- 05/06/2013, 01:23AM ET
Marlins Fan said 05/06, 01:41 AM
Pick three players who you imagine will have the best fantasy football seasons from among the entire 2013 draft class.
This is the guy Rams fans have been dreaming of for the last several years, basically ever since Ike Bruce, Torry Holt and Az-Hakim all left town. St Louis has a really good foundation in place and on paper it appeared all that was missing were a skill position stud or two. Austin definitely seems to fit the profile and it's a pretty good bet that Bradford will targer him frequently right off the bat.
This is more based off total points than anything else but Manuel has a chance to lead all rookies in fantasy points simply because he has a great shot at starting and as a quarterback he's bound to rack up points faster than just about anybody else who plays a different position.
Ideal situation for Ball, landing in Denver. To be fair his production as a rookie might not be as overwhelming as some are predicting, mainly because Denver has so many options on offense, but along with Eddie Lacy he landed in of the two best spots of any rookie RB. He'll probably rack up some good fantasy points.
kalbrecht17 said 05/06, 12:39 PM
The main issue I see with this is the line "best fantasy football season". When only comparing rookies, really then it should be all the QBs who have a chance to start since they rack up points so fast. However, if you're rolling with a rookie QB, most times you're losing games. And that, my friend, is the absolute lack of fantasy bust.
Due to this, I remove EJ Manuel from your list (and I'll hit the reasons why later although he does have some great potential) and sub in DeAndre Hopkins, WR for Houston.
The kid landed in an awesome spot. Really no competition for the starting spot plus he gets to play alongside Andre on a team that defenses load the box against, so he won't be seeing any double teams ever. Given that, he's going to be flying open deep on PA quite often and we all know the big play=major fantasy success.
I would like to argue Eddie Lacy over Ball, but so much of that depends on what Denver does with Willis. So given that i'll leave it be. Austin there is no argument against, I see him being the best rook this year.
So other "honorable mentions". Lacy, Leveon Bell could really succeed in Pitt, Patterson in Minny could light it up.
Marlins Fan said 05/06, 04:23 PM
You're right about the quarterbacks; obviously QBs rack up FF points more quickly than any other position. Which is why I'm surprised to see you take EJ off the list. He will almost definitely be starting so his fantasy points will probably come in bunches, and he might be the only rookie Qb starting.
But you took him off and substituted DeAndre Hopkins, the wide receiver from Clemson who now plays for the Texans. Hopkins is an extremely talented player and playing in Houston gives him a good chance to put up nice numbers.
That said, he's still a wide receiver. Not really sure how to argue this because it seems too easy, almost like a setup or something.
Wide receivers don't do as well in fantasy as quarterbacks. It's just a fact.
Take last year, for example. Calvin Johnson had one of the most prolific seasons for a wide receiver of all time. More yards than any other WR, ever. And he couldn't even crack the top 25 scorers for the 2012 fantasy season.
Moreover out of the top 25 scorers, 19 of them were quarterbacks.
Clearly QBs rack up a heck of a lot more points than receivers, so I feel extremely confident in saying that Manuel will outperform Hopkins.
kalbrecht17 said 05/06, 05:41 PM
The way I look at BEST season, is in a comparative analysis of who you could start against him. Let's be honest, who is going to be wanting to start Manuel week one? That's why I was qualifying this saying that often rookie QBs are the bane of fantasy since when trying to adapt, they can kill you fantasy wise. So I'm not counting this in terms of pure "numbers" in fantasy otherwise we both should've listed the 3 QBs with any chance to start (Manuel, Smith, and Tyler Wilson) just be virtue of that even if they only start 8 games at a modest 15 points a game, they will score 120 points and only 26 WRs scored above this, and most likely Montee Ball won't get close since he's competing for touches. This would make the lists as a whole both crap.
So I don't equate "best fantasy season" with simply scoring the most points. You bring in Calvin, just like I'd hoped. You going to tell me last year that Johnson's season was, fantasy-wise, equal to Carson Palmer's, to whom he had equivalent points? Hell to the No. Its all about value at the position as compared to who you could start in their place. EJ will be in the lower half of QBs and that doesn't scream best fantasy season at all.
Marlins Fan said 05/06, 07:17 PM
Um... apparently you didn't like my TD topic so you tried to change it?
I don't know, man. I don't know what to say.
Good luck in the voting.
kalbrecht17 said 05/06, 07:36 PM
By measuring best, as I've said, I'm looking comparatively to the next best guys in the field. I see Geno starting at some point early in the year, if not week 1. Given that, plus the fact that EJ might not start immediately, leads me to say that EJ won't be the best fantasy selection due to the fact that he isn't that valuable comparatively.
I picked Hopkins because he is starting for a team that badly needs a number 2 guy and he fills that void. He will get all 1 on 1 opportunities due to Andre Johnson and there will be safeties in the box to stop Foster. This just screams of huge opportunity for him. The only WR I see being a better option you listed in Tavon Austin. He should have the chance to really light it up for a StL team that will be throwing a lot to keep up with Seattle and San Fran. Patterson has a small chance but the Vikes don't throw and we don't get return points. (in our league anyways)
I didn't change anything, merely was pointing out that just fantasy "points" isn't a good way to measure this all just because then I would pick all QBs because they'll score higher. I had no problem with your premise, this is how i view best, as do most fantasy players.
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