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  • November 03, 2007 10:02 AM ET

TGC round 2- Which MLB team under .500 will make the playoffs next year?

EFB JAY CUTLER! (185-49-15) vs thejetstolehome: hiatus? (20-9-4)
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Im going St. Louis Cardinals.
Think about it, their division is the worst in baseball and they only were 7 games bak from the division league WITHOUT CHRIS CARPENTER. Next year the Cards will have their ace back and they have an EXCELLENT bullpen with Russ Springer and Jason Izzy. They were plagued by injuries this year. Rolen, Edmonds, and Carpenter were all out for long periods of time. If they can stay healthy and make some key adds in the off season, I say they got the division. They have Rick Ankiel from the start of the season this time.

Pujols had an "off" year and he was still crushing the ball. Imagine what will happen when he has a typical Pujols year with 45 homers 135 RBIs and batting .335. They really dont even have to worry about the Pirates, Astros, or Reds(as long as the Reds dont sign another pitcher). As long as the Brewers are still one of the worst fielding teams in the league then the Cards (who are an EXCELLENT defensive team) should be able to beat them out.


I'm probably gonna lose this anyway...but here goes.

I'm going to take an extreme dark horse and go with...the San Francisco Giants. Yes, I know. They were absolutely horrible last year and couldn't beat your kid brother's little league team.

However, their pitching is surprisingly pretty good having finished in the top of the NL in runs allowed, ERA, innings pitched, hits, and home runs allowed. As an added bonus, they finished third in both shutouts and complete games.

The Giants are in the 2nd worst division in baseball (don't confuse competititve with good, people) and they will be next year's Diamondbacks--a fluky team that can't score but is backed up by good pitching.

Tim Lincecum had a great rookie year (should finish third in the balloting) and he will definitely improve next year. Noah Lowry also had a solid year decreasing his hits, runs, earned runs, ERA, and home runs allowed while improving on his strikeouts. I think he'll have a good one next season.

Matt Cain was the most unlucky pitcher this year and karma will boost him up next year. His offense will finally come to his aid and he'll get the wins he deserves.


Now listen here Jet, Rajai Davis is my favorite player and will be MVP! Ok not really, but he is an extremly talented player.

You spent your whole argument talking about how good their STARTING pitchers are, but you failed to mention how incredibly awful their bullpen is.
Brad Hennesy was just terrible as a closer. His save percentage was under 80 %. Thats just not cutting it. 3.42 ERA isnt exactly what you are looking for in a closer either.

Steve Kline was supposed to be one of their best relievers along with Chulk, but Steve has a 4.70 ERA, more BB than Ks and only 17 Ks in 56 innings.

Now for Vinnie Chulk- a lot better, but still not good enough. High whip, and a 3.47 ERA

Now, their offense is just an embarassment. You can say what you want about Bonds and him being washed up, but a .500 on base percentage being filled in with a 350 will just make a HUGE difference. They now have absolutley no offense.
Their best hitter is Bengie Molina!
C- Molina
1B- Klesko
2B- Durham
SS- Vizquel
3B- Pedro Feliz
LF- Rajai Davis
CF- Dave Roberts
RF- Randy Winn

Hows that lineup looking jet?


Yeah, the offense is going to be terrible but I think they might just get fluky lucky like the D-Backs did last year and squeak out some wins with good starting pitching and very medicore hitting.

As for StL, aside from Pujols, their offense is really not too great. Ankiel had a great August but Sept/Oct were terrible for him. As much as I want him to succeed in the Majors, I don't think he's going to be anything special.

Jim Edmonds hasn't hit for his career averages since 2005. His power numbers are on a very drastic drop and I don't think he can be productive at a high level anymore. Scott Rolen needs to bounce back in a huge way to help an offene that finished in the bottom half of the NL in every category save for three.

Chris Carpenter is still a question mark. Yes, he's been GREAT in the past but after missing an entire year, I wouldn't expect him to just instantly re-gain Cy Young caliber form. Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes are just terrible. They, like the aforementioned Twins, are pretty sold in the bullpen but weak starting pitching. There's only so much a bullpen can do.


Well, I have NO clue what you are talking about when you say easy division. Dude, the Rockies have established themselves as a contendor as have the Padres. Not only do I not see them making the playoffs, but I see them coming in dead last place.....again. The NL West is a 3 team race and the Giants arent included as one of the teams. The NL Central is a 3 team race that most likely has the Cardinals as the front runners.

Alright, Edmonds has been stale, but his defense is just too great to ignore. Rolen still has it and he is one of the best fiedling third baseman in the league. His hitting will be back on par and all they really need from everyone is average. If they can keep par, Pujols can carry that team on his back like he has done so many times before.

I still believe that the Cardinals will make a big signing for a SP, but even if they dont, Carpenter doesnt need to be a Cy Young guy just needs to be consistently good, not great. 3.40 ERA is key for him. Adam Wainwright came up huge for the Cards last year dude. He had a 3.70 ERA and was 14-12 which is what they are really looking at for a #2 or 3 starter. Lets not forget about Mark Mulder either. He is comiong back f


The Rockies, Padres, and Giants will compete for a playoff spot, with the Rockies and Giants getting them. I believe SF will out pitch SD this year and they will both be absolutely horrible on offense. Again, let's not confuse competitive with good.

The NL Central will go to either the Cubs, who can still add the best player in baseball to improve off of last year. The Brewers had a great season (by their standards) and will improve off of that to capture the Division this year. They have been taking big steps over the past few years and this year will push them over the edge. Saint Lous will be left on the outside looking in.

As for Edmonds, he's getting old. His fielding took a HUGE dive this year and I wouldn't expect it to climb back up unless he can find the fountain of youth. He will struggle at the plate again and not be himself in the field.

I think we saw this year that Pujols cannot carry the team. As amazing as he is, he needs Rolen and Edmonds to hit, too. They didn't this year and that's why the Cards fell short. Edmonds is on the back end of his career and I don't expect him to hit his career averages again. (cont in comments)

Comments (23) Add A Comment

November 3, 2007  10:56 AM ET
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first argument cont'd:

Barry Zito had a pretty crappy year but after a year's adjustment to the NL, he will bounce back and be a big time pitcher this year.

Losing Barry Bonds will hurt the offense but it will help the clubhouse and get rid of a huge distraction for the team. Look for Rajai Davis (UCONN!) to put up decent number this year as a semi-replacement in the oF.

This is a very unlikely prediction, but anything can happen in Major League Baseball and the Diamondbacks are proof positive of the luck a team can have in the NL West. SF will get lucky next year.

November 3, 2007  10:57 AM ET
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Jet, Jet, Jet. I thought you were going twins man.

November 3, 2007  11:04 AM ET
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yeah, i did too but i wanted to go ballsy, haha. as much as i don't like Torii Hunter, i really think his loss might mess that team up.

November 3, 2007  11:09 AM ET
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and, aside from Johan, the pitching kinda drops off. Nathan and Neshek are great but until they can go 150+ IP, or they clone Johan four times over, the SP is suffering. also, i think it's way too early to do this kind of TD because we have no idea what's going to happen over the off season.

November 3, 2007  11:11 AM ET
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I won picking the A's in another TD like this.

Great arguments on both sides, but i have to wait to vote

November 3, 2007  11:12 AM ET
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dude they got Dennys Reyes and Matt Guerrier too. They are one of the best bull pens in the league

November 3, 2007  11:12 AM ET
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the A's...i just don't know about them. the division is pretty wide open but they're like the Twins--after their ace, the rotation drops off.

November 3, 2007  11:13 AM ET
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oh there's no doubt that their bullpen is fantastic, it's the rotation that worries me if i'm a Twin's fan.

November 3, 2007  11:29 AM ET
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How much longer before Jim shows up to defend his precious Cardinals?lol

November 3, 2007  11:53 AM ET
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how funny would it be to see the Giants win as soon as Bonds leaves. That would be great, and the truth is they are a much better team without him

November 3, 2007  11:56 AM ET
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BS, .500 OBP.

November 3, 2007  12:28 PM ET
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He is comiong back from injury next year and he was a huge part of the Cards success.

November 3, 2007  12:45 PM ET
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Samji says.....St Louis for they will get playas they need to become competitve again, but it amy not be enough to climb over the Mets or Phillies who should be Division and Wild Card teams.

November 3, 2007  01:01 PM ET
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Rolen could climb up and do well, but, again, two players is not enough.

Who is StL going to sign? The SP market isn't that great. Schilling could probably be alright but will a new GM want to go out and take a risk on an old pitcher? I'm not too sure of that.

The Giants young pitching will carry them through the season and into an unlikely playoff berth. They will be this year's Colorado: last place to the playoffs.

November 3, 2007  01:01 PM ET
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good luck, EF. how's about we do this one again come spring training?

November 3, 2007  01:05 PM ET
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Sure thing. Good luck to you too and you had some great arguments.

November 3, 2007  01:17 PM ET
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Cardinals have been a good bet to make the playoffs for the past decade- along with the Astros, they have been the class of the division for the past decade.

But the team needed much more than Carpenter this year to win. Their starting rotation was in absolute shambles and they need to add to it this winter. Carpenter, Mulder and 3 of the 5 guys they used this year isn't going to cut it.

While the division looks weak, the Cubs won 85 games and were without Soriano for 6 weeks of the season (2 at the beginning, 4 in the middle) Ramirez for a month (3 weeks in the middle, 1 in August) and without D-Lee for a few weeks as well. They also played half of the season with a catcher who hit under 200- and now they're adding the PCL player of the year in Geovany Soto. Even if he hits 250, it'll be an improvement over what they had.

...The Cubs won this division, and with exception to June and July, nothing really went right for the team, They should be a 90-94 win team next season. I don't know if St. Louis will be able to match that with just the return of Carpenter.

...But I'm a lot more positive that the Giants aren't going to win the NL West next year. So- as much as it pains me- I'm goin with the Cards.

November 3, 2007  03:24 PM ET
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Both aruements are very convincing and I want jets to be right, but I think theres more reason to believe that the Cardinals are going to be succesful. If you look at it the Giants are sort of in a rebuilding process...and all of that great pitching is an excellent start but even the D'backs got some offense at times this year. I'm thinking the Giants can be competitive this coming up season but playoffs might be a stretch

November 3, 2007  06:26 PM ET
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http://fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/26170

 
November 4, 2007  10:35 AM ET
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gah one hour left and i'm down by one. so much drama in the LBC.

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