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DeLeah Caro
Melanie Fitzpatrick



It actually is a predictive model, and it is quite brilliant. Nate Silver came up with it and he is a genius with numbers. I think he made his name with baseball stats. The link is to the down and dirty. Here is his take:
Unlike other soccer ratings systems, SPI is explicitly designed to be predictive -- so a team like Argentina, which in fact struggled to qualify for the World Cup, won't be penalized that much provided the system is convinced that the talent is still there. The two main innovations in the SPI are to incorporate results from club play -- if Cameroonian striker Samuel Eto'o scores a goal for Inter Milan, it will (marginally) help Cameroon's rating -- as well as to incorporate a "competitiveness coefficient" based on the actual lineups that each team used in each match. The latter is important because international soccer clubs play a lot of matches -- friendlies, some second-tier international tournaments -- in which they're essentially sending their taxi squads in, which tell us very little about the teams that will actually be on the field in South Africa next year.
From the Article:
.. it would be quite a shame if a single number could tell us everything that we needed to know about a soccer team. SPI does not. It merely reflects the relatively limited statistical information that is available in international soccer, and does so in a way that is as fair and accurate as possible. In other words, SPI is designed to serve as a general guideline -- as a starting point for debates about team quality. It is not intended to be the ending point or to settle all arguments.
Sounds great, we will see how the model works out.
All those names in ~10 years. Cheapens it all. You will note the same thing, although to a much smaller extent, happened in Houston with Enron Field Astro's Field to Minute Maid Park. (The Ballpark at Union Station was always better)
Also, I think it is premature from 1 game against an 0-5 away team to say anything has turned a corner. I mean it was Tenerife, statistically almost the worst defending team in La Liga (Xerez is worse by GD). Also they had 9 points from 8 matches with a -7 or so GD.
Examples, IMO - Boswinga, Evra, Abidal to name a few (a very few) who defend decently well and can go forward well.
Some adapted well, but most were nothing but mediocre backs, and their defensive mistakes, in retrospect, hurt more than their offensive contributions.
I cannot find fault with that sentiment in any way.
Basketball was fun, and fast and I enjoyed it but used it primarily for sprint drills in the offseason for soccer.
In reality most kids stop playing soccer because it is far more demanding than pretty much any other sport we play in the states, with the exception of lacrosse and hockey. As the kids progress in ages and become faster and stronger, many realize they don't have the lower body coordination to do well. Humans evolved to have hand eye coordination, we throw sticks and rocks for a living, but nature never asked us to kick a rock at our prey. A good midfield player in a soccer match will run between 5.5-6 miles a game. All the while keeping the legs strong enough to make pinpoint passes and shots etc.. That is impressive to do, if you don't think so come on out and I'll run your *ss ragged.
In short I think you need to pay attention to how many pro-athletes are in to soccer. Welker and Moss doing soccer drills in NE (google it). Moss asked Welker his secrets for running clean routes and Welker said it was soccer that helped him the most. Kobe and KG and their love of soccer. Shaq apparently is a Benfica fan. Steve Nash's assistance with the slam dunk competition a few years back chipping the ball up to be dunked was classic. I am sure there are more.