The Colts are currently listed as the underdogs with a point spread of five. I say that should not be the case.
The Big Cat said 10/30, 12:42 AM
Let me get this out of way immediately. They (Pats & Colts) are both great teams and they are both great QB's (Brady/Manning). Both teams have improved over last year. The Colts' running game is much better and the Colts' D is much better. Brady has better wideouts and a better offensive line. It is nearly impossible for me to see five points as a reasonable point spread. The Colts are the defending Superbowl champions, They too are undefeated and they are dominating teams on both sides of the ball as are the Pats. I won't predict a winner but again, five points is too much. I think there should be no spread at this time.
Wbcincy said 10/30, 12:47 AM
The point spread is set by Vegas in order to be as close as they possibly can to getting half the bettors to bet on the Colts, and half to bet on the Patriots. If the spread is wrong, the line will move based on which side is receiving heavier betting.
Personally I dont believe the line will move in the Colts direction, but may move further for the Patriots.
Your argument seems to be that the Colts somehow 'deserve' a better line, but the line is something determined by the bettors, and 5 is what is currently producing the most even results from bettors, therefore, it is the correct line.
The Big Cat said 10/30, 12:59 AM
Oh, I understand how and why it's done. It's till however; a matter of public opinion and I am very surprised to hear and/or see that the majority of people right now see the Pats over the Colts to that degree. From what I hear, read, discuss, etc..., many believe that the Colts should be the favored team. The bettors unfortunately represent the general public or are suppose to. My argument is that they (the Colts) "deserve" a better line and ultimately more respect.
Wbcincy said 10/30, 01:05 AM
If they 'deserved' a better line, they would be getting one. They are getting exactly what people believe they should get.
It makes perfect sense for you to be on one side of the argument, this is why the line is a good one, because there are just as many people on the other side.
I came into the TD with the argument being 5 is or is not the correct line, and that is what I am arguing. If you wished to argue that you dont think they'll lose by 5, that should have been the TD, not that the line was incorrect.
The line is correct, or Vegas would move it, so you cannot argue that its not the right line.
The Big Cat said 10/30, 01:27 AM
Oh well, I'll finish this tonight! My opening TD statement was and is an opinion regarding the Pats/Colts game next week (Sunday). What I am stating is that although the bettors are suppose to be representing the "public opinion," I don't see how there can be a spread of five points right now with the Colts as underdogs. When is the last time you saw an undefeated team (Superbowl Champions) as underdogs when all aspects of their team (game) has improved year over year? To me, it's off, way off!!!
Wbcincy said 10/30, 01:46 AM
So this is a no spin zone? Honestly, I'm not trying to spin your argument, just stating what I read the title to mean in its most literal sense.
If there were no spread as you suggested in your first argument, sports books would be getting killed with 80%+ betting going to the Patriots.
Why is this?
Is it just overhype because of the media love affair with the Patiots?
No, its because they're 8-0 against the spread this year, and thats with quite a few double digit spreads, granted they were against much lesser opponents.
Also, the Patriots have already played an undefeated team this year with a -5 spread...and they won by 21.
Avg game so far: Patriots-41 Opp: 16, Colts-32 Opp: 15
Finally, the Colts team has not changed dramatically from last season. They are still great, but are playing a hobbled Marvin Harrison right now. So this is basically the same team that needed a late comeback to beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are that same team...plus Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker. Those 4 are good enough for a 10 point swing from the AFC Championship IMO.
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Comments (111)
Can't argue with Vegas. They couldn't care less who wins or by how much. I also don't think you can characterize bettors as having the same opinion as the average fan. I'm pretty sure Colts fans think they are being "disrespected" while Pats fans probably think that line is too low.
With Marvin Harrisons health for the game still quite iffy, it's probably right where it should be to keep the incoming bets neutralized.
Cowboys-Celtics-Chisox | 10/30/07, 01:09 AM
Report Offensive CommentThe line has moved and the vote is in, Indy as it started out in some Casino's @ 7. Many smart people are voting Indy's way because usually when a line moves that much there is a reason. The reason is because indy truely is the better team and they are at home.
The Pats -7 started out because of all the hype that comes with the Pats this year and thats ok because
Indy-pendence day is coming to a TV set in your house soon.
Read my blog on Indy-Pendence day is the 4th of November.
http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/72775
out of here! | 10/30/07, 01:11 AM
Report Offensive CommentSorry Dwight, I'll keep watching your show.
out of here! | 10/30/07, 01:12 AM
Report Offensive CommentLOL! If only life were as fair as you think it is according to your first statement in your last TD argument.
FYI: If there were just as many bettors on my side, there would not be a spread like there is right now.
I did not say it was "incorrect." You used that term. I am purely speaking my opinion and the facts regarding the two teams.
My TD is what it is no matter what spin you try and put on it.
Me stating it should not be the case, which was clearly my opinion since I said, "I" in my opening TD statement.
I'll save my last TD comment for tomorrow morning.
The Big Cat | 10/30/07, 01:15 AM
Report Offensive CommentYes, YOU say the line should not be 5. Well the line is defined by bettors, so it should be whatever they determine it to be. Thats why you are wrong.
If you said "I think the Colts will beat the spread because its too high" or something of that nature, then you are arguing what you think the result will be, not that, using your words now, "a point spread of five ... should not be the case"
And yes, if half the people were on your side of the betting, the line would be perfect where it is, how can you say thats wrong?
Wbcincy | 10/30/07, 01:21 AM
Report Offensive CommentSince the goal of books is to have a line that puts half the people on side of the line, and half on the other, how can you say that I am wrong in saying that if half the bettors are on your side of the -5 line, and the other half on the other, that the line is not then correct..
Wbcincy | 10/30/07, 01:23 AM
Report Offensive CommentWBcincy that was possibly the best argument i have read on this site.
Good Job
Spak- Appy state is victim 1 | 10/30/07, 01:31 AM
Report Offensive CommentI said it before and I'll say it again. I stated an opinion expressing my disapproval of the spread. I don't beelive it is accurate or fair. I don't beleive the Colts should be underdogs. I beleive that if the good people on FanNation read all of my statements, they will see and understand what I am stating. I said what I meant and meant what I said!
I don't spin...
Good luck!
The Big Cat | 10/30/07, 01:32 AM
Report Offensive CommentOf course it was spak because I spanked you in another TD you thought you were going to take. That just was not the case now was it?
The Big Cat | 10/30/07, 01:35 AM
Report Offensive CommentI ran a sports book in my younger years and trust me Vegas has the NFL pegged to a T. I think the Pats will cover and then some.
buckybadger | 10/30/07, 01:41 AM
Report Offensive CommentThanks Woodson26! I get it...
The Big Cat | 10/30/07, 01:41 AM
Report Offensive CommentForget about what drives the spread. This was not about gambling on football. My TG was and is about the Colts not being the underdog. It's my "opinion" that the Colts are the team to beat. I don't agree with a five point spread. We all know both teams. We all know what they have and what they can do. If you beleive the spread is currently accurate at five or it should be higher than please, vote how you see fit but the spin my opponent put on this is not what eh TD is or was about.
The Big Cat | 10/30/07, 01:47 AM
Report Offensive CommentI tried to address my last argument to what you were saying you meant Big Cat.
Good TD, appreciate the discussion.
Wbcincy | 10/30/07, 01:49 AM
Report Offensive CommentOf course it was spak because I spanked you in another TD you thought you were going to take. That just was not the case now was it?
**** is your problem dude. You beat me in a TD. So have 13 other people. Do you want a cookie? His argument was a good one and i told him so. If i thought yours was one of the best i would have told you so. Dont be a **** bc i voted against you
Spak- Appy state is victim 1 | 10/30/07, 01:49 AM
Report Offensive CommentThanks! I understand your point(s). I just think we were off a bit until your last TD argument. Now, if that's what you believe, that's fine. I can respect that, I just don't know if others will. You're stating the Colts should be underdogs even more than they marked right now, right?
Good TD! Good luck!!! Go Manning and the Colts!!! There, I said it.
The Big Cat | 10/30/07, 01:53 AM
Report Offensive CommentNo, I think where it is is good. Sunday I thought that anything over a TD would be ridiculous, but honestly I wouldnt have been surprised to see it. It should be a great game, unfortunately I'll be on the road during it so I'll just be getting Mike Ditka's updates on ESPN on XM.....
Wbcincy | 10/30/07, 01:56 AM
Report Offensive Commentspak: Are you really serious? I was only teasing you a bit. I'm sorry! I didn't realize you took this that serious. You joked with me on another and I thought it was cool. No offense! I think you have had some very good TD's, heence your record.
It's cool...
The Big Cat | 10/30/07, 01:56 AM
Report Offensive Commentwoodson, i think you overestimate the chances they take. Casinos are in the business of making money, and the more formulaic they can do it, the better for them. They arent in the risk taking business, they're in the money making business, and they do it in the way that most consistently benefits them. They leave the risk-taking up to their customers, and we know who wins that.
Wbcincy | 10/30/07, 01:58 AM
Report Offensive Commento ok dude sorry about that comment then...to be honest with you im glad your on fannation. you come up with some good TD's. i hope i get a chance in the future to avenge my loss haha
Spak- Appy state is victim 1 | 10/30/07, 01:59 AM
Report Offensive CommentThanks spak, we're good. I look forward to more TD's. Have a good night!
The Big Cat | 10/30/07, 02:01 AM
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