valuearb's Comments

Posted Saturday November 24, 2012, About: Rangers waiting for D-backs to lower price for Justin Upton
Andrus is such a tremendous defender that it's made him a valuable player despite his limp noodle of a bat. But he hasn't improved every year, he was good in 2009 and terrible in 2010. And he hasn't been as valuable as Upton, despite Upton's inconsistencies.

Justin Upton is a valuable defender himself, while he is error-prone, he's had the best range of any right fielder in baseball over the last 4 years. And when healthy (he was hurt this year) he's a monster hitter.

Their contract situations are somewhat similar, Upton has another year of control at significantly higher salaries. Historically teams have paid around $5M for each win, given the revenues from the new TV deals, it's likely that will soon be over $6M. Based on their last 4 years that would make Elvis worth $17M a year and Upton around $20M a year. At that rate, Elvis is worth $23M in surplus value, and Upton, $22M.

But I think the higher upside still lies with Upton. He clearly is a top hitter when healthy, and combined with his defensive value makes him an MVP candidate. Elvis really needs to take a substantial step forward with the bat to be that type of player.
Posted Saturday November 24, 2012, About: Rangers waiting for D-backs to lower price for Justin Upton
Upton has been more valuable than Elvis Andrus and has more long term value with his contract. Ian Kinsler has little value with his megadeal.

Jason Kubel is a huge dud for the DBacks. His decent hitting barely offsets his awful defense, he's killing the DBack rotation when he's out in left field, and gives him barely more value than a AAA player. If the Rangers won't pay up for Upton, of course move Kubel, he can be replaced far easier.
Posted Thursday January 26, 2012, About: Jackson squarely on Red Sox radar
Edwin Jackson has been one of the top 40 most valuable MLB over the last 3 years. He's not an ace with amazing stuff or control, but is good and goes deeper into games and gives you more innings than the vast majority of starters. He's under appreciated because he broke in at age 19 with the Dodgers and scuffled it seems like forever, only becoming a solid starter 5 years later during his age 24 season, with Tampa Bay. In Tampa his results were probably understated by the tough opposition in the AL East (I saw one study that claimed on average he faced one of the toughest average opposing lineups in baseball during his years in Tampa). And obviously the trades haven't helped, he's been good enough to be desired, but he hasn't been good enough for teams to make a substantial long term commitment to keep him, and he's been flipped several times as his salary costs increased.

Last year he pitched more innings than any Boston starter and only Beckett averaged more innings per start (and barely). Boston's bullpen would love to have this guy in the rotation, he'll give them an extra inning of rest over what Wakefield and Lackey did last year. If the Sox weren't in such a payroll bind I think they would have already locked him up for a 4 or 5 year deal, if they are able to fit him in the budget I think he'll be the best #3 in baseball outside of Philadelphia.
Posted Thursday January 26, 2012, About: Jackson squarely on Red Sox radar
Edwin Jackson has been one of the top 40 most valuable MLB over the last 3 years. He's not an ace with amazing stuff or control, but is good and goes deeper into games and gives you more innings than the vast majority of starters. He's under appreciated because he broke in at age 19 with the Dodgers and scuffled it seems like forever, only becoming a solid starter 5 years later during his age 24 season, with Tampa Bay. In Tampa his results were probably understated by the tough opposition in the AL East (I saw one study that claimed on average he faced one of the toughest average opposing lineups in baseball during his years in Tampa). And obviously the trades haven't helped, he's been good enough to be desired, but he hasn't been good enough for teams to make a substantial long term commitment to keep him, and he's been flipped several times as his salary costs increased.

Last year he pitched more innings than any Boston starter and only Beckett averaged more innings per start (and barely). Boston's bullpen would love to have this guy in the rotation, he'll give them an extra inning of rest over what Wakefield and Lackey did last year. If the Sox weren't in such a payroll bind I think they would have already locked him up for a 4 or 5 year deal, if they are able to fit him in the budget I think he'll be the best #3 in baseball outside of Philadelphia.

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