- 07/24/2013, 03:33PM ET
Marlins Fan said 07/24, 03:33 PM
I'm definitely going with Megatron. Calvin Johnson, to those of you who don't care for nicknames.
For one thing, Detroit's offense should be much improved this year. Adding a dynamic dual threat player like Reggie Bush is gonna open up opposing defenses for the Lions even more than usual. The opposition is gonna have a lot harder time doubling or even tripling Megatron when you have someone like Bush popping out of the backfield and threatening to score virtually every time he touches the ball.
Not only that but Matthew Stafford is due for a not insignificant amount of regression to the mean, which in his case actually has less to do with regression and more with ascension. Stafford put up paltry numbers in 2012 and I would be shocked if he doesn't almost double his total number of TDs thrown.
Calvin Johnson is the most likely beneficiary of Stafford's potentially huge increase in TDs thrown.
When you add it all up, it seems reasonable and even practical to assume that despite his ridiculous numbers in 2012, Calvin Johnson will most likely greatly improve on those numbers in 2013.
More than any other player coming off a huge year.
7#bag _ Com said 07/25, 02:05 PM
I'm going with Drew Brees.
Cause Peyton is back,
I get the NFC West and AFC East instead of the NFC East and AFC West
My off games at Chicago (in October) and Dallas later in the year when everyone might be scrambling for jobs (and Brees dropped 34 on them last year in a win)
But it all comes back to Peyton, Brees went 5,177 pass yards, 43 TD in a year with 517 coaches??
Last year, Brees was down to 63.0 percent, which was his lowest rate in eight years. His yards per attempt fell from 8.3 to 7.7. (GL)
The Brees/Sean package averaged over 69% over the past 3 years.
And most places have him in the second round?
Please let me in those drafts. Easily a top 5 guy, and only Aaron should be in the conversation.
Marlins Fan said 07/26, 01:40 AM
I buy the concept of Drew Brews having a good year with Sean Payton back as HC of the Saints. I highly doubt he improves on his 2012 numbers, though.
You're completely underestimating what Brees accomplished as a QB last year. 5,177 yards and 43 TDs is outstanding. Obviously. It's only happened once before in NFL history; in 2011, when Brees had an additional 299 yards and 3 TDs. With Payton as HC, I might add.
His "low" 63% completion was only 2.6% off his career mark of 65.6%. Can't expect a whole lot more improvement there. And in spite of his "low" completion percentage, Matthew Berry says Brees was top three last year in percentage of passes which were "on target". Berry didn't name his source so unfortunately you have to take him at his word. Or not. Sucks; wish I knew the source. Oh well.
Back to Calvin Johnson. In 2012 he was tackled eight times inside the five yard line, and five times at the one yard line.
Matthew Stafford saw his pass TDs decline from 41 in 2011 to 20 in 2012.
Despite setting an NFL record with 1,964 receiving yards in 2012, Johnson only managed five touchdowns.
Law of averages says Megatron is due.
7#bag _ Com said 07/26, 09:56 PM
"His "low" 63% completion was only 2.6% off his career mark of 65.6%. "
Slight problem there- you are counting his SD years- 5 years where he never cracked 3600 yards, much less the 4K PLUS he has done in New Orleans- not to mention his WORST completion percentage in New Orleans would be his second best mark in San Deigo.
I'm not underestimating what Brees Did last year- I'm picking a guy that per Sporting News and ESPN's Draft kit is a second pick. I just don't see it under any formula
I have 2 issues with Calvin Johnson.
#1 is Reggie Bush is overrated and he is not going to make anyone forget Barry Sanders- Lets also keep in mind he is stuck on the concrete that is Ford Field.
Let's also keep in mind that the Lions have to replace Jeff Backus, never an easy task to keep Stafford upright.
The Lions pick up the NFC East and AFC North to replace the NFC West and AFC South, they do get the Cardinals on the road- a team they dropped a Whopping 10 points on last year. Lets also keep in mind that the Vikings put some SERIOUS effort into that defense.
Law of averages? I'll take the schedule everyday.
Marlins Fan said 07/30, 06:20 PM
Long story short, Drew Brees is coming off one of the all time great seasons in NFL history. As I mentioned earlier, only once has a QB posted stats on par with Brees' 2012 numbers, and even then it was only an increase of 299 yards and an additional 3 TDs.
The chances of Brees significantly improving on his 2012 season are virtually nonexistent. He would have to do something that's NEVER been done before, and although Brees is a talented QB in a great system there just aren't enough games on the schedule to imagine he'll do better than roughly 5,200 yards and 43 TDs.
With Megatron I just don't see the possibility of anything but improvement. Again, in 2012 Johnson led the League in being tackled inside the five AND being tackled at the one. 2012 was a statistical anomaly for Johnson; an outlier. It is almost a guarantee that Johnson will find the endzone more frequently in 2013, and adding an additional 5-10 TDs to his 2012 production would've almost been enough to win him the MVP.
Johnson WILL perform even better in 2013, simply because opposing defenses cant be counted on to stop him inside the five yard line like they did in 2012.
Sorry for the delay.
7#bag _ Com said 08/01, 12:34 PM
Long Story Short.
Since you have nothing on the Schedules, lets go into this thing you keep coming to about Calvin just CAN'T have this few TDs
You know, outside of the fact that He did it before
in 2007, when he had all of FOUR.
and in 2009, when he had FIVE.
and in 2012, when he had Five.
In HALF his seasons he's had 5 or less TDs- Yes he does have double digit TDs in the other half, but he's a 50/50 shot to get crud.
Let me throw one more stat at you- He caught 122 balls last year- 26 more than he has EVER caught. He's NEVER gone over a 100 balls, and he's only cracked EIGHTY twice.
So yes Johnson HAS been stopped from hitting the endzone time and time again, he hit rarified air last year with his receptions, and good luck on him doing that again with a MUCH harder slate.
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