB won't even be a concideration for the Raiders next year at all.

May 1, 2013  03:31 PM ET
QUOTE(#3):

Missread right's agrument #1 slightly. Left is saying Raiders might give up not will give so they'll go OL. I'd say QB won't even be a concideration for the Raiders next year at all.

its a qb league and flynn's contract is only guaranteed for one year so they can cut him. wilson is a rook so you never know how long theyll take to develop and its not like he was a sure fire prospect.

May 2, 2013  01:23 AM ET
QUOTE(#1):

this one should be kinda fun. total conjecture but kinda fun. Anybody think Clowney would really ever contemplate sitting out part or all of this year at all? or more so if he gets a little dinged up?

Definitely.

I say no.

May 2, 2013  01:27 AM ET
QUOTE(#4):

its a qb league and flynn's contract is only guaranteed for one year so they can cut him. wilson is a rook so you never know how long theyll take to develop and its not like he was a sure fire prospect.

Which is funny. A year ago this time I would've thought Wilson had probably just been a top ten pick, along with Matt Barkley and possibly even Tyler Bray.

Not so much.

We got EJ in the first round and that was it. Everybody else slipped like mad. Pretty crazy how things change so drastically in a year's time. That said, I do expect several of the peeps we mentioned to still be viewed as top picks, especially Clowney and Bridgewater.

But if history has taught us anything it's that you just never know. Still, this kind of TD should be kinda fun to do, as kalbrecht said.

May 2, 2013  09:49 AM ET
QUOTE(#5):

Definitely.I say no.

I feel that way too right now but I just get a weird vibe from him like if the team struggles and he falls out of the heisman running plus gets dinged that he would be content to save his draft status by not risking injury. Kind of a tough spot for him since hes known he'll be the consensus best player when he leaves yet he has to keep coming back and risking his future.

May 2, 2013  01:17 PM ET
QUOTE(#4):

its a qb league and flynn's contract is only guaranteed for one year so they can cut him. wilson is a rook so you never know how long theyll take to develop and its not like he was a sure fire prospect.

I thought the Raiders gave Flynn more guaranteed years than that so that makes sense. I don't think they should give up on a rookie after just one year but I guess that's how it is nowadays.

May 2, 2013  02:26 PM ET
QUOTE(#8):

I thought the Raiders gave Flynn more guaranteed years than that so that makes sense. I don't think they should give up on a rookie after just one year but I guess that's how it is nowadays.

they gave him a 2 yr but the second wasn't guaranteed. bigger cap hit first year though. i wouldn't say they're giving up on him necessarily but if they view him as a bigger project, maybe another qb to start now isn't a bad thing

 
May 3, 2013  07:14 AM ET
QUOTE(#8):

I thought the Raiders gave Flynn more guaranteed years than that so that makes sense. I don't think they should give up on a rookie after just one year but I guess that's how it is nowadays.

Used to be you gave a guy 3 years before giving up on him and moving on.

But I think with so many young QBs having instant success, like Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III, the learning curve is no longer there.

I'm sure you could also apply this to guys like Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick who sat the bench for one or more seasons, and then came out on fire when they finally got their opportunity.

I don't believe that's necessarily fair to most young quarterbacks to expect them all to live up to these hefty expectations in year one. Because most of those guys mentioned above went to good situations, with loaded/stacked teams already in place when they arrived. But fair or not, I believe that the precedent has been set.

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