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AP predicts when he'll break Emmitt's record

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07:11 AM ET 07.29 | Adrian Peterson isn't much for setting his sights low or subtly. Q: Forget about Eric Dickerson's record for a minute. Last December, we talked about Emmitt Smith's record and I told you you were on pace to get there in Week 4 of 2019. You said sooner and promised to come back with a timetable. Emmitt had 18,355 yards. You're now 9,506 away. We need a week and a year. When do you get there? A: Man. Oh boy. I have to do some calculations. I've been in the league seven years. I'm already right around [9,000]. Calculate it out -- Let's think. Maybe get a couple 2,000 yard seasons ... I've got ... Hmmm ... 2017. Q: What week in 2017? A: Man. I better go late. I'm already getting too far in front of myself. I'll say Week 16. There it is. Week 16 in 2017. Whoo. That's pushing it, huh?

Star Tribune

Adrian Peterson, Getty Images Adrian Peterson, Getty Images
July 29, 2013  07:31 AM ET

If AD stays reasonably healthy, he's the only one out there right now with a chance.

July 29, 2013  07:48 AM ET

A phenomenal comeback, to be sure(hgh), but the odds are so far against him it would be ridiculous to think he'll make it. Unless they count the yards while he's in the back of the ambulance.

July 29, 2013  07:52 AM ET

He can do it too.

July 29, 2013  07:59 AM ET

Half way in seven years stands to reason he'll need seven more to get it done. Got to be pretty durable to run 14 years in the league. If I were a gambling man I'd put the odds around 20-1.

July 29, 2013  08:04 AM ET
QUOTE(#1):

If AD stays reasonably healthy, he's the only one out there right now with a chance.

Projecting 5 seasons down the road though. Good luck to him.

July 29, 2013  08:07 AM ET

AP will break Emmitt's record when Tiger breaks Jack's. Not happening. The hard part for AP would be the last 3000 yards.

Comment #7 has been removed
July 29, 2013  08:19 AM ET

Emmitt also had a much stronger offense around him for most of his career. The defense had to respect the passing game, but not so much with the Vikings.

Comment #9 has been removed
July 29, 2013  08:42 AM ET

High aspirations. As his skills start to diminish (and they will ,father time waits for no one) he'll notice the early beatings will start to catch up to him. Not saying it cant be done but it's easier said.

July 29, 2013  08:57 AM ET

A great competitor and a good guy. I wish him nothing but the best. Still, the odds are stacked against him.

Oddly, Christian Ponder is the kind of guy who can help. The Vikings are not likely to throw the ball all that much.

July 29, 2013  09:01 AM ET

Sure, why not. Defenses are geared to stop the pass more and more and DBs that can tackle are the exception. They get the job because they can cover somebody.

July 29, 2013  09:33 AM ET
QUOTE(#12):

Sure, why not. Defenses are geared to stop the pass more and more and DBs that can tackle are the exception. They get the job because they can cover somebody.

A very overlooked point... Stopping the run isn't exactly the foremost objective anymore.

Could be an advantage.

July 29, 2013  09:34 AM ET

If you had to bet on any back to do it, he'd be the one, but that's a lot of yards and a lot of production after you turn 30.

July 29, 2013  09:37 AM ET

Emmitt Smith averaged 52 yards a game the last three years he played. Over those last 41 games he averaged 3.5 yards per carry. He played three years past his expiration date. If AP can find a team like Smith did with Arizona to extend his career, then, sure, he can do it.

July 29, 2013  09:38 AM ET
QUOTE(#9):

Need the oline bro, Emmitt didn't do it on his own.

Sanders didn't need the O Line, and we all know that record would be his if he hadn't hung them up early.

July 29, 2013  09:40 AM ET
QUOTE(#13):

A very overlooked point... Stopping the run isn't exactly the foremost objective anymore. Could be an advantage.

Sure is. And LBs spend more and more time in coverage or rushing the QB than they do in the run game. The game now is get to the passer. You can count on one hand the DE than plays the run as well as the pass. Osi syndrome. The money in the paycheck is from sacks, like home runs in baseball, and the defenses know it.

July 29, 2013  09:41 AM ET
QUOTE(#16):

Sanders didn't need the O Line, and we all know that record would be his if he hadn't hung them up early.

A most amazing player and a quality man.

July 29, 2013  09:50 AM ET
QUOTE(#15):

Emmitt Smith averaged 52 yards a game the last three years he played. Over those last 41 games he averaged 3.5 yards per carry. He played three years past his expiration date. If AP can find a team like Smith did with Arizona to extend his career, then, sure, he can do it.

If AP is at a point where he's close to breaking the record, the Vikes will keep him around so he can do it wearing Vikings colors. Jerry Jones did the same for Emmitt; at the end of that record-breaking season, Emmitt and J.J. parted ways.

 
July 29, 2013  09:52 AM ET

smith had much better team and OL. unlikely AP will catch emmitt! good to have goals, but he'd be better off keeping this one to himself until he gets closer.

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