Throwdowns > Completed
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- December 26, 2007 09:00 AM ET
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coltsfan1984 said 12/26, 09:00 AM
The Pats will not win the super bowl, because there are two great teams that stand in their way. Both the Colts and the Jags have a great shot at beating the Pats and both probably would. The Pats are probably going to have to face both of them and they may be able to beat the Jags, but then they will lose to the Colts.
Steelercooz said 12/26, 09:51 AM
I think they will, and I'm going to give you specifics.
For the sake of the first argument, let's send JAX to New England in the Divisional round.
As Dan Dierdorf mentioned approximately 4,153 times during the Jags' 29-22 win at Pittsburgh, Del Rio built them to travel north in the playoffs, and play Weather Ball (power running, run-stuffing defense).
That holds little substance despite having a lot of style when it comes to NE.
JAX succeeds almost always in running the ball (tops in the AFC at 153 ypg) and stopping the run (4th in the AFC, 96 yards a game). Great Weather Ball stats.
But...PIT ran the ball quite well against NE (181 yards) and NE ran the ball nine time.
NE won 34-13. Don't need to stop the run against the Pats. Ya gotta stop the big play. Can JAX do that?
Manning does not have Moss on his team, and he still threw for 547 yards in two games on JAX, and Indy won both of them.
What's Brady - the game's best cold weather QB - going to do, in front of his home crowd, after a week off? Probably something like 350 and four TDs.
Stat of the Season: Going into Week 17, NE is 15-0 when Brady starts. I'll take him any day in January.
coltsfan1984 said 12/26, 10:30 AM
The Jags are far too physical for the Pats. They can rush the passer very well and their corners are physical and can shut Moss down. If they do both of those, they could win easily. Also, their physical running game will wear down the old, aging Pats D. Everyone seems to have forgotten that the Colts dominated the Pats until the last half of the fourht quarter with a depleted team. If the Pats had to play the same amount of injuries the Colts did, the Colts would have won by more than 10.
Steelercooz said 12/26, 10:56 AM
The Jags are physical. I don't think their DBs share the toughness of their line and LB units. Therein lies the advantage for the Pats.
To counter the Jags' physical style, I would think NE will go after them the same way they did PIT - both have young players at FS (the talented R. Nelson in JAX). They can stay in their 3-WR set and groove Moss outside the numbers to set up Welker matched up with the nickel, or, God help you, a LB.
Brady has been sacked 20 times (fifth lowest in the league). Not only does that indicate his O-line has played well and his WRs get open, but it also shows how savvy a QB Brady really is. They haven't given up a coverage sack all year, and Brady will get rid of the ball before going down.
NE's LBs aren't overly tough, but they have such a tremendous front 3, they can still dominate the line. The key for them is in their secondary. Is Garrard going to get the ball to Williams and (snicker) Dennis Northcutt enough to get Harrison out of run support? Those guys will not get open consistently with as well as the Pats DBs are playing.
Like you said, ask the Colts, 54 minutes isn't enough to beat NE. You need 60 minutes of mean to match them.
coltsfan1984 said 12/27, 08:22 AM
Even if the Pats beat the Jags the will lose to the Colts. With Harrison and Ugoh back, the Pats D won't be able to stop the Colts O. With the Colts spped on D the can shut down the Pats. Also the Colts don't give up the big play which is what the Pats live on. If there is bad weather the Colts are more suited for that game than the Pats, because the Colts running game is far superior to the Pats.
Steelercooz said 12/27, 12:47 PM
Far superior running game...yeah, statistically, most would agree. However, Addai has about 300 touches this year, Maroney is now healthy and has about 170.
Who's going to be fresher?
Don't tell me you haven't thought about Belichick's ability to game-plan, and throw out something completely different. Wouldn't giving Maroney the ball 25 times throw a team for a loop?
Harrison is the opposite of that. He does not have his game legs because he hasn't played for 10 weeks. It doesn't look like he'll play Sunday, either. That gives him one game (Divisional) to play into shape and get that rhythm with Manning back before NE. He had a huge game against them in 2006, but was rendered ineffective in the playoffs, as per usual.
Maroney is in game-shape, at least. He's been practicing. Harrison has been rehabbing. Not the same thing. Harrison's best value is in helping create the big play. The last thing they want to do is trade punches with the best offense in the history of the game.
Addai is going to have to carry (limp) the load, and he's taken a ton of punishment this year. To ask him to carry it some more on the road against that team? Nah, I'll take the Pats.
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Jeisa Chiminazzo
Tracy Burns
Comments (24) Add A Comment
darn i wanted this one
Da Masta: retired
I Live In, NJ
Total Comments (2132)
A Colts fan saying the Colts will win.......Hmmmmm?????
Goodell: B-B-Bird is…
Nfl Headquarters, NY
Total Comments (6162)
Can you say flawed logic?
If the Jags beat the Steelers, they will play Indy in round 2.
NE gets the winner of the Chargers vs. Tennessee/Cleveland matchup.
The Ram
Pittsburgh , PA
Total Comments (8704)
the pats will win the superbowl. they will beat the colts in the championship game by like five or seven and then whoever they play in the sb they will beat by at least ten.
theback21
Joliet, IL
Total Comments (241)
something tells me sandiego will be heard from, last yr they were a 1 seed @ ne a 4 seed hmm, this yr. its reversed, sounds eerily similar. by the way I live in NE.
azcardsfan
Wilmington, M
Total Comments (748)
Iron Curtain
Coletrain
Total Comments (10955)
Yeah, that's my bad, I meant to put the AFC Championship game.
That's a simple mistake, not "flawed logic." The "flawed logic" in this case would be thinking Jacksonville matches up well with New England because they have a great run-stopping defense.
Steelercooz
St. Paul, MN
Total Comments (3669)
Steelercooz just pwn3d you
B0mb3rs (HoF)
Total Comments (4749)
Skins will beat them in the Bowl.......LOL
B0mb3rs (HoF)
Total Comments (4749)
Actually, when the Jags beat the Steelers, they will play New England, not Indianapolis unless Tennessee/Cleveland beats San Diego. It goes by seed, not by records. The Pats will end up having the tougher road than the Colts, who will get San Diego most likely.
IrishR#1
Total Comments (8588)
This was already addressed, Irish. Read my last comment.
Steelercooz
St. Paul, MN
Total Comments (3669)
And none of that is decided yet...not only do you make the leap that Jacksonville will be at Pittsburgh and not San Diego (who has not clinched the No. 3 seed yet), but you assume the Jaguars will beat the Steelers, even though Jack Del Rio's record against quality teams in their second meeting of the season is lower than any other coach with a few years under his belt.
But think whatever makes you comfortable. The point is this kind of turned into Jags at Pats, which would most likely be in the AFC Championship game (like you said, barring a Tennessee/Cleveland win over San Diego/Pittsburgh in the wild card round), if it was to happen. It makes no difference which round they face each other.
Steelercooz
St. Paul, MN
Total Comments (3669)
The Patriots would roll through the Jaguars with ease. You're not going to run the ball right at the middle of the Patriots line and have a chance when those guys come to play. Two years ago, the Jaguars went 12-4 with the #5 seed in the playoffs and Belichick purposefully lost in his final game of the season to make sure that the Patriots played them. What happened, a 28-0 shutout by the Patriots. Everyone was talking about how dangerous the Jaguars were back then. The Patriots offense ripped apart that Jaguars defense and they'll do the same.
The Colts were able to put a lot of pressure on Brady in their first game because when the Patriots helped out Matt Light with Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis ran right past Nick Kaczur and vice-versa. However, with Dwight Freeney hurt, they won't be able to put the same pressure on Brady. That's why the Patriots win comfortably the second time around.
Bah Humbug
Raleigh , NC
Total Comments (853)
By the way, the last time Jacksonville played the Patriots, the Patriots ran the ball pretty well. Laurence Maroney had a great day last year when they played the Jags. There was a 27 yard touchdown run where none of the Jaguars defenders touched Maroney.
Bah Humbug
Raleigh , NC
Total Comments (853)
I'm really rooting for the Jags because IMO they have the best chance of upsetting the Pats and if the Jags and Colts would meet in the conference finals the Colts would have another home game.
IrishR#1
Total Comments (8588)
The Colts pose NE the greater threat. They are finally built to win outdoors. They possess much more post-season experience than any other AFC competitor , NE IND games are usually decided in the 4th Q.
smackem
Charlotte , NC
Total Comments (1113)
Neither the Chargers, nor the Jags, nor the Steelers are upsetting the Pats. The Colts have a road playoff game at the end of January. Just hope Bob Sanders is at 100 percent, cuz he's going to have to play the greatest game of his career if Indy is going to Arizona.
Steelercooz
St. Paul, MN
Total Comments (3669)
The Jaguars have the best shot at New England because they have all the ingredients to play in cold weather, a punishing running game and a very good defense. They are the only team I could see beating the Pats in the playoffs. I truley don't like the Colts chances of winning, I know they are much more physical than those teams from 03/04, but I just cannot see the Colts marching into snowy windy Foxboro and beating New England. Just like Eli, Peyton plays poorly in the elements, just look at what he did in those games from 03/04, and even his performance in the rain against the Chargers. Speaking of the Chargers. I cannot imagine what Belicheck would do to Rivers. The Steelers would be lucky to be within 17 points of the Pats, and either the Titans or Browns would be oblivorated.
NYGiantsSBXLIICHAMPS
Rockville Centre , NY
Total Comments (2524)
Alright, disregard both of my arguments, Giants...I didn't get into everything about the Jags and the media-produced logic that they can win in cold weather. Bah made a good point in his comment, too.
I think Peyton's biggest problem with the elements in the team he's used to losing to in those elements. Pats are a damn good team, and I wouldn't think a possible Patriots win over them in the AFC Championship game would have anything to do with the weather.
Steelercooz
St. Paul, MN
Total Comments (3669)
I don't have to agree with your arguments. I respect them, you are obviously entitled to your own opinion, but I believe that you underrate the Jaguars chances. The Patriots are in big trouble if Jacksonville is in town and it is a nasty day. Maybe it was a fluke, but when they played the Jets in terrible conditions a couple weeks ago they were very uninpressive, as a four yard pick six and a blocked punt, as well as a McCairens bobble sealed the Jets doom. If the absolutly terrible Jets were that close to beating the Pats in New England, imagine what arguably the hottest team in the league that plays well in bad weather can do.
NYGiantsSBXLIICHAMPS
Rockville Centre , NY
Total Comments (2524)
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