Well, whatever. If it's OU, then it's OU. That's not really the point of what I posted.

True, but once you take money out of the situation (and neither program will generate huge revenue for whatever conference teevee deal they are a part of) then you have things like tradition and rivalries to consider. Money first, rivalry second, geography third. That's the decision tree for most of these conference maneuverings.

If the WAC lasts that long.......

Yeah, but I think Kansas and K-State will probably come as a package deal.

Even with the pickups of UTSA and TX State, they are still at 7. They need 8 to be a "real" conference.

Anyway, I'm sure the Big East would grab some CUSA teams as well as Kansas and K-State, so I guess Iowa State could end up in CUSA. It's either that or the MAC (basically the minor leagues) or the corpse of the WAC.

Oh, I agree. But what's he gonna do? Join the Pac-12? Follow A&M to the SEC?

If A&M goes, the northern Big 12 will head for whoever will take them rather than lose their BCS status. There won't be enough teams left to keep the Big 12 going once the teams up north defect.

Stupid map time!

http://bit.ly/p6VCJQ (Google Maps)

This is how the Big 12 falls apart:

The SEC makes it's move and goes to 14 teams:

- Texas A&M from the Big 12 to the SEC
- Virginia Tech from the ACC to the SEC

The ACC does what it always does - raids the Big East and goes to 14 teams:

- Syracuse from the Big East to the ACC
- Connecticut from the Big East to the ACC
- Rutgers from the Big East to the ACC

The Big East balances football and basketball and increases its enormous footprint (probably looks at a few non-BCS schools also, but that's for another time):

- Kansas from the Big 12 to the Big East
- Kansas St. from the Big 12 to the Big East

The Big East offers Missouri a slot, but the Big Ten decides it will grab the Missouri TV market and makes a better offer (the Big Ten is comfortable with an odd number of teams - it was at 11 for years and is now at 13):

- Missouri from the Big 12 to the Big 10

OU and OSU, tied at the hip, make the best deal available when the SEC says it only wants OU:

- Oklahoma from the Big 12 to the Pac-12
- Okla. St. from the Big 12 to the Pac-12

Texas finally realizes that their little sisters of the poor conference idea won't hold, goes indie:

- Texas from the Big 12 to Independent

The MWC is the best of a few less-than-good choices:

- Texas Tech from the Big 12 to the MWC, leaves BCS
- Baylor from the Big 12 to the MWC, leaves BCS

Nobody wants Iowa State.

As far as other sports:

ND parks the rest of it's teams in the Big East
BYU parks theirs in the WCC
Texas could put their teams in CUSA, WAC or MWC
USC could probably also join the WCC
FSU could use the Big East or CUSA

I have often thought these schools could go it alone in a confederation of independent football schools:

Notre Dame, Texas, Southern Cal, Florida State and BYU

Notre Dame and BYU for obvious reasons (nationwide fanbase predicated on religious affiliations), and Texas, USC and FSU for being national brands with huge financial advantages. They could control the games between themselves (that's 10 games) and then the games against their major rival when it's their turn to host (UT/A&M, USC/UCLA, FSU/UF, BYU/Utah, and ND/[TBD] So that's 2 or 3 games a year (depending on home vs. away). That's a slate of 12 - 13 games a year, if they are spread out.


If a network (cough NBC cough) wanted a blockbuster college football presence, this is the deal to make.

(And yes, BYU is not quite the superpower of the other four teams. But they'll be OK.)

I'll bet TCU is kicking themselves right now. If A&M bolts, the Big 12 would likely have tried to carry on by adding teams. It would have been hard not to add TCU right away.

If the SEC adds only A&M from the west, then they should look to capture a teevee market in the east.

People say that VT is part of the DC market, but it's not, not really.

Then there are the North Carolina-based teams, but the cream of the crop there is UNC, and it's hard to see the NC-4 breaking up.

Georgia Tech? I don't know enough about television habits in the state of Georgia, but I'd imagine that UGa does well enough.

Miami? The problem with Miami, the U's history aside, is that it's not really a college football town.

WVa? Pitt? Not really a blockbuster market.

That leaves me with my darkhorse: UofMd. It's in the DC teevee market by location, and it is the top college program in the Baltimore market because the schools in and around Baltimore are small. The problem with UofMd is that it's not really much of a football school. They'd get their asses handed to them by the SEC for years until they adjusted to the higher level of competition. And even then, it's not like Byrd Stadium will ever match the intensity of the football-is-religion schools down south. But if someone throws a pile of dirty, dirty teevee money at Maryland, I think they'd jump.