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  • 07/24/2013, 03:33PM ET

2012 Fantasy Football stud most likely to be even better, MUCH better in 2013.

Marlins Fan (156-78-31) vs 7#bag _ Com (997-338-74)
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I'm definitely going with Megatron. Calvin Johnson, to those of you who don't care for nicknames.

Here's why.

For one thing, Detroit's offense should be much improved this year. Adding a dynamic dual threat player like Reggie Bush is gonna open up opposing defenses for the Lions even more than usual. The opposition is gonna have a lot harder time doubling or even tripling Megatron when you have someone like Bush popping out of the backfield and threatening to score virtually every time he touches the ball.

Not only that but Matthew Stafford is due for a not insignificant amount of regression to the mean, which in his case actually has less to do with regression and more with ascension. Stafford put up paltry numbers in 2012 and I would be shocked if he doesn't almost double his total number of TDs thrown.

Calvin Johnson is the most likely beneficiary of Stafford's potentially huge increase in TDs thrown.

When you add it all up, it seems reasonable and even practical to assume that despite his ridiculous numbers in 2012, Calvin Johnson will most likely greatly improve on those numbers in 2013.

More than any other player coming off a huge year.


I'm going with Drew Brees.

Why?

Cause Peyton is back,

I get the NFC West and AFC East instead of the NFC East and AFC West
My off games at Chicago (in October) and Dallas later in the year when everyone might be scrambling for jobs (and Brees dropped 34 on them last year in a win)

But it all comes back to Peyton, Brees went 5,177 pass yards, 43 TD in a year with 517 coaches??

Last year, Brees was down to 63.0 percent, which was his lowest rate in eight years. His yards per attempt fell from 8.3 to 7.7. (GL)

The Brees/Sean package averaged over 69% over the past 3 years.

And most places have him in the second round?

Please let me in those drafts. Easily a top 5 guy, and only Aaron should be in the conversation.


I buy the concept of Drew Brews having a good year with Sean Payton back as HC of the Saints. I highly doubt he improves on his 2012 numbers, though.

You're completely underestimating what Brees accomplished as a QB last year. 5,177 yards and 43 TDs is outstanding. Obviously. It's only happened once before in NFL history; in 2011, when Brees had an additional 299 yards and 3 TDs. With Payton as HC, I might add.

His "low" 63% completion was only 2.6% off his career mark of 65.6%. Can't expect a whole lot more improvement there. And in spite of his "low" completion percentage, Matthew Berry says Brees was top three last year in percentage of passes which were "on target". Berry didn't name his source so unfortunately you have to take him at his word. Or not. Sucks; wish I knew the source. Oh well.

Back to Calvin Johnson. In 2012 he was tackled eight times inside the five yard line, and five times at the one yard line.

Matthew Stafford saw his pass TDs decline from 41 in 2011 to 20 in 2012.

Despite setting an NFL record with 1,964 receiving yards in 2012, Johnson only managed five touchdowns.

Law of averages says Megatron is due.


"His "low" 63% completion was only 2.6% off his career mark of 65.6%. "

Slight problem there- you are counting his SD years- 5 years where he never cracked 3600 yards, much less the 4K PLUS he has done in New Orleans- not to mention his WORST completion percentage in New Orleans would be his second best mark in San Deigo.

I'm not underestimating what Brees Did last year- I'm picking a guy that per Sporting News and ESPN's Draft kit is a second pick. I just don't see it under any formula


I have 2 issues with Calvin Johnson.

#1 is Reggie Bush is overrated and he is not going to make anyone forget Barry Sanders- Lets also keep in mind he is stuck on the concrete that is Ford Field.
Let's also keep in mind that the Lions have to replace Jeff Backus, never an easy task to keep Stafford upright.

The Lions pick up the NFC East and AFC North to replace the NFC West and AFC South, they do get the Cardinals on the road- a team they dropped a Whopping 10 points on last year. Lets also keep in mind that the Vikings put some SERIOUS effort into that defense.

Law of averages? I'll take the schedule everyday.


Long story short, Drew Brees is coming off one of the all time great seasons in NFL history. As I mentioned earlier, only once has a QB posted stats on par with Brees' 2012 numbers, and even then it was only an increase of 299 yards and an additional 3 TDs.

The chances of Brees significantly improving on his 2012 season are virtually nonexistent. He would have to do something that's NEVER been done before, and although Brees is a talented QB in a great system there just aren't enough games on the schedule to imagine he'll do better than roughly 5,200 yards and 43 TDs.

With Megatron I just don't see the possibility of anything but improvement. Again, in 2012 Johnson led the League in being tackled inside the five AND being tackled at the one. 2012 was a statistical anomaly for Johnson; an outlier. It is almost a guarantee that Johnson will find the endzone more frequently in 2013, and adding an additional 5-10 TDs to his 2012 production would've almost been enough to win him the MVP.

Johnson WILL perform even better in 2013, simply because opposing defenses cant be counted on to stop him inside the five yard line like they did in 2012.

Sorry for the delay.


Long Story Short.

Since you have nothing on the Schedules, lets go into this thing you keep coming to about Calvin just CAN'T have this few TDs

Right?

Right?


You know, outside of the fact that He did it before

in 2007, when he had all of FOUR.

and in 2009, when he had FIVE.

and in 2012, when he had Five.

In HALF his seasons he's had 5 or less TDs- Yes he does have double digit TDs in the other half, but he's a 50/50 shot to get crud.

Let me throw one more stat at you- He caught 122 balls last year- 26 more than he has EVER caught. He's NEVER gone over a 100 balls, and he's only cracked EIGHTY twice.

So yes Johnson HAS been stopped from hitting the endzone time and time again, he hit rarified air last year with his receptions, and good luck on him doing that again with a MUCH harder slate.

July 24, 2013  11:30 PM ET

What a sad state of affairs here at what used to be FanNation. It's become the Detroit of the internet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwELajFteTo

July 24, 2013  11:31 PM ET

July 25, 2013  03:19 AM ET

i just can't see it happening that megatron goes even more nuts. he had some pretty off the charts games to do it and its not like teams will stop covering him with bush. plus every team in the nfc north is picking up dbs solely to stop him. id say he could maybe get close to the same, but to be much better id say is stretching it.

July 25, 2013  11:41 AM ET

He won't do better. Last year he was all the lions had at WR thanks to injury. Plus they couldn't run. Every play they ran, they tried to throw to him. That won't happen again. Plus he had a near historic season, he won't be better statistcally.

Comment #5 has been removed
July 26, 2013  01:42 AM ET

Then one gets knocked out by left's second argument,
left's second argument, left's second argument.

July 26, 2013  01:44 AM ET

Just kidding, sevennumbersignbag underscore Com.

July 26, 2013  06:25 AM ET

AR12

CK7

AL12

PM18

A.J.G18

July 26, 2013  07:13 AM ET
QUOTE(#8):

AR12CK7AL12PM18A.J.G18

Bingo?

July 26, 2013  12:14 PM ET

since when is Bush an elite game changer?

July 26, 2013  02:42 PM ET
QUOTE(#10):

since when is Bush an elite game changer?

I don't know, why, did someone say that?

July 26, 2013  05:40 PM ET

I didn't like the Johnson pick because he really can't do much better than last year. I know his TDs were low but he set the record for yards by a receiver and if Bush is an upgrade in the run game that means fewer pass attempts and less production from Johnson not more.

But then right chose Brees, who was the #1 scorer in fantasy last year. How can he do "MUCH" better than he already did? As the top scorer he has nowhere to go but down, and if he does score more it will only be slightly better not MUCH better,

If you're looking for someone who is a considered a fantasy stud to have a big improvement from last year the answer is Ray Rice, who is coming off the worst season of his career with the fewest rushing yards, catches, and receiving yards in any of his 4 seasons as a starter. He should improve in all 3 areas this season and if you're comparing points scored last season and this season he will probably have a larger differential than both of your picks.

July 26, 2013  05:44 PM ET

LeSean McCoy comes to mind too. I know last season was a huge disappointment and in Chip Kellys offense he has the potential to put up some big numbers. I just don't consider him a fantasy superstar yet after 1 elite season or I would say him over Rice based on the possible difference between what he did last year and this one.

July 26, 2013  09:10 PM ET

July 27, 2013  08:32 AM ET
QUOTE(#12):

I didn't like the Johnson pick because he really can't do much better than last year. I know his TDs were low but he set the record for yards by a receiver and if Bush is an upgrade in the run game that means fewer pass attempts and less production from Johnson not more.But then right chose Brees, who was the #1 scorer in fantasy last year. How can he do "MUCH" better than he already did? As the top scorer he has nowhere to go but down, and if he does score more it will only be slightly better not MUCH better,If you're looking for someone who is a considered a fantasy stud to have a big improvement from last year the answer is Ray Rice, who is coming off the worst season of his career with the fewest rushing yards, catches, and receiving yards in any of his 4 seasons as a starter. He should improve in all 3 areas this season and if you're comparing points scored last season and this season he will probably have a larger differential than both of your picks.

I just don't see that happening b/c the Ravens offense now revolves around Flacco not Rice.

July 27, 2013  11:41 PM ET
QUOTE(#15):

I just don't see that happening b/c the Ravens offense now revolves around Flacco not Rice.

The Ravens have 1 legit wr in Smith and Pitta just had a major injury so he lost his top TE. The only good passing options Flacco has are Smith, Dickson and. . . Rice. No more Boldin and Pitta was supposed to soften that loss. Rices receiving totals just went up with this injury and probably his rushing attempts too

July 27, 2013  11:45 PM ET
QUOTE(#12):

I didn't like the Johnson pick because he really can't do much better than last year. I know his TDs were low but he set the record for yards by a receiver and if Bush is an upgrade in the run game that means fewer pass attempts and less production from Johnson not more.

Funny thing about the low (for him) touchdown number last year...

Half way through last season people were claiming he was having a bad year.

July 28, 2013  06:47 AM ET
QUOTE(#16):

The Ravens have 1 legit wr in Smith and Pitta just had a major injury so he lost his top TE. The only good passing options Flacco has are Smith, Dickson and. . . Rice. No more Boldin and Pitta was supposed to soften that loss. Rices receiving totals just went up with this injury and probably his rushing attempts too

Hadn't heard about the Pitta injury. I agree that Rice's receiving totals will go up but more rushing attempts don't automatically equal more yards. With Boldin gone and Pitta out teams can stack the box against the run. Plus there were parts of several games last year where Rice completely disappeared from the offense. That may have been b/c of the old OC but then again maybe not.

July 28, 2013  01:00 PM ET

brees' numbers can only go so much higher, where megatron's can be altered in a huge fashion....I GUARANTEE he scores more td's, although he may get less yds they will be more important as the lions find their way back to the playoffs while finishing only 1 game behind the packers...I don't throw bush into the equation due to injury potential, line issues, and potential rb td steals...brees will be battling for a wild card berth as well, but falling short due to his defense not getting the ball enough and a combative schedule--therefore calvin gets it

 
July 28, 2013  06:18 PM ET

Despite all of the good commentary from the peanut gallery, and some real good alternate ive players suggested for this throwdown, the debate is between Johnson and Brees.

I can't see either of these two being "MUCH better" than last year.

In the context of this TD, I'd have to give the edge to Johnson as having the better opportunity to put up more fantasy points than last year only because he can substitute increased touchdown points for lost yardage points...and that depends on the scoring system used in any given league.

I think the overall improvement in Detroit's offense will make Johnson's fantasy production drop. I also think that New Orleans will have an improved defense this year, taking away the reckless need of the offense to put up ridiculous numbers.

I look for both Johnson and Brees to have a slight drop in their numbers this year.

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